Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Siasconset, MA
May 20, 2024 3:13 AM EDT (07:13 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:19 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 5:12 PM Moonset 3:37 AM |
ANZ915 Between 1000fm And 38.5 N West Of 69 W- 438 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Tonight - N to ne winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Chance of showers and areas of fog with vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Mon night - NE winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue - N to ne winds less than 10 kt, becoming variable. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Tue night - S winds less than 10 kt, becoming sw. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed - S to sw winds less than 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night - S to sw winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu - SW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night - SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri - W to sw winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night - W winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ900 Georges Bank Between 68w And The Hague Line- 428 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Tonight - NE winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Chance of rain and areas of fog early, then slight chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less early.
Mon - NE winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Mon night - E to ne winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue - N winds less than 10 kt, becoming variable. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night - SW winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed - SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night - SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri - SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
FXUS61 KBOX 200543 AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 143 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
The coastal storm that has brought low clouds, drizzle and cool northeast winds to RI and eastern MA, finally begins to exit out to sea tonight. This gives way to a significant pattern shift to drier and warmer weather beginning Monday. Very warm temperatures are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures reaching into the 80s, with an outside chance a few locations see 90 degrees on Wednesday. Humidity levels will be on the low side accompanying that midweek warmth, hence, a somewhat dry heat. A cold front arrives on Thursday with the potential for showers and thunderstorms. A more seasonable air mass then filters in for late in the week into at least the early part of Memorial Day Weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
10 PM Update:
Drizzle and stratus continue across eastern MA and RI with a few heavier showers scattered within the shield of drizzle. In stark comparison to the eastern half of the CWA, the CT River Valley has broken out into clear conditions, with temperatures still mild, in the 60s! As temperatures cool overnight, expecting stratus/fog to back from the east into areas like Hartford and Springfield, before conditions improve later tomorrow.
3 PM Update:
Low level moist onshore jet continues to deliver overcast conditions and some spotty drizzle across RI and eastern MA, including Cape Cod and the Islands. Meanwhile, breaks in the overcast are occurring across CT into MA, eastward into the Worcester Hills. Temps are responding to the strong May sunshine, with temps warming through the 60s there and a few low 70s, including 71 at BDL currently. Meanwhile, short wave energy traversing southward from the ME coast will continue to delay height rises from advancing eastward today. This also results in a nearly stationary low level ENE jet into eastern MA and RI, with the low level jet slowly shifting southward overnight, along with ridge of high pressure advecting south into SNE.
Thus, drier trends overnight. However, low level moisture will likely remained trapped beneath the subsidence inversion from the surface ridge building southward. Hence, low clouds will remain stubborn across RI and eastern MA tonight and likely drifting back into CT and western/central MA, along with patchy fog possible. This low level moisture will yield seasonably cool temps overnight, with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Although, it will feel cooler with northeast winds 15-25 mph, highest over southeast MA and RI, slowly slackening tonight as the surface ridge builds southward.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
3 PM update...
* Big improvement, more sunshine & warmer temperatures * Low 80s possible CT River Valley, including Hartford/Springfield
Monday...
Once short wave energy exits the eastern MA coast tonight, this allows height rises to advect Monday across the region from west to east and more importantly, low level jet easing and moving offshore.
This ridging and associated subsidence will allow strong May sunshine to erode low level moisture/clouds and possible patchy fog Monday morning and give way to at least partial afternoon sunshine to the entire region. 12z models have trended warmer and this seems reasonable given the height rises and morning clouds giving way to at least partial late May sunshine. 850 mb temps increase to about +12C and 925 mb temps warm to +18C to +20C western MA, to +13C across southeast MA. This will support highs in the low 80s across western MA/CT, with much of the region seeing highs in the 70s and as far southeast into the I-95 corridor of MA/RI. With surface ridge over the area, afternoon seabreezes will develop and cap highs in the 60s for the coastline, possibly only into the upper 50s for the outer Cape and Nantucket.
Monday night...
