Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Racine, OH
May 19, 2024 3:04 PM EDT (19:04 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:07 AM Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 4:01 PM Moonset 3:04 AM |
FXUS61 KRLX 191817 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 217 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Outside the chance for showers/thunderstorms in the mountains this afternoon, a high pressure system will provide dry weather through Tuesday, with increasingly hot afternoons.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 215 PM Sunday...
Mid-upper level high pressure provides mainly dry weather with morning valley fog and afternoon cumulus amid above normal temperatures, which will reach at least the mid 80s across the lowlands this afternoon where they have not already, and then the upper 80s across the lowlands Monday afternoon. There will be somewhat of a ridge/valley split on lows tonight, lower 60s hilltops and upper 50s valleys, and 50s in the mountains.
A weak surface trough along the mountains, along with the elevated heat source effect, was providing enough focus for a more stout cumulus field, with some of the cumulus convection vigorous enough for a shower or even a thunderstorm. With precipitable water values under an inch, water issues are not anticipated. Mid-upper level ridging and less of a surface trough, if any, should keep Monday free of showers and thunderstorms altogether.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 216 PM Sunday...
Drier, and increasingly warmer weather is in store for Tuesday, as high pressure surface and aloft continues to build into the region.
Can't completely rule out an isolated shower or storm developing during peak heating hours Tuesday, provided something can break through the cap, but overall, expect much of Tuesday to remain dry.
With the building ridge across the area, some locations could even top out around 90 by Tuesday, which according to the nws heat risk map, sensitive individuals could be affected, even though this is below criteria for an advisory.
Low pressure will move northeast into Canada Tuesday into Wednesday, eventually sweeping a cold front across the area on Thursday.
Showers and storms will develop out ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the possibility of some storms becoming strong to severe, mainly across parts of SE Ohio and perhaps into NE KY, with a damaging wind threat.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1230 PM Sunday...
Frontal boundary will move through the region Thursday, potentially stalling out just to our south early Friday, as surface high pressure briefly builds in across the north. Most of the CWA will remain dry on Friday, however, isolated showers and storms will continue to be possible across the south in particular, closer to the front. Active weather will return over the weekend, with the approach of another system from the west.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 215 PM Sunday...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms firing in the mountains this afternoon may impact BKW, where VCTS/CB was coded, or even EKN.
Otherwise VFR conditions prevail amid a mainly scattered afternoon cumulus field.
VFR conditions on a mainly clear night tonight will likely again give way to valley fog, mainly in valleys in and near the mountains. The forecast reflects VLIFR dense fog at EKN 06Z or 07Z to 12Z, not quite as long as last night, and LIFR at CKB 08Z-12Z, burning off at both locations 12Z-13Z.
CRW and PKB will likely have a brief period of MVFR to IFR mist/fog just before and around dawn Monday morning, which should also then be gone by 13Z.
A VFR day is in store for Monday with an afternoon cumulus field, and a hot afternoon across the lowlands. High pressure aloft should keep the weather dry on Monday.
Light north to northeast to variable surface flow this afternoon will become calm tonight, and then light and variable to southeast on Monday. Light flow aloft through tonight will veer to light east and then light southeast on Monday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Light winds at EKN and BKW may vary in direction this afternoon on account of a weak surface trough nearby to the east. Timing and intensity of fog formation overnight tonight could vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 217 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Outside the chance for showers/thunderstorms in the mountains this afternoon, a high pressure system will provide dry weather through Tuesday, with increasingly hot afternoons.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 215 PM Sunday...
Mid-upper level high pressure provides mainly dry weather with morning valley fog and afternoon cumulus amid above normal temperatures, which will reach at least the mid 80s across the lowlands this afternoon where they have not already, and then the upper 80s across the lowlands Monday afternoon. There will be somewhat of a ridge/valley split on lows tonight, lower 60s hilltops and upper 50s valleys, and 50s in the mountains.
A weak surface trough along the mountains, along with the elevated heat source effect, was providing enough focus for a more stout cumulus field, with some of the cumulus convection vigorous enough for a shower or even a thunderstorm. With precipitable water values under an inch, water issues are not anticipated. Mid-upper level ridging and less of a surface trough, if any, should keep Monday free of showers and thunderstorms altogether.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 216 PM Sunday...
Drier, and increasingly warmer weather is in store for Tuesday, as high pressure surface and aloft continues to build into the region.
Can't completely rule out an isolated shower or storm developing during peak heating hours Tuesday, provided something can break through the cap, but overall, expect much of Tuesday to remain dry.
With the building ridge across the area, some locations could even top out around 90 by Tuesday, which according to the nws heat risk map, sensitive individuals could be affected, even though this is below criteria for an advisory.
Low pressure will move northeast into Canada Tuesday into Wednesday, eventually sweeping a cold front across the area on Thursday.
Showers and storms will develop out ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the possibility of some storms becoming strong to severe, mainly across parts of SE Ohio and perhaps into NE KY, with a damaging wind threat.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1230 PM Sunday...
Frontal boundary will move through the region Thursday, potentially stalling out just to our south early Friday, as surface high pressure briefly builds in across the north. Most of the CWA will remain dry on Friday, however, isolated showers and storms will continue to be possible across the south in particular, closer to the front. Active weather will return over the weekend, with the approach of another system from the west.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 215 PM Sunday...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms firing in the mountains this afternoon may impact BKW, where VCTS/CB was coded, or even EKN.
Otherwise VFR conditions prevail amid a mainly scattered afternoon cumulus field.
VFR conditions on a mainly clear night tonight will likely again give way to valley fog, mainly in valleys in and near the mountains. The forecast reflects VLIFR dense fog at EKN 06Z or 07Z to 12Z, not quite as long as last night, and LIFR at CKB 08Z-12Z, burning off at both locations 12Z-13Z.
CRW and PKB will likely have a brief period of MVFR to IFR mist/fog just before and around dawn Monday morning, which should also then be gone by 13Z.
A VFR day is in store for Monday with an afternoon cumulus field, and a hot afternoon across the lowlands. High pressure aloft should keep the weather dry on Monday.
Light north to northeast to variable surface flow this afternoon will become calm tonight, and then light and variable to southeast on Monday. Light flow aloft through tonight will veer to light east and then light southeast on Monday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Light winds at EKN and BKW may vary in direction this afternoon on account of a weak surface trough nearby to the east. Timing and intensity of fog formation overnight tonight could vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Charleston, WV,
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