Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 3:58 PM   Moonset 2:59 AM

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FXUS63 KTOP 191734 AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1234 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms are likely by late this afternoon over central and north-central areas. All hazards will be possible with very large hail and possibly destructive winds being the primary threats. Also can't rule out a tornado or two mainly embedded along the line of storms especially through early evening. Uncertainty in how strong storms remain as they approach far eastern Kansas areas.

- The potential for severe thunderstorms continues into the early portions of the work week with the greatest concern still focused into Tuesday afternoon, mainly over northeast and into east-central Kansas. Exact coverage areas still appear to be uncertain at this time.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Currently, the upper air pattern is beginning to transition to a more active set up across the northern and central CONUS. A Pacific trough is digging south into the Pacific northwest and eventually into the intermountain West. This feature will allow for embedded shortwaves to eject over the Plains starting later today and last through Tuesday before the parent trough translates off over the Great Lakes and New England region. This sets up a few days of severe weather potential to impact the local area. This afternoon appears to be the greatest overall severe threat out of the next several days.

Early this morning a decaying MCS continues to advance into north central Kansas areas. This should allow for a few showers and thunderstorms to be ongoing by around sunrise through midday over north central into portions of northeastern Kansas areas and southeastern Nebraska. Through the day as the upper flow becomes more southwesterly across the central Rockies, southerly flow will increase into the area. This will help an old shallow cold front transition into a warm front and lift north with mid 60s dewpoints being transported into the area. The western extent of the front should become sharper over north central into central and west central Kansas areas. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop as an embedded shortwave ejects from the central Rockies by mid to late afternoon. While the EML over eastern Kansas appears to be stronger, sufficient mixing and low level convergence over western Kansas should help breach the cap by mid to late afternoon. Very steep mid level lapse rates allowing for strong instability to become established. As the shear profiles increase with mid to upper flow increasing and allowing for 40-50kts of shear, storms should begin to fire near the triple point region. These storms will likely be in an environment where they can quickly become severe. Thus, the threat for very large hail and destructive winds appear to be likely once storms develop. CAMS are in very good agreement in these storms congealing into a bowing segment over central into north central Kansas areas. As the LLJ intensifies into the early evening would expect these storms to develop possibly intense RIJs which could give way to destructive winds across portions of the area. Can't rule out one or two embedded tornadoes as the effective SRH also ramps up. Less confidence comes in how far east the destructive wind threat will extend as storms push into far eastern areas by late evening when storms may become more outflow dominant. Bottom line for this evening, campers and other outdoor events will need to have alternate plans and stay weather aware as the situation could rapidly change once storms develop.

Into Monday, the overall threat of severe storms is less certain as the best forcing appears to be displaced northwest into Nebraska. If storms initiate more over northeastern CO over the High Plains, the favored trajectory for storms may be just northwest of the area.
Portions of north-central and along the KS/NE state line will still have the chance for a few severe storms into the early overnight hours.

Tuesday, appears to still be lower confidence as the position of the modified Pacific cold front will be an important focal point for any afternoon and evening storms to develop along. The local area probably ends up along the southwestern extent of the overall severe threat. The main feature for this period appears to be the first main Pacific trough ejecting into the western Great Lakes region with the best forcing for ascent focused northeast of the area.
Obviously, this period is highly dependent on the mesoscale features in place at the time.

A modified surface ridge and broad mid level ridge should be in place through Wed and Thurs which keep overall cooler and dry conditions in place. The semi-permanent western trough digs into the west once again by Friday and could give more storm chances across the area to start the Memorial Day weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected outside of convection. Short term models differ on the timing of convection into the terminals and have opted to just go with vcts for a period at each site.
Will likely need to refine as storms develop. WInds will be southeasterly to southerly, initially starting out at MHK from the northeast, but a warm front will lift north with southerly winds expected for much of the period.

TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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