Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cheriton, VA
May 19, 2024 4:23 PM EDT (20:23 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:51 AM Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 3:35 PM Moonset 2:40 AM |
ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 252 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening - .
Through 7 pm - NE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 foot at 11 seconds.
Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 foot at 11 seconds.
Mon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 foot at 11 seconds.
Mon night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 foot at 11 seconds.
Tue - E winds 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 foot at 10 seconds.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night - S winds 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 252 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system over south carolina graduall moves offshore though Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday and prevails through midweek.
a low pressure system over south carolina graduall moves offshore though Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday and prevails through midweek.
FXUS61 KAKQ 191904 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 304 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Drier weather is expected today, albeit with clouds persisting through much of the day. Dry conditions and a clearing sky return for Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle and end of the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Clouds temporarily scatter out later this evening, then build back in overnight. Lows in the mid-50s tonight.
- Patchy fog possible in the piedmont early tomorrow morning
Cloudy conditions persist this afternoon, though a few breaks in the clouds can be noted on latest satellite imagery. Sfc high pressure centered over Atlantic Canada is still ridging into the local area this afternoon while low pressure spins well offshore. Aloft, a positively tilted trough is slow to move offshore, its axis crossing into southeastern portions of the area. As the trough progresses E, dry air should filter into the area and allow clouds to scatter out more later this evening. Even with clouds, temps have managed to warm to near 70 inland and the mid-60s near the coast. Expect temps will gain a couple more degrees before the afternoon is over.
Scattered cloud cover is expected for the first half of the night, then clouds build back in late tonight and into early morning.
Guidance also suggests that patchy fog will develop in the piedmont tonight, but this should clear up shortly after sunrise. Lows tonight will be in the mid-50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland.
- A noticeable warming trend this week, though it remains cooler at the coast relative to inland locations.
Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds in and the sfc high over Canada shifts south.
Onshore flow will continue through Tues, though, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start.
Highs on Mon will be in the upper 70s in the piedmont, low-mid 70s in the E, and upper 60s immediately near the coast. Tues will have highs in the low 80s inland and low 70s at the coast. Will likely still see some gradient in temps Wed as winds shift to the SE, then S. Mid 80s are expected for most locations, but upper 70s to near 80 close at the coast. Lows will be in the mid-upper 50s during this period. Regarding cloud cover, starting out mostly cloudy Mon morning, then scattering out in the afternoon. Mostly sunny/clear skies for Tues and Wed.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
-A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms
-Warm with additional chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the weekend
Hot weather continues into Thursday as the ridge aloft gets suppressed/pushed offshore ahead of the approaching system. Highs will be close to 90 with slightly cooler temps in the Eastern Shore.
A cold front will then cross the region, bringing chances for thunderstorms. Still far enough out that there is some uncertainty in the timing and coverage of precip associated with the front, but global models are in general agreement that the frontal passage occurs Thursday night. Still maintaining Chnc PoPs moving from the NW in the afternoon and moving E later in the evening. Thunderstorms are probable given plenty of sfc-based instability. Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time given 40-50 kt of upper- level flow overspreading the region. Likely cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Still showing temps around 80 across northern counties and low-mid 80s elsewhere. Warm temps stick around through the weekend with highs around 80 both Sat and Sun. There will be daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms Fri- Sun, though uncertainty is high due to disagreement between global models in sfc and upper air features.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...
Widespread MVFR across the area this afternoon as BKN-OVC skies persist. Drier air will filter into the area as an upper level trough pivots offshore, allowing clouds to scatter out over much of the area this evening. Clouds are expected to build back into the area late tonight into early tomorrow morning. With the clouds come the return of flight restrictions with MVFR at the coast and potential IFR at RIC. Guidance also suggests formation of fog over the piedmont overnight, which may impact RIC. NE winds will persist at the coast through the period. Further inland, winds become light and varied overnight.
Outlook: Lower CIGs potentially lingering along the coast through Monday evening with flight restrictions possible. VFR expected elsewhere Monday. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.
MARINE
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Lingering SCA conditions over much of the coastal waters and lower bay due to seas.
- Generally quiet marine conditions starting Monday night and continuing for much of the week.
A high pressure ridge continues from New England south-southwestward through the Virginia Piedmont. Meanwhile, low pressure is over South Carolina and Georgia. This has led to persistent NE flow across all of the waters, with the strongest being mainly south of Cape Charles where the pressure gradient is strongest. As the low moves offshore later tonight into Monday, the high will gradually build southward, then eventually move offshore. Expect NE winds to persist at 10 to 15 kt tonight, then perhaps increase slightly on Monday to as high as 15 kt over the coastal waters. The persistent NE flow has allowed seas to build to 4 to 6 feet across the southern waters and 3 to 5 feet across the northern waters. Waves in the bay generally 2 to 3 feet (although perhaps up to 4 feet in the entrance to the bay).
These seas will continue through Monday, especially given the possible increase of NE winds forecast on Monday. Will leave all small craft advisories in place for now, although it is noted that north of Cape Charles the winds/waves are very marginal.
Better chances for 5 ft waves well north of Cape Charles may be on Monday.
Winds will turn southerly by Tuesday evening as the high shifts offshore. After Monday, am not expecting any further SCA for the remainder of the forecast period.
A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4- 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3- 4ft nearshore waves. Lower risk of rip currents for Tuesday.
HYDROLOGY
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell now expected to go to minor flood later this afternoon.
The river will likely stay in flood through tomorrow before falling tomorrow night and Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday....
Astronomical tides will gradually increase over the next few days.
With the persistent NE flow through Monday and water level anomalies already at 1 to 1.5 ft above normal, expect some nuisance to minor coastal flooding during tonight's high tide, and most likely again with the Monday evening high tide. Will issue a coastal flood advisory during high tide tonight the bay side MD eastern shore with a statement in Hampton Roads and the Northern Neck highlighting nuisance flooding with many sites reaching action stage.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654-656- 658.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 304 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Drier weather is expected today, albeit with clouds persisting through much of the day. Dry conditions and a clearing sky return for Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle and end of the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Clouds temporarily scatter out later this evening, then build back in overnight. Lows in the mid-50s tonight.
- Patchy fog possible in the piedmont early tomorrow morning
Cloudy conditions persist this afternoon, though a few breaks in the clouds can be noted on latest satellite imagery. Sfc high pressure centered over Atlantic Canada is still ridging into the local area this afternoon while low pressure spins well offshore. Aloft, a positively tilted trough is slow to move offshore, its axis crossing into southeastern portions of the area. As the trough progresses E, dry air should filter into the area and allow clouds to scatter out more later this evening. Even with clouds, temps have managed to warm to near 70 inland and the mid-60s near the coast. Expect temps will gain a couple more degrees before the afternoon is over.
Scattered cloud cover is expected for the first half of the night, then clouds build back in late tonight and into early morning.
Guidance also suggests that patchy fog will develop in the piedmont tonight, but this should clear up shortly after sunrise. Lows tonight will be in the mid-50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland.
- A noticeable warming trend this week, though it remains cooler at the coast relative to inland locations.
Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds in and the sfc high over Canada shifts south.
Onshore flow will continue through Tues, though, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start.
Highs on Mon will be in the upper 70s in the piedmont, low-mid 70s in the E, and upper 60s immediately near the coast. Tues will have highs in the low 80s inland and low 70s at the coast. Will likely still see some gradient in temps Wed as winds shift to the SE, then S. Mid 80s are expected for most locations, but upper 70s to near 80 close at the coast. Lows will be in the mid-upper 50s during this period. Regarding cloud cover, starting out mostly cloudy Mon morning, then scattering out in the afternoon. Mostly sunny/clear skies for Tues and Wed.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
-A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms
-Warm with additional chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the weekend
Hot weather continues into Thursday as the ridge aloft gets suppressed/pushed offshore ahead of the approaching system. Highs will be close to 90 with slightly cooler temps in the Eastern Shore.
A cold front will then cross the region, bringing chances for thunderstorms. Still far enough out that there is some uncertainty in the timing and coverage of precip associated with the front, but global models are in general agreement that the frontal passage occurs Thursday night. Still maintaining Chnc PoPs moving from the NW in the afternoon and moving E later in the evening. Thunderstorms are probable given plenty of sfc-based instability. Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time given 40-50 kt of upper- level flow overspreading the region. Likely cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Still showing temps around 80 across northern counties and low-mid 80s elsewhere. Warm temps stick around through the weekend with highs around 80 both Sat and Sun. There will be daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms Fri- Sun, though uncertainty is high due to disagreement between global models in sfc and upper air features.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...
