Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kilmarnock, VA
May 20, 2024 8:04 AM EDT (12:04 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:51 AM Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 4:37 PM Moonset 3:04 AM |
ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 657 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Today - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight - SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop.
Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Thu - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri - N winds 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night - SE winds 5 kt, becoming sw. Waves 1 foot or less and light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 657 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a low pressure system slowly pulls away from the southeast coast today. High pressure returns by Tuesday and prevails through midweek bringing benign marine conditions.
a low pressure system slowly pulls away from the southeast coast today. High pressure returns by Tuesday and prevails through midweek bringing benign marine conditions.
FXUS61 KAKQ 201056 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 656 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 650 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Dense fog is expected over the Piedmont through mid morning.
- Less clouds overall today with warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions continuing at the coast.
High pressure has settled over the area this morning. Dense fog continues over portions of the Piedmont and a dense fog advisory is in effect for these areas through 9 AM. Fog should scour out shortly after.
For the rest of morning and aftn, the high will remain near the area with ridging slowly expanding to our N/NW aloft. However, weak/elongated low pressure offshore will keep a residual pressure gradient and onshore wind near the coast. Similar to the previous few days, this favors warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions at the coast. Still, expect there to be less clouds overall and we could even see some full sunshine W of the Chesapeake Bay in the later afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80F W of I-95, mid 70s further E but away from the water, and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Dry wx is expected areawide. A cloud deck again spreads westward overnight, with perhaps some additional fog developing. Lows tonight in the low-mid 50s.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...
Key Message:
- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend.
Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast.
Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly sunny/clear.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe.
- Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend.
The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to keep an eye on. The area isn't outlooked from SPC at this point.
Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn't look to be that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist, southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and Sunday.
For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won' be as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper 70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will be in the 60s through the extended period.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 655 AM EDT Monday...
A deck of lower clouds continues to affect the coastal terminals this morning w/ IFR to low-end MVFR CIGs . Further inland, rather widespread fog is noted. As of 11z, it is most widespread W of RIC and in the Piedmont. Expect RIC to fluctuate some this morning w/ occasional decreases in VSBY to IFR or LIFR. The fog should clear shortly near or just before 9 AM/13z.
IFR or MVFR CIGs continue at the coast through at least mid- morning. Improvement is expected later this morning and aftn, with clearing skies. Lower clouds and CIGs (likely MVFR) remain along the immediate coast through most of today. For tonight, additional low stratus or fog is expected w/ widespread flight restrictions to IFR- LIFR. Winds become 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt at the coast this aftn. Winds turn light tonight.
Outlook: Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.
MARINE
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
-All Small craft advisories have been or will be discontinued by 4 AM.
- Generally quiet marine conditions starting tonight and continuing for much of the week.
1024mb high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada early this morning and extends to the SW into the Mid-Atlantic region.
Meanwhile, low pressure linger off the Southeast coast in vicinity of the Gulf Stream. The wind is NE and generally 5-10kt over the rivers, 10-15kt over the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and ocean north of Cape Henry, and 15-20kt for the ocean south of Cape Henry in closer proximity to the stronger pressure gradient. Seas range from 3-4ft north to ~4ft S. Similar conditions will persist through mid- aftn as high pressure remain anchored to our NE and as low pressure lingers well off the Southeast coast. The remaining SCA off the Currituck Outer Banks will be discontinued at 4 AM as seas are primarily expected to remain below 5ft.
The wind is expected to remain onshore but diminish later this aftn into tonight as high pressure builds in from the north.
This area of high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by tonight/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by mid to late week. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday and settles into the region Friday into Saturday bringing a chc of primarily aftn/evening tstms. Conditions will mainly be sub- SCA with a potential for brief increases in wind and seas/waves from tstms.
A high risk of rip currents is forecast today for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 10-15kt and nearshore waves around 4ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind will be slightly lighter with 3-4ft nearshore waves.
By Tuesday, the rip forecast is moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually subside.
HYDROLOGY
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...
Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this morning. The river will likely stay in flood into Tuesday before falling below flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...
Tidal flooding is not expected during the next high tide cycle later this morning into early aftn given the lower astronomical high tide combined with a decent ebb tide. However, another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding will likely occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. A similar pattern will continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated over the next several days.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 656 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 650 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Dense fog is expected over the Piedmont through mid morning.
- Less clouds overall today with warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions continuing at the coast.
High pressure has settled over the area this morning. Dense fog continues over portions of the Piedmont and a dense fog advisory is in effect for these areas through 9 AM. Fog should scour out shortly after.
For the rest of morning and aftn, the high will remain near the area with ridging slowly expanding to our N/NW aloft. However, weak/elongated low pressure offshore will keep a residual pressure gradient and onshore wind near the coast. Similar to the previous few days, this favors warmer temps inland and cooler/cloudier conditions at the coast. Still, expect there to be less clouds overall and we could even see some full sunshine W of the Chesapeake Bay in the later afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80F W of I-95, mid 70s further E but away from the water, and upper 60s/low 70s along the coast. Dry wx is expected areawide. A cloud deck again spreads westward overnight, with perhaps some additional fog developing. Lows tonight in the low-mid 50s.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...
Key Message:
- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend.
Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast.
Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the 50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly sunny/clear.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe.
- Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend.
The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to keep an eye on. The area isn't outlooked from SPC at this point.
Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn't look to be that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist, southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and Sunday.
For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won' be as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper 70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows will be in the 60s through the extended period.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 655 AM EDT Monday...
A deck of lower clouds continues to affect the coastal terminals this morning w/ IFR to low-end MVFR CIGs . Further inland, rather widespread fog is noted. As of 11z, it is most widespread W of RIC and in the Piedmont. Expect RIC to fluctuate some this morning w/ occasional decreases in VSBY to IFR or LIFR. The fog should clear shortly near or just before 9 AM/13z.
IFR or MVFR CIGs continue at the coast through at least mid- morning. Improvement is expected later this morning and aftn, with clearing skies. Lower clouds and CIGs (likely MVFR) remain along the immediate coast through most of today. For tonight, additional low stratus or fog is expected w/ widespread flight restrictions to IFR- LIFR. Winds become 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt at the coast this aftn. Winds turn light tonight.
Outlook: Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.
MARINE
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
-All Small craft advisories have been or will be discontinued by 4 AM.
- Generally quiet marine conditions starting tonight and continuing for much of the week.
1024mb high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada early this morning and extends to the SW into the Mid-Atlantic region.
Meanwhile, low pressure linger off the Southeast coast in vicinity of the Gulf Stream. The wind is NE and generally 5-10kt over the rivers, 10-15kt over the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and ocean north of Cape Henry, and 15-20kt for the ocean south of Cape Henry in closer proximity to the stronger pressure gradient. Seas range from 3-4ft north to ~4ft S. Similar conditions will persist through mid- aftn as high pressure remain anchored to our NE and as low pressure lingers well off the Southeast coast. The remaining SCA off the Currituck Outer Banks will be discontinued at 4 AM as seas are primarily expected to remain below 5ft.
The wind is expected to remain onshore but diminish later this aftn into tonight as high pressure builds in from the north.
This area of high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft by tonight/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by mid to late week. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday and settles into the region Friday into Saturday bringing a chc of primarily aftn/evening tstms. Conditions will mainly be sub- SCA with a potential for brief increases in wind and seas/waves from tstms.
A high risk of rip currents is forecast today for the southern beaches given a NE wind of 10-15kt and nearshore waves around 4ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches as the NE wind will be slightly lighter with 3-4ft nearshore waves.
By Tuesday, the rip forecast is moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually subside.
HYDROLOGY
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...
Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this morning. The river will likely stay in flood into Tuesday before falling below flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...
Tidal flooding is not expected during the next high tide cycle later this morning into early aftn given the lower astronomical high tide combined with a decent ebb tide. However, another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding will likely occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. A similar pattern will continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated over the next several days.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 11 mi | 35 min | NNE 7.8G | 59°F | 67°F | 1 ft | ||
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 20 mi | 47 min | E 7G | |||||
| RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA | 20 mi | 47 min | ENE 8.9G | 30.06 | ||||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 21 mi | 41 min | E 9.7G | 57°F | 65°F | 1 ft | ||
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 31 mi | 47 min | ESE 6G | |||||
| YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA | 31 mi | 35 min | 0 | 61°F | 30.04 | 57°F | ||
| WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA | 34 mi | 47 min | NE 13G | 57°F | 64°F | 30.01 | ||
| YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA | 36 mi | 47 min | NE 6G | 60°F | 67°F | 30.02 | ||
| 44072 | 37 mi | 35 min | NE 9.7G | 58°F | 1 ft | |||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 37 mi | 47 min | ENE 8.9G | 58°F | 65°F | 30.04 | ||
| KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA | 42 mi | 47 min | NE 5.1G | 57°F | 65°F | 30.04 | ||
| SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD | 42 mi | 47 min | ENE 6G | 60°F | 66°F | 30.04 | ||
| 44041 - Jamestown, VA | 44 mi | 35 min | NE 3.9G | 59°F | 70°F | |||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 47 mi | 47 min | ESE 1.9G | 58°F | 30.05 | |||
| 44087 | 49 mi | 39 min | 66°F | 2 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KTGI TANGIER ISLAND,VA | 17 sm | 29 min | NNE 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | 59°F | 55°F | 88% | 30.04 |
Dividing Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:03 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:26 AM EDT 0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:22 AM EDT 0.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:18 PM EDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:42 PM EDT 1.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:03 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:26 AM EDT 0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:22 AM EDT 0.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:18 PM EDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:42 PM EDT 1.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Dividing Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.2 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.5 |
| 8 am |
| 0.7 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.2 |
Fleet Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:03 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:59 AM EDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM EDT 0.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:51 PM EDT 0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:03 PM EDT 1.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:03 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:59 AM EDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM EDT 0.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:51 PM EDT 0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:37 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:03 PM EDT 1.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Fleet Point, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.8 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 0.4 |
| 4 am |
| 0.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.2 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.2 |
Wakefield, VA,
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