Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Williamsburg, VA
May 20, 2024 12:51 AM EDT (04:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:51 AM Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 4:38 PM Moonset 3:06 AM |
ANZ636 York River- 1248 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Rest of tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Tue - E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Thu night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1248 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system over south carolina gradually moves offshore though Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday and prevails through midweek.
a low pressure system over south carolina gradually moves offshore though Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday and prevails through midweek.
FXUS61 KAKQ 200018 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 818 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle and end of the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 715 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Clouds temporarily scatter out later this evening, then build back in overnight. Lows in the mid-50s tonight.
- Areas of fog possible in the Piedmont late tonight.
Cloudy conditions persist over portions of the area this evening. Some clearing is possible before clouds build back in later this evening. Sfc high pressure centered over Atlantic Canada is still ridging into the local area while low pressure spins well offshore. Guidance continues to show the potential for areas of fog, generally along and west of I-95 after midnight. Fog could become dense in spots with visibility dropping below 1/2 mile. Fog and low stratus should mix out quickly inland but likely hang on along the coast. Lows tonight will be in the mid-50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland.
- A noticeable warming trend this week, though it remains cooler at the coast relative to inland locations.
Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds in and the sfc high over Canada shifts south.
Onshore flow will continue through Tues, though, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start.
Highs on Mon will be in the upper 70s in the piedmont, low-mid 70s in the E, and upper 60s immediately near the coast. Tues will have highs in the low 80s inland and low 70s at the coast. Will likely still see some gradient in temps Wed as winds shift to the SE, then S. Mid 80s are expected for most locations, but upper 70s to near 80 close at the coast. Lows will be in the mid-upper 50s during this period. Regarding cloud cover, starting out mostly cloudy Mon morning, then scattering out in the afternoon. Mostly sunny/clear skies for Tues and Wed.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
-A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms
-Warm with additional chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the weekend
Hot weather continues into Thursday as the ridge aloft gets suppressed/pushed offshore ahead of the approaching system. Highs will be close to 90 with slightly cooler temps in the Eastern Shore.
A cold front will then cross the region, bringing chances for thunderstorms. Still far enough out that there is some uncertainty in the timing and coverage of precip associated with the front, but global models are in general agreement that the frontal passage occurs Thursday night. Still maintaining Chnc PoPs moving from the NW in the afternoon and moving E later in the evening. Thunderstorms are probable given plenty of sfc-based instability. Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time given 40-50 kt of upper- level flow overspreading the region. Likely cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Still showing temps around 80 across northern counties and low-mid 80s elsewhere. Warm temps stick around through the weekend with highs around 80 both Sat and Sun. There will be daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms Fri- Sun, though uncertainty is high due to disagreement between global models in sfc and upper air features.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 715 PM EDT Sunday...
Most areas have improved to VFR this evening as some drier air moves in aloft. MVFR stratus continues for the areas around ORF and ECG. Will maintain prevailing MVFR in these areas despite some guidance showing a short period where scattering out is possible. Winds are generally onshore (NE-E-SE) 5-10 kt but are expected to become light and variable away from the coast by mid evening. Guidance shows the potential for widespread fog in the Piedmont and extensive IFR CIGs near the coast tonight. RIC will be tricky on which will dominate but IFR looks likely either way. Fog and stratus will mix out inland on Monday morning but MVFR/IFR CIGs may linger near the coast.
Outlook: Lower CIGs potentially lingering along the coast through Monday evening with flight restrictions possible. VFR expected elsewhere Monday. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.
MARINE
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Lingering SCA conditions over much of the coastal waters and lower bay due to seas.
- Generally quiet marine conditions starting Monday night and continuing for much of the week.
A high pressure ridge continues from New England south-southwestward through the Virginia Piedmont. Meanwhile, low pressure is over South Carolina and Georgia. This has led to persistent NE flow across all of the waters, with the strongest being mainly south of Cape Charles where the pressure gradient is strongest. As the low moves offshore later tonight into Monday, the high will gradually build southward, then eventually move offshore. Expect NE winds to persist at 10 to 15 kt tonight, then perhaps increase slightly on Monday to as high as 15 kt over the coastal waters. The persistent NE flow has allowed seas to build to 4 to 6 feet across the southern waters and 3 to 5 feet across the northern waters. Waves in the bay generally 2 to 3 feet (although perhaps up to 4 feet in the entrance to the bay).