Deep layer ridge over SNE will provide dry weather. Light winds and dew pts slightly above normal (low 50s), may yield patchy fog. This will also result in mild overnight temps, with lows 50-55.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
No big changes here, a warming trend continues Tuesday and Wednesday with the chance for this summer-like warmth to continue on Thursday.
A cold front moves across the region on Thursday, perhaps bringing a few stronger storms. Mixed signal heading into next weekend as the deterministic guidance remains split over a dry or semi-wet weekend.
An anomolously warm air mass, driven by a modest mid-level ridge, is expected to linger over much of New England into Thursday, leading to well above normal surface temperatures. Global guidance suggests 850mb temperatures are +6C to +11C above what is normal over the course of those three days. The ridge does break down late Thursday into Friday a mid-level trough swings through.
Tuesday afternoon there are high probabilities, greater than 80% for temperatures AOA 85 degrees, locations like Hartford, Springfield, Worcester, and Lowell. Many spots across the interior top out between 85F-89F, while closer to the coast a southwest wind keeps locations south of Providence/Taunton/Plymouth in the 70s, though the immediate coastline in the upper 60s. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day with a large portion of northern Connecticut, northern Rhode Island, and much of Massachusetts (outside of southeast MA)
with greater than 80% probabilities of afternoon temperatures AOA 85 degrees. It is not out of the question we have a few spots pushing 90 degrees, places in the Merrimack and CT River Valley have a greater than 70% chance. While less likely, there are even low probabilities of temperatures at or above 95F, around 40% in the Merrimack Valley. Thursday, the maximum temperatures will really depend on what time a cold front moves through and how much cold cover develops. Given the uncertainties, continues with NBM guidance, highs likely reach back into the middle 80s away from the coast. Temperatures turning more seasonable with highs in the 70 for Friday into next weekend.
Much of this week is dry, the mid-level ridge does support a drier pattern. Not out of the question there could be a rouge afternoon shower/thunderstorm mainly areas northwest Massachusetts, but the better chance for showers is Thursday. Guidance is in pretty fair agreement a cold front moves across the region with the potential for thunderstorms - whether or not they are severe is still to be seen, but there are signs that the atmosphere could be favorable with modest CAPE, 1500 J/kg and effective shear of 40 kts. Based off the previous deterministic run, the CSU machine learning have 5% to 15% of severe weather, something to monitor as we head into this week. Drying out on Friday, but there remains uncertainty with this upcoming weekend whether or not we see rain or not.
AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update:
Through Today... Low to Moderate Confidence in Vsby
Forecast continues to be complex with conditions ranging anywhere from LIFR to VFR across the region. Away from the Cape and Islands, terminals generally MVFR to VFR but patchy fog through 12/13Z this morning may degrade conditions to LIFR before widespread MVFR (on the coast) to VFR (elsewhere)
develops late this afternoon, though, VFR may be delayed to as late as 18/20Z in places like Boston and Providence. On the Cape, IFR likely to persist for a good portion of the day, with a chance for MVFR very late this afternoon. Winds calm to slightly NE this morning will gradually swing around to the south, first across the CT River Valley around 16/18Z, and last for the Cape and Islands.
Monday night...Moderate confidence.
IFR to MVFR continues for the Cape and Islands, generally VFR across the interior except IFR where patchy fog.
Tuesday... Low cigs/vsby due to fog burn off quickly to VFR for all terminals. Winds from the SW will be strong enough to stave off a seabreeze.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF trends
MVFR to IFR this morning, MVFR occurring through early afternoon before clouds scatter out to VFR. VSBY/cig reductions possible again tonight. Winds NE this morning shifting to the south late this evening.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence
VFR outside of some patchy fog both this morning and tomorrow morning leading to brief periods of IFR. Winds calm becoming S/SE this afternoon and SE tomorrow.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night: VFR.
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
3 PM update...
Tonight...high confidence.
Offshore low continues to generate marginal SCA with NE winds up to 25 kt (in gusts, not sustained) and seas up to 6 ft across the eastern MA waters, slowly subside tonight. Vsby may be reduced to 1- 3 miles at times in drizzle and fog.
Monday... High confidence
Lows clouds/drizzle and patchy early morning fog with vsbys 1-3 miles, slowly burns off with improving conditions mid to late afternoon. High pressure over SNE results in light NE winds become east and then southeast late in the day.
Monday night...high confidence.
Ridge of high pressure crest over the waters, yielding light SE winds becoming SW. Patchy fog may limit vsby at times.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ254.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 143 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
The coastal storm that has brought low clouds, drizzle and cool northeast winds to RI and eastern MA, finally begins to exit out to sea tonight. This gives way to a significant pattern shift to drier and warmer weather beginning Monday. Very warm temperatures are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures reaching into the 80s, with an outside chance a few locations see 90 degrees on Wednesday. Humidity levels will be on the low side accompanying that midweek warmth, hence, a somewhat dry heat. A cold front arrives on Thursday with the potential for showers and thunderstorms. A more seasonable air mass then filters in for late in the week into at least the early part of Memorial Day Weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
10 PM Update:
Drizzle and stratus continue across eastern MA and RI with a few heavier showers scattered within the shield of drizzle. In stark comparison to the eastern half of the CWA, the CT River Valley has broken out into clear conditions, with temperatures still mild, in the 60s! As temperatures cool overnight, expecting stratus/fog to back from the east into areas like Hartford and Springfield, before conditions improve later tomorrow.
3 PM Update:
Low level moist onshore jet continues to deliver overcast conditions and some spotty drizzle across RI and eastern MA, including Cape Cod and the Islands. Meanwhile, breaks in the overcast are occurring across CT into MA, eastward into the Worcester Hills. Temps are responding to the strong May sunshine, with temps warming through the 60s there and a few low 70s, including 71 at BDL currently. Meanwhile, short wave energy traversing southward from the ME coast will continue to delay height rises from advancing eastward today. This also results in a nearly stationary low level ENE jet into eastern MA and RI, with the low level jet slowly shifting southward overnight, along with ridge of high pressure advecting south into SNE.
Thus, drier trends overnight. However, low level moisture will likely remained trapped beneath the subsidence inversion from the surface ridge building southward. Hence, low clouds will remain stubborn across RI and eastern MA tonight and likely drifting back into CT and western/central MA, along with patchy fog possible. This low level moisture will yield seasonably cool temps overnight, with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Although, it will feel cooler with northeast winds 15-25 mph, highest over southeast MA and RI, slowly slackening tonight as the surface ridge builds southward.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
3 PM update...
* Big improvement, more sunshine & warmer temperatures * Low 80s possible CT River Valley, including Hartford/Springfield
Monday...
Once short wave energy exits the eastern MA coast tonight, this allows height rises to advect Monday across the region from west to east and more importantly, low level jet easing and moving offshore.
This ridging and associated subsidence will allow strong May sunshine to erode low level moisture/clouds and possible patchy fog Monday morning and give way to at least partial afternoon sunshine to the entire region. 12z models have trended warmer and this seems reasonable given the height rises and morning clouds giving way to at least partial late May sunshine. 850 mb temps increase to about +12C and 925 mb temps warm to +18C to +20C western MA, to +13C across southeast MA. This will support highs in the low 80s across western MA/CT, with much of the region seeing highs in the 70s and as far southeast into the I-95 corridor of MA/RI. With surface ridge over the area, afternoon seabreezes will develop and cap highs in the 60s for the coastline, possibly only into the upper 50s for the outer Cape and Nantucket.
Monday night...
Deep layer ridge over SNE will provide dry weather. Light winds and dew pts slightly above normal (low 50s), may yield patchy fog. This will also result in mild overnight temps, with lows 50-55.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
No big changes here, a warming trend continues Tuesday and Wednesday with the chance for this summer-like warmth to continue on Thursday.
A cold front moves across the region on Thursday, perhaps bringing a few stronger storms. Mixed signal heading into next weekend as the deterministic guidance remains split over a dry or semi-wet weekend.
An anomolously warm air mass, driven by a modest mid-level ridge, is expected to linger over much of New England into Thursday, leading to well above normal surface temperatures. Global guidance suggests 850mb temperatures are +6C to +11C above what is normal over the course of those three days. The ridge does break down late Thursday into Friday a mid-level trough swings through.
Tuesday afternoon there are high probabilities, greater than 80% for temperatures AOA 85 degrees, locations like Hartford, Springfield, Worcester, and Lowell. Many spots across the interior top out between 85F-89F, while closer to the coast a southwest wind keeps locations south of Providence/Taunton/Plymouth in the 70s, though the immediate coastline in the upper 60s. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day with a large portion of northern Connecticut, northern Rhode Island, and much of Massachusetts (outside of southeast MA)
with greater than 80% probabilities of afternoon temperatures AOA 85 degrees. It is not out of the question we have a few spots pushing 90 degrees, places in the Merrimack and CT River Valley have a greater than 70% chance. While less likely, there are even low probabilities of temperatures at or above 95F, around 40% in the Merrimack Valley. Thursday, the maximum temperatures will really depend on what time a cold front moves through and how much cold cover develops. Given the uncertainties, continues with NBM guidance, highs likely reach back into the middle 80s away from the coast. Temperatures turning more seasonable with highs in the 70 for Friday into next weekend.
Much of this week is dry, the mid-level ridge does support a drier pattern. Not out of the question there could be a rouge afternoon shower/thunderstorm mainly areas northwest Massachusetts, but the better chance for showers is Thursday. Guidance is in pretty fair agreement a cold front moves across the region with the potential for thunderstorms - whether or not they are severe is still to be seen, but there are signs that the atmosphere could be favorable with modest CAPE, 1500 J/kg and effective shear of 40 kts. Based off the previous deterministic run, the CSU machine learning have 5% to 15% of severe weather, something to monitor as we head into this week. Drying out on Friday, but there remains uncertainty with this upcoming weekend whether or not we see rain or not.
AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update:
Through Today... Low to Moderate Confidence in Vsby
Forecast continues to be complex with conditions ranging anywhere from LIFR to VFR across the region. Away from the Cape and Islands, terminals generally MVFR to VFR but patchy fog through 12/13Z this morning may degrade conditions to LIFR before widespread MVFR (on the coast) to VFR (elsewhere)
develops late this afternoon, though, VFR may be delayed to as late as 18/20Z in places like Boston and Providence. On the Cape, IFR likely to persist for a good portion of the day, with a chance for MVFR very late this afternoon. Winds calm to slightly NE this morning will gradually swing around to the south, first across the CT River Valley around 16/18Z, and last for the Cape and Islands.
Monday night...Moderate confidence.
IFR to MVFR continues for the Cape and Islands, generally VFR across the interior except IFR where patchy fog.
Tuesday... Low cigs/vsby due to fog burn off quickly to VFR for all terminals. Winds from the SW will be strong enough to stave off a seabreeze.
KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF trends
MVFR to IFR this morning, MVFR occurring through early afternoon before clouds scatter out to VFR. VSBY/cig reductions possible again tonight. Winds NE this morning shifting to the south late this evening.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence
VFR outside of some patchy fog both this morning and tomorrow morning leading to brief periods of IFR. Winds calm becoming S/SE this afternoon and SE tomorrow.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night: VFR.
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
3 PM update...
Tonight...high confidence.
Offshore low continues to generate marginal SCA with NE winds up to 25 kt (in gusts, not sustained) and seas up to 6 ft across the eastern MA waters, slowly subside tonight. Vsby may be reduced to 1- 3 miles at times in drizzle and fog.
Monday... High confidence
Lows clouds/drizzle and patchy early morning fog with vsbys 1-3 miles, slowly burns off with improving conditions mid to late afternoon. High pressure over SNE results in light NE winds become east and then southeast late in the day.
Monday night...high confidence.
Ridge of high pressure crest over the waters, yielding light SE winds becoming SW. Patchy fog may limit vsby at times.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ254.
Upton, NY,
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