Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 3:52 PM   Moonset 2:51 AM

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PZZ540 Coastal Waters From Point Arena To Point Reyes California Out To 10 Nm- 832 Am Pdt Sun May 19 2024
.gale warning in effect through late tonight - .
Today - NW wind 15 to 20 kt, rising to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Wave detail: nw 8 ft at 10 seconds and sw 3 ft at 18 seconds. Tonight - NW wind 25 to 30 kt, easing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Wave detail: nw 10 ft at 11 seconds and sw 3 ft at 17 seconds. Mon - NW wind 15 to 20 kt, rising to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Wave detail: nw 5 ft at 7 seconds, nw 7 ft at 11 seconds and sw 3 ft at 17 seconds. Mon night - NW wind 20 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft, subsiding to 8 to 10 ft after midnight. Wave detail: nw 6 ft at 8 seconds, nw 10 ft at 11 seconds and sw 2 ft at 17 seconds. Tue - NW wind 15 to 20 kt, rising to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Wave detail: nw 5 ft at 7 seconds, nw 6 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Tue night - NW wind 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 9 to 11 ft, subsiding to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. Wave detail: nw 8 ft at 9 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Wed - NW wind 20 to 25 kt, rising to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 8 to 10 ft in the afternoon. Wed night - NW wind 25 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 12 ft, subsiding to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. Thu - NW wind 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Thu night - NW wind 20 to 25 kt, easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft after midnight.

PZZ500 832 Am Pdt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
strong northerly winds continue, with gale force gusts expected over much of the waters today and Monday. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves from these building winds throughout the next work week. It is not until next weekend that winds are expected to ease.

FXUS66 KMTR 191835 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1135 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1255 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024

Typical summer-like pattern to persist through the weekend with gradual warming trend for the first half of the upcoming week.
Nighttime low clouds will spread inland and then retreat back to the coast by mid-to-late morning each day.

UPDATE
Issued at 848 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

Sky conditions are already improving over the North Bay at this hour and will soon clear over the Central Coast by mid-to-late morning.
The HRRR has clouds dissipating even out over the ocean by late afternoon. As such, expecting slightly warmer temperatures today with afternoon highs in the mid 70's to lower 80's across the interior with upper 50's to near 70 degrees at the coast. No updates are anticipated at this time.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

Tonight's stratus coverage is not as extensive as previous nights with patchier stratus inland and more widespread stratus along the coastline. Stratus is expected to clear out by mid-morning throughout the Bay Area. Confidence in the timing of stratus dissipation along the Central Coast is a little lower with, as discussed in the previous AFD, models are not handling the current setup well. The most likely scenario is stratus will briefly break up during the afternoon along the coast before overcast conditions return by the late evening. Slight upper level troughing and gusty conditions over the coastal waters will keep the marine layer more mixed and keep stratus confined closer to the coast.

Inland temperatures today will be fairly seasonal while temperatures along the coast will be seasonal to slightly below average due to stratus coverage limiting surface warming. Inland highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s while coastal highs stay in the upper 50s to low 60s. Some potential (generally 5-10% chance) for coastal drizzle tonight from Santa Cruz to the Big Sur coastline but minimal to no accumulation is expected.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

A slight warming trend is expected through mid-week with temperatures building into the upper 70s to mid 80s by Tuesday/Wednesday. Inland stratus coverage is expected to be less impressive this week as a deeper marine layer and gusty offshore winds keep the atmosphere well mixed and low clouds confined to the coast. Ensemble guidance agrees that Tuesday is looking to be the warmest day this week with the highest probability of widespread temperatures greater than 80 degrees. Minor heat risk begins to spread through most of the Bay Area and portions of the Salinas Valley Monday through Thursday. People who are incredibly sensitive to heat should take precautions while outdoors and remember to drink plenty of water.

By late week, upper level troughing strengthens and moves farther south into California with an associated surface low passing through the state. This will bring about a pattern change with widespread below average temperatures expected. By the weekend, inland highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with coastal highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. CPC temperature outlooks have temperatures leaning below average through the end of May and into the beginning of June.
Ensemble guidance suggests this system will be fairly dry for our region with any precipitation associated with it directed northwards of us into far northern California/southern Oregon.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR across the region this afternoon as stratus continues to recede away to the coastline. Winds generally westerly and around 12-15 knots sustained this afternoon, with coastal terminals seeing occasional gusts around the 20 kt mark. Tonight, most terminals are forecast to remain clear and VFR with the exception of Monterey Bay who is likely to see MVFR CIGs from stratus. However, confidence on maintaining VFR into the night is only moderate as short term models the last few days have not seemed to handle changing conditions and stratus cover well. Troughing and breezier winds should deepen the marine layer and keep it well mixed, therefore limiting the extent of stratus coverage. Highest confidence is in far inland terminals remaining VFR through the TAF period, with moderate confidence on coastal terminals maintaining VFR and just seeing FEW-SCT low clouds.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Moderate and gusty W/NW winds this afternoon persist through the evening, slowly weakening into the night to become light in the first hours of Monday. As winds weaken, FEW low clouds may develop over the terminal, but not expecting a CIG. Breezy onshore winds return in the afternoon of Monday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Stratus continues to hang over the terminal, though satellite continues to show the cloud deck receding to the coast line. Come the early afternoon, VFR conditions are likely to return, with winds increasing to become breezy. Occasional gusts nearing the 20 kt mark are expected. Stratus makes a return in the evening beyond sunset, with MVFR CIGs forming. MVFR then lasts through the late morning of Monday.

MARINE
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 848 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

Strong northerly winds continue, with gale force gusts expected over much of the waters today and Monday. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves from these building winds throughout the next work week. It is not until next weekend that winds are expected to ease.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

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Blakes Landing
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Sun -- 03:51 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:11 AM PDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:57 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:44 AM PDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:37 PM PDT     1.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:51 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:19 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:29 PM PDT     4.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Blakes Landing, Tomales Bay, California, Tide feet

Point Reyes
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:06 AM PDT     -0.98 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:52 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:53 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:58 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:52 AM PDT     0.81 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:43 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:19 PM PDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:46 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:51 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:41 PM PDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:19 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:31 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Reyes, California Current, knots

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