These seas will continue through Monday, especially given the possible increase of NE winds forecast on Monday. Will leave all small craft advisories in place for now, although it is noted that north of Cape Charles the winds/waves are very marginal.
Better chances for 5 ft waves well north of Cape Charles may be on Monday.
Winds will turn southerly by Tuesday evening as the high shifts offshore. After Monday, am not expecting any further SCA for the remainder of the forecast period.
A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4- 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3- 4ft nearshore waves. Lower risk of rip currents for Tuesday.
HYDROLOGY
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell now expected to go to minor flood later this afternoon.
The river will likely stay in flood through tomorrow before falling tomorrow night and Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday....
Astronomical tides will gradually increase over the next few days.
With the persistent NE flow through Monday and water level anomalies already at 1 to 1.5 ft above normal, expect some nuisance to minor coastal flooding during tonight's high tide, and most likely again with the Monday evening high tide. Will issue a coastal flood advisory during high tide tonight the bay side MD eastern shore with a statement in Hampton Roads and the Northern Neck highlighting nuisance flooding with many sites reaching action stage.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654-656- 658.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 818 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the middle and end of the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 715 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Clouds temporarily scatter out later this evening, then build back in overnight. Lows in the mid-50s tonight.
- Areas of fog possible in the Piedmont late tonight.
Cloudy conditions persist over portions of the area this evening. Some clearing is possible before clouds build back in later this evening. Sfc high pressure centered over Atlantic Canada is still ridging into the local area while low pressure spins well offshore. Guidance continues to show the potential for areas of fog, generally along and west of I-95 after midnight. Fog could become dense in spots with visibility dropping below 1/2 mile. Fog and low stratus should mix out quickly inland but likely hang on along the coast. Lows tonight will be in the mid-50s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures expected well inland.
- A noticeable warming trend this week, though it remains cooler at the coast relative to inland locations.
Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds in and the sfc high over Canada shifts south.
Onshore flow will continue through Tues, though, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start.
Highs on Mon will be in the upper 70s in the piedmont, low-mid 70s in the E, and upper 60s immediately near the coast. Tues will have highs in the low 80s inland and low 70s at the coast. Will likely still see some gradient in temps Wed as winds shift to the SE, then S. Mid 80s are expected for most locations, but upper 70s to near 80 close at the coast. Lows will be in the mid-upper 50s during this period. Regarding cloud cover, starting out mostly cloudy Mon morning, then scattering out in the afternoon. Mostly sunny/clear skies for Tues and Wed.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
-A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms
-Warm with additional chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through the weekend
Hot weather continues into Thursday as the ridge aloft gets suppressed/pushed offshore ahead of the approaching system. Highs will be close to 90 with slightly cooler temps in the Eastern Shore.
A cold front will then cross the region, bringing chances for thunderstorms. Still far enough out that there is some uncertainty in the timing and coverage of precip associated with the front, but global models are in general agreement that the frontal passage occurs Thursday night. Still maintaining Chnc PoPs moving from the NW in the afternoon and moving E later in the evening. Thunderstorms are probable given plenty of sfc-based instability. Certainly cannot rule out any severe weather at this time given 40-50 kt of upper- level flow overspreading the region. Likely cooler on Friday if the front has passed. Still showing temps around 80 across northern counties and low-mid 80s elsewhere. Warm temps stick around through the weekend with highs around 80 both Sat and Sun. There will be daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms Fri- Sun, though uncertainty is high due to disagreement between global models in sfc and upper air features.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 715 PM EDT Sunday...
