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FXUS61 KILN 200054 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 854 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Much above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected through Monday, with a chance of showers and storms returning as early as Tuesday. The next widespread chance for showers and storms is likely Wednesday and Wednesday night with the approach and passage of a cold front. Slightly cooler and drier conditions are in store for the end of workweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Narrow mid level ridge over the area this evening with only few high based cumulus clouds over the area. This ridge is offering a lack of forcing and has inhibited convective development.

With the exception of some valley fog - the overnight is expected to be quiet.

Mild lows tonight range from 60 to 65 with some upper 50s in rural sheltered locations.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Mid level ridge to remain centered just to ILN/s south Monday/Monday night.Expect daylight hours on Monday to remain dry with few to scattered cumulus clouds. Another warm day is in store for the region with highs in the mid and upper 80s.

A shortwave tracks thru the Great Lakes with the ridge being suppressed a little further south Monday night. Most models keep the area dry but a few of the solutions allow a shower/thunderstorm to drop into ILN/s northern counties late Monday night. Have kept the forecast dry at this time but there is some uncertainty.

Mild temperatures drop to lows in the lower and middle 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A warm day will be in place for Tuesday with high temperatures in the upper 80s. There will be the potential for afternoon pop up thunderstorms with the heating of the day. These will dissipate during the evening leaving a brief period of dry conditions.

An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected during the morning hours on Wednesday. How quickly this moves out will have an impact on how widespread the severe weather will be later in the day. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these thunderstorms will have the potential to be severe with damaging winds. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out. In addition, due to several rounds of precipitation expected, flash flooding will also be a concern. Expect this activity to continue into the night as a cold front works through the region. This feature will continue to push through on Thursday and precipitation chances will taper off.

Cooler air will be ushered into the region with highs in the 70s expected for Thursday and lows in the 50s Thursday night.
There is still quite a bit of model variation for Friday into the weekend on how much moisture will be drawn up into the region. Due to continued uncertainty during this time have limited precipitation chances Friday through Sunday to no more than the chance category.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mid level ridge axis across the region has prevented weak front to our northwest from making much progress southeast. Although the mid level ridge axis will slowly sag southeast overnight, the weak front will get weaker and more ill defined, and with loss of diurnal heating, any convection associated with it will wane. Thus, only some evening high based cumulus or altocumulus clouds are expected with just some skiffs of cirrus overnight.
Light to calm winds will bring the chance of some river valley fog. Thus, KLUK may see some MVFR visibilities with TEMPO IFR visibilities. Valley fog should dissipate around 13Z.

Mid level ridge axis will continue to slowly sag southeast on Monday. A mid level disturbance will move east/northeast on the back side of the mid level ridge into the Great Lakes.
Convection sparking with this feature looks to stay mainly north of our forecast area. Thus, Monday will feature more SCT diurnal cumulus clouds, which should dissipate after sunset, leaving some high level clouds in their place. Winds will increase from the south and southwest between 5 and 10 knots toward 16Z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday. Thunderstorms likely Wednesday into Wednesday night. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities to linger into Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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