Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:49 PM Moonrise 4:11 PM   Moonset 3:14 AM

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FXUS61 KILN 191422 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1022 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Much above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected through Monday, with a chance of showers and storms returning as early as Tuesday. The next widespread chance for showers and storms is likely Wednesday and Wednesday night, with slightly cooler and drier conditions for the second half of the workweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Narrow mid level ridge to build into the area today. Patchy river valley fog has improved leaving abundant sunshine. Expect only a few cumulus clouds and some thin high level clouds spilling in from the northwest. Mid level ridge and lack of forcing will inhibit convective development across most of the area today. Moderate instability axis develops into northwest Ohio around the periphery of the mid level ridge ahead of a surface front. An isold shower could slip into west central Ohio prior to dissipating late in the day into early evening.

With abundant sunshine temperatures will warm into the mid and upper 80s. These readings are 10 to 12 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
Mostly quiet conditions continue into the short term period as midlevel ridging briefly noses NE into the OH Vly tonight into early Monday. A S/W moving across the far nrn OH Vly late Monday afternoon/evening may provide /just/ enough forcing to initiate some SHRA/TSRA across nrn stretches of the region. But there are uncertainties in regards to how widespread, or how far south, this activity will extend. Once again, do think that most spots locally remain dry, but suppose that a stray late- day storm couldn't be ruled out, especially during the evening N of I-70 where the best LL moisture (and instby) should become established. Further to the S, meager instby should keep locales near/S of the OH Rvr dry through the period.

Lows tonight dip into the lower 60s (with some upper 50s expected in rural/valley/sheltered locales), with temps rebounding once again Monday afternoon into the mid to upper 80s area-wide. Temps through the next 3 days will generally be about 10 degrees above seasonal norms across the board.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Above normal temperatures will be present to start the extended period and will persist in the southerly flow ahead of a cold front through Wednesday. Latest guidance continues to delay frontal passage until Wednesday night. With warm, humid conditions and adequate upper level wind flow, some severe storm threat will exist Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night.

Cooler weather arrives behind the front Thursday into Friday.
Uncertainty increases with the next frontal system shifting east into the Upper Midwest over the weekend. Chance PoPs seems reasonable as flow becomes southerly again and low level moisture returns north into the Ohio Valley.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
After the BR/FG burns off/dissipates, VFR conditions will resume area-wide by 13z. Some FEW/SCT VFR Cu will sprout about by the afternoon, with the greatest coverage expected across the W for KDAY/KCVG/KLUK. The Cu should linger a bit past sunset, especially near KDAY, as a weak frontal boundary and a few SHRA nudges closer in from the NW toward the end of the period.

Light/VRB winds will prevail through the period, going more out of the NNE around 5kts during the daytime.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Wednesday into Wednesday night.
MVFR/IFR ceilings possible Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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