Most areas have improved to VFR this evening as some drier air moves in aloft. MVFR stratus continues for the areas around ORF and ECG. Will maintain prevailing MVFR in these areas despite some guidance showing a short period where scattering out is possible. Winds are generally onshore (NE-E-SE) 5-10 kt but are expected to become light and variable away from the coast by mid evening. Guidance shows the potential for widespread fog in the Piedmont and extensive IFR CIGs near the coast tonight. RIC will be tricky on which will dominate but IFR looks likely either way. Fog and stratus will mix out inland on Monday morning but MVFR/IFR CIGs may linger near the coast.
Outlook: Lower CIGs potentially lingering along the coast through Monday evening with flight restrictions possible. VFR expected elsewhere Monday. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.
MARINE
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Lingering SCA conditions over much of the coastal waters and lower bay due to seas.
- Generally quiet marine conditions starting Monday night and continuing for much of the week.
A high pressure ridge continues from New England south-southwestward through the Virginia Piedmont. Meanwhile, low pressure is over South Carolina and Georgia. This has led to persistent NE flow across all of the waters, with the strongest being mainly south of Cape Charles where the pressure gradient is strongest. As the low moves offshore later tonight into Monday, the high will gradually build southward, then eventually move offshore. Expect NE winds to persist at 10 to 15 kt tonight, then perhaps increase slightly on Monday to as high as 15 kt over the coastal waters. The persistent NE flow has allowed seas to build to 4 to 6 feet across the southern waters and 3 to 5 feet across the northern waters. Waves in the bay generally 2 to 3 feet (although perhaps up to 4 feet in the entrance to the bay).
These seas will continue through Monday, especially given the possible increase of NE winds forecast on Monday. Will leave all small craft advisories in place for now, although it is noted that north of Cape Charles the winds/waves are very marginal.
Better chances for 5 ft waves well north of Cape Charles may be on Monday.
Winds will turn southerly by Tuesday evening as the high shifts offshore. After Monday, am not expecting any further SCA for the remainder of the forecast period.
A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4- 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3- 4ft nearshore waves. Lower risk of rip currents for Tuesday.
HYDROLOGY
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell now expected to go to minor flood later this afternoon.
The river will likely stay in flood through tomorrow before falling tomorrow night and Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday....
Astronomical tides will gradually increase over the next few days.
With the persistent NE flow through Monday and water level anomalies already at 1 to 1.5 ft above normal, expect some nuisance to minor coastal flooding during tonight's high tide, and most likely again with the Monday evening high tide. Will issue a coastal flood advisory during high tide tonight the bay side MD eastern shore with a statement in Hampton Roads and the Northern Neck highlighting nuisance flooding with many sites reaching action stage.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654-656- 658.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPHF NEWPORT NEWS/WILLIAMSBURG INTL,VA | 14 sm | 57 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 61°F | 57°F | 88% | 30.03 | |
| KFYJ MIDDLE PENINSULA RGNL,VA | 16 sm | 16 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 61°F | 59°F | 94% | 30.03 |
Tide / Current for Queen Creek (2 miles above entrance), York River, Virginia
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Queen Creek (2 miles above entrance)
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:03 AM EDT 0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:44 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:00 AM EDT 2.12 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:01 PM EDT 0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:38 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT 2.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:03 AM EDT 0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:44 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:00 AM EDT 2.12 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:01 PM EDT 0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:38 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT 2.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Queen Creek (2 miles above entrance), York River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.5 |
| 4 am |
| 0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 1.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1.7 |
| 7 am |
| 2 |
| 8 am |
| 2.1 |
| 9 am |
| 2 |
| 10 am |
| 1.7 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.8 |
Allmondsville
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:06 AM EDT 0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:44 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 07:59 AM EDT 2.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:04 PM EDT 0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:38 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:23 PM EDT 3.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:06 AM EDT 0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:44 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 07:59 AM EDT 2.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:04 PM EDT 0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:38 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:23 PM EDT 3.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Allmondsville, York River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 2 |
| 7 am |
| 2.4 |
| 8 am |
| 2.5 |
| 9 am |
| 2.4 |
| 10 am |
| 2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 3 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.1 |
Wakefield, VA,
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