Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Enon, VA
May 20, 2024 3:13 AM EDT (07:13 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:54 AM Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 4:41 PM Moonset 3:08 AM |
ANZ636 York River- 1248 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Rest of tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Tue - E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Thu night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1248 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system over south carolina gradually moves offshore though Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday and prevails through midweek.
a low pressure system over south carolina gradually moves offshore though Monday. High pressure returns by Tuesday and prevails through midweek.
FXUS61 KAKQ 200659 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 259 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Dense fog is expected over the Piedmont through sunrise this morning.
- Less clouds overall today with warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions continuing at the coast.
High pressure has settled over the area this morning. Weak flow inland and moist low-levels is allowing fog to develop and expand.
Nighttime microphysics channels and obs showing the densest fog as of 06z/2 AM in the I-95 corridor. This should expand westward and grow even more widespread closer to sunrise. Have issued a broad SPS for now, but may end up needing a dense fog advisory at some point.
Most guidance scours the fog out by 8-9 AM and this seems reasonable.
For the rest of morning and aftn, the high will remain near the area with ridging slowly expanding to our N/NW aloft. However, weak/elongated low pressure offshore will keep a residual pressure gradient and onshore wind near the coast. Similar to the previous few days, this favors warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions at the coast. Still, expect there to be less clouds overall and we could even see some full sunshine W of the Chesapeake Bay in the later afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80F W of I-95, mid 70s further E but away from the water, and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Dry wx is expected areawide. A cloud deck again spreads westward overnight, with perhaps some additional fog developing. Lows tonight in the low-mid 50s.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...
Key Message:
- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend.
Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast.
Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly sunny/clear.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe.
- Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend.
The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to keep an eye on. The area isn't outlooked from SPC at this point.
Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn't look to be that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist, southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and Sunday.
For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won' be as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper 70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will be in the 60s through the extended period.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 135 AM EDT Monday...
A deck of lower clouds is noted across ern VA this morning, impacting RIC, PHF, and ORF. Additionally, patchy fog has developed, mainly from I-95 and points W. The VSBY at RIC has recently below to 1/2 SM and expect additional fluctuations here. Otherwise, expecting the fog to become more widespread as we approach sunrise, but should only be an operational problem at RIC. Another lower deck of clouds is also expected to move off the ocean in a few hrs. Thinking is this should be mainly lower CIGs (IFR- LIFR possible) and not reduced VSBY.
However, cannot rule out VSBY issues at SBY/ORF/PHF/ECG, especially in the 10-13z timeframe. Improvement is expected later this morning and aftn, with clearing skies. Lower clouds and CIGs (likely MVFR) remain along the immediate coast. Winds are light and variable away from the coast this morning and become 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt at the coast this aftn.
Outlook: Lower CIGs may again expand in coverage tonight, with flight restrictions possible. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.
MARINE
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Lingering SCA conditions over much of the coastal waters and lower bay due to seas.
- Generally quiet marine conditions starting Monday night and continuing for much of the week.
A high pressure ridge continues from New England south-southwestward through the Virginia Piedmont. Meanwhile, low pressure is over South Carolina and Georgia. This has led to persistent NE flow across all of the waters, with the strongest being mainly south of Cape Charles where the pressure gradient is strongest. As the low moves offshore later tonight into Monday, the high will gradually build southward, then eventually move offshore. Expect NE winds to persist at 10 to 15 kt tonight, then perhaps increase slightly on Monday to as high as 15 kt over the coastal waters. The persistent NE flow has allowed seas to build to 4 to 6 feet across the southern waters and 3 to 5 feet across the northern waters. Waves in the bay generally 2 to 3 feet (although perhaps up to 4 feet in the entrance to the bay).
These seas will continue through Monday, especially given the possible increase of NE winds forecast on Monday. Will leave all small craft advisories in place for now, although it is noted that north of Cape Charles the winds/waves are very marginal.
Better chances for 5 ft waves well north of Cape Charles may be on Monday.
Winds will turn southerly by Tuesday evening as the high shifts offshore. After Monday, am not expecting any further SCA for the remainder of the forecast period.
A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4- 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3- 4ft nearshore waves. Lower risk of rip currents for Tuesday.
HYDROLOGY
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell now expected to go to minor flood later this afternoon.
The river will likely stay in flood through tomorrow before falling tomorrow night and Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday....
Astronomical tides will gradually increase over the next few days.
With the persistent NE flow through Monday and water level anomalies already at 1 to 1.5 ft above normal, expect some nuisance to minor coastal flooding during tonight's high tide, and most likely again with the Monday evening high tide. Will issue a coastal flood advisory during high tide tonight the bay side MD eastern shore with a statement in Hampton Roads and the Northern Neck highlighting nuisance flooding with many sites reaching action stage.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 259 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Dense fog is expected over the Piedmont through sunrise this morning.
- Less clouds overall today with warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions continuing at the coast.
High pressure has settled over the area this morning. Weak flow inland and moist low-levels is allowing fog to develop and expand.
Nighttime microphysics channels and obs showing the densest fog as of 06z/2 AM in the I-95 corridor. This should expand westward and grow even more widespread closer to sunrise. Have issued a broad SPS for now, but may end up needing a dense fog advisory at some point.
Most guidance scours the fog out by 8-9 AM and this seems reasonable.
For the rest of morning and aftn, the high will remain near the area with ridging slowly expanding to our N/NW aloft. However, weak/elongated low pressure offshore will keep a residual pressure gradient and onshore wind near the coast. Similar to the previous few days, this favors warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions at the coast. Still, expect there to be less clouds overall and we could even see some full sunshine W of the Chesapeake Bay in the later afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80F W of I-95, mid 70s further E but away from the water, and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Dry wx is expected areawide. A cloud deck again spreads westward overnight, with perhaps some additional fog developing. Lows tonight in the low-mid 50s.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...
Key Message:
- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend.
Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast.
Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly sunny/clear.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe.
- Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend.
The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to keep an eye on. The area isn't outlooked from SPC at this point.
Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn't look to be that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist, southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and Sunday.
For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won' be as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper 70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will be in the 60s through the extended period.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 135 AM EDT Monday...
A deck of lower clouds is noted across ern VA this morning, impacting RIC, PHF, and ORF. Additionally, patchy fog has developed, mainly from I-95 and points W. The VSBY at RIC has recently below to 1/2 SM and expect additional fluctuations here. Otherwise, expecting the fog to become more widespread as we approach sunrise, but should only be an operational problem at RIC. Another lower deck of clouds is also expected to move off the ocean in a few hrs. Thinking is this should be mainly lower CIGs (IFR- LIFR possible) and not reduced VSBY.
However, cannot rule out VSBY issues at SBY/ORF/PHF/ECG, especially in the 10-13z timeframe. Improvement is expected later this morning and aftn, with clearing skies. Lower clouds and CIGs (likely MVFR) remain along the immediate coast. Winds are light and variable away from the coast this morning and become 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt at the coast this aftn.
Outlook: Lower CIGs may again expand in coverage tonight, with flight restrictions possible. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.
MARINE
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Lingering SCA conditions over much of the coastal waters and lower bay due to seas.
- Generally quiet marine conditions starting Monday night and continuing for much of the week.
A high pressure ridge continues from New England south-southwestward through the Virginia Piedmont. Meanwhile, low pressure is over South Carolina and Georgia. This has led to persistent NE flow across all of the waters, with the strongest being mainly south of Cape Charles where the pressure gradient is strongest. As the low moves offshore later tonight into Monday, the high will gradually build southward, then eventually move offshore. Expect NE winds to persist at 10 to 15 kt tonight, then perhaps increase slightly on Monday to as high as 15 kt over the coastal waters. The persistent NE flow has allowed seas to build to 4 to 6 feet across the southern waters and 3 to 5 feet across the northern waters. Waves in the bay generally 2 to 3 feet (although perhaps up to 4 feet in the entrance to the bay).
These seas will continue through Monday, especially given the possible increase of NE winds forecast on Monday. Will leave all small craft advisories in place for now, although it is noted that north of Cape Charles the winds/waves are very marginal.
Better chances for 5 ft waves well north of Cape Charles may be on Monday.
Winds will turn southerly by Tuesday evening as the high shifts offshore. After Monday, am not expecting any further SCA for the remainder of the forecast period.
A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4- 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3- 4ft nearshore waves. Lower risk of rip currents for Tuesday.
HYDROLOGY
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...
Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell now expected to go to minor flood later this afternoon.
The river will likely stay in flood through tomorrow before falling tomorrow night and Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday....
Astronomical tides will gradually increase over the next few days.
With the persistent NE flow through Monday and water level anomalies already at 1 to 1.5 ft above normal, expect some nuisance to minor coastal flooding during tonight's high tide, and most likely again with the Monday evening high tide. Will issue a coastal flood advisory during high tide tonight the bay side MD eastern shore with a statement in Hampton Roads and the Northern Neck highlighting nuisance flooding with many sites reaching action stage.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 44041 - Jamestown, VA | 30 mi | 49 min | N 3.9G | 61°F | 70°F | |||
| YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA | 31 mi | 103 min | 0 | 60°F | 30.04 | 58°F | ||
| YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA | 45 mi | 55 min | NE 8G | 63°F | 68°F | 30.01 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KRIC RICHMOND INTL,VA | 8 sm | 19 min | S 05 | 1/4 sm | -- | 61°F | 59°F | 94% | 30.00 | |
| KFCI RICHMOND EXECUTIVECHESTERFIELD COUNTY,VA | 12 sm | 17 min | SE 05 | 1/4 sm | Overcast | Fog | 59°F | 30.01 | ||
| KPTB DINWIDDIE COUNTY,VA | 19 sm | 18 min | calm | 1/4 sm | Overcast | Fog | 61°F | 59°F | 94% | 30.02 |
| KOFP HANOVER COUNTY MUNI,VA | 23 sm | 19 min | SSE 03 | 1/4 sm | -- | Fog | 59°F | 59°F | 100% | 30.02 |
Tide / Current for Curles, 1 mile north of, James River, Virginia
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) HIDE Help
Curles
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:32 AM EDT 3.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:08 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:56 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 09:25 AM EDT 0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:59 PM EDT 2.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 09:09 PM EDT 0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:32 AM EDT 3.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:08 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:56 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 09:25 AM EDT 0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:59 PM EDT 2.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 09:09 PM EDT 0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Curles, 1 mile north of, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.4 |
| 1 am |
| 2.9 |
| 2 am |
| 3.2 |
| 3 am |
| 3.2 |
| 4 am |
| 2.9 |
| 5 am |
| 2.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1.7 |
| 7 am |
| 1.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
City Point (Hopewell)
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:02 AM EDT 3.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:08 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:56 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:39 AM EDT 0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:29 PM EDT 2.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT 0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:02 AM EDT 3.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:08 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:56 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:39 AM EDT 0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:29 PM EDT 2.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT 0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
City Point (Hopewell), James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.5 |
| 1 am |
| 2.9 |
| 2 am |
| 3 |
| 3 am |
| 2.9 |
| 4 am |
| 2.4 |
| 5 am |
| 1.8 |
| 6 am |
| 1.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.8 |
| 11 am |
| 1.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.5 |
Wakefield, VA,
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