Widespread MVFR across the area this afternoon as BKN-OVC skies persist. Drier air will filter into the area as an upper level trough pivots offshore, allowing clouds to scatter out over much of the area this evening. Clouds are expected to build back into the area late tonight into early tomorrow morning. With the clouds come the return of flight restrictions with MVFR at the coast and potential IFR at RIC. Guidance also suggests formation of fog over the piedmont overnight, which may impact RIC. NE winds will persist at the coast through the period. Further inland, winds become light and varied overnight.
Outlook: Lower CIGs potentially lingering along the coast through Monday evening with flight restrictions possible. VFR expected elsewhere Monday. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.
MARINE
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Lingering SCA conditions over much of the coastal waters and lower bay due to seas.
- Generally quiet marine conditions starting Monday night and continuing for much of the week.
A high pressure ridge continues from New England south-southwestward through the Virginia Piedmont. Meanwhile, low pressure is over South Carolina and Georgia. This has led to persistent NE flow across all of the waters, with the strongest being mainly south of Cape Charles where the pressure gradient is strongest. As the low moves offshore later tonight into Monday, the high will gradually build southward, then eventually move offshore. Expect NE winds to persist at 10 to 15 kt tonight, then perhaps increase slightly on Monday to as high as 15 kt over the coastal waters. The persistent NE flow has allowed seas to build to 4 to 6 feet across the southern waters and 3 to 5 feet across the northern waters. Waves in the bay generally 2 to 3 feet (although perhaps up to 4 feet in the entrance to the bay).
These seas will continue through Monday, especially given the possible increase of NE winds forecast on Monday. Will leave all small craft advisories in place for now, although it is noted that north of Cape Charles the winds/waves are very marginal.
Better chances for 5 ft waves well north of Cape Charles may be on Monday.
Winds will turn southerly by Tuesday evening as the high shifts offshore. After Monday, am not expecting any further SCA for the remainder of the forecast period.
A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4- 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3- 4ft nearshore waves. Lower risk of rip currents for Tuesday.
HYDROLOGY
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell now expected to go to minor flood later this afternoon.
The river will likely stay in flood through tomorrow before falling tomorrow night and Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday....
Astronomical tides will gradually increase over the next few days.
With the persistent NE flow through Monday and water level anomalies already at 1 to 1.5 ft above normal, expect some nuisance to minor coastal flooding during tonight's high tide, and most likely again with the Monday evening high tide. Will issue a coastal flood advisory during high tide tonight the bay side MD eastern shore with a statement in Hampton Roads and the Northern Neck highlighting nuisance flooding with many sites reaching action stage.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654-656- 658.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Ship Shoal Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:40 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:51 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:01 AM EDT 3.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:05 PM EDT 0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:34 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:37 PM EDT 4.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:40 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:51 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:01 AM EDT 3.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:05 PM EDT 0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:34 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:37 PM EDT 4.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Ship Shoal Inlet, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 1.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.7 |
| 3 am |
| 2.4 |
| 4 am |
| 3 |
| 5 am |
| 3.5 |
| 6 am |
| 3.6 |
| 7 am |
| 3.4 |
| 8 am |
| 2.9 |
| 9 am |
| 2.1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.4 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 3 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 3 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.3 |
Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:46 AM EDT -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:41 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 04:05 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:52 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT 0.43 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:38 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:38 PM EDT -1.09 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:03 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:35 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:48 PM EDT 0.83 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:09 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:46 AM EDT -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:41 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 04:05 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:52 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT 0.43 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:38 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:38 PM EDT -1.09 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:03 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:35 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:48 PM EDT 0.83 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:09 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:09 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.8 |
| 1 am |
| -0.8 |
| 2 am |
| -0.7 |
| 3 am |
| -0.4 |
| 4 am |
| -0 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.2 |
| 9 am |
| -0.1 |
| 10 am |
| -0.5 |
| 11 am |
| -0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| -1 |
| 1 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| -0 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.4 |
Wakefield, VA,
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