Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 8:47 PM Moonrise 5:09 PM   Moonset 3:29 AM

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LEZ144 Expires:202405200215;;496610 Fzus51 Kcle 191940 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 340 pm edt Sun may 19 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-200215- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 340 pm edt Sun may 19 2024
Tonight - East winds 10 knots or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of Thunderstorms with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 66 degrees, off cleveland 55 degrees, and off erie 51 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KILN 200516 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 116 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Much above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected through Monday, with a chance of showers and storms returning as early as Tuesday. The next widespread chance for showers and storms is likely Wednesday and Wednesday night with the approach and passage of a cold front. Slightly cooler and drier conditions are in store for the end of workweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
A few stray showers/storms were able to erupt across our far north this evening, likely triggered by a subtle outflow boundary or gravity wave. These should not last that much longer into the night as instability slowly drops and forcing becomes minimal.

Otherwise, a mid level ridge over the area this evening will slowly sag southeast overnight. There will be some convective debris spillover across the north (mainly cirrus), but that should thin overnight. The south is expected to remain mainly clear. Some valley fog may develop across our southern/eastern river valleