Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Home, KS
May 20, 2024 4:19 AM CDT (09:19 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:06 AM Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 5:05 PM Moonset 3:24 AM |
FXUS63 KTOP 200832 AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 332 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Storms may be possible over northern areas mainly late tonight. If storms do occur then damaging winds would be the primary hazard along with hail as a secondary hazard.
- Severe weather may still be possible into late Tuesday afternoon into the early evening hours as a weak cold front works through the area. If storms do form across the area, expect the primary hazards to be large hail and damaging winds.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Currently, the upper air pattern remains mostly steady state with quasi-zonal to southwest flow in place across the central Plains. A pair of upper lows are evident over Canada. One over the Hudson Bay region with the other over central Canada with the main trough axis extending into the northern Rockies and through northern California.
Subtropical flow remains well south into the northern Mexico and southern Plains regions. Across the local area, the storm system from last night continues to lift northeast of the region. A few trailing showers remain north of I-70 into northeastern Kansas. South of the area into northeastern Oklahoma, an MCS is evident as it works east.
Today, temperatures should remain cooler than past days with clouds in place much of the day as an EML caps the atmosphere. Little in the way of obvious forcing looks to be in place today, so storms don't appear to be a high concern or probability through the day.
The primary focus for storms later tonight would be any outflow from an MCS that is forecast to work through central and northern Nebraska tonight after storms congeal into a line coming off the High Plains into this evening. Although the probability looks low for now across the northern areas to be impacted by any passing nocturnal storms, can't completely rule it out either. Expect damaging wind to the be the primary hazards if storms do occur again mainly into northern areas overnight tonight.
Tuesday still looks like the best chance for any storms to form along the cold front by mid to late afternoon. Forcing other that the front as a low level focus appears best displaced well to the northeast of the area with height falls into the upper MS Valley region. Could still see a few isolated storms breach the cap by late afternoon before they quickly exit the area. A hail and wind threat appear to be most in play with winds along the front veered more to the southwest.
A surface ridge builds into the area for mid to late week bringing cooler and dryer air to the region. Chances for showers and storms may even hold through much of the Memorial Day weekend until late Sunday when a more significant shortwave ejects from the central Rockies.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Trending toward VFR conditions as the current storm system departs the area. Uncertain about afternoon or evening convection for this cycle. Probability is too low to mention at this time. Winds should remain generally around 10kts with a southerly component through the period. Overall probability for hazardous aviation conditions appear low for this period.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 332 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Storms may be possible over northern areas mainly late tonight. If storms do occur then damaging winds would be the primary hazard along with hail as a secondary hazard.
- Severe weather may still be possible into late Tuesday afternoon into the early evening hours as a weak cold front works through the area. If storms do form across the area, expect the primary hazards to be large hail and damaging winds.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Currently, the upper air pattern remains mostly steady state with quasi-zonal to southwest flow in place across the central Plains. A pair of upper lows are evident over Canada. One over the Hudson Bay region with the other over central Canada with the main trough axis extending into the northern Rockies and through northern California.
Subtropical flow remains well south into the northern Mexico and southern Plains regions. Across the local area, the storm system from last night continues to lift northeast of the region. A few trailing showers remain north of I-70 into northeastern Kansas. South of the area into northeastern Oklahoma, an MCS is evident as it works east.
Today, temperatures should remain cooler than past days with clouds in place much of the day as an EML caps the atmosphere. Little in the way of obvious forcing looks to be in place today, so storms don't appear to be a high concern or probability through the day.
The primary focus for storms later tonight would be any outflow from an MCS that is forecast to work through central and northern Nebraska tonight after storms congeal into a line coming off the High Plains into this evening. Although the probability looks low for now across the northern areas to be impacted by any passing nocturnal storms, can't completely rule it out either. Expect damaging wind to the be the primary hazards if storms do occur again mainly into northern areas overnight tonight.
Tuesday still looks like the best chance for any storms to form along the cold front by mid to late afternoon. Forcing other that the front as a low level focus appears best displaced well to the northeast of the area with height falls into the upper MS Valley region. Could still see a few isolated storms breach the cap by late afternoon before they quickly exit the area. A hail and wind threat appear to be most in play with winds along the front veered more to the southwest.
A surface ridge builds into the area for mid to late week bringing cooler and dryer air to the region. Chances for showers and storms may even hold through much of the Memorial Day weekend until late Sunday when a more significant shortwave ejects from the central Rockies.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Trending toward VFR conditions as the current storm system departs the area. Uncertain about afternoon or evening convection for this cycle. Probability is too low to mention at this time. Winds should remain generally around 10kts with a southerly component through the period. Overall probability for hazardous aviation conditions appear low for this period.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMYZ MARYSVILLE MUNI,KS | 7 sm | 24 min | ENE 03 | 10 sm | Overcast | 61°F | 61°F | 100% | 29.75 |
Topeka, KS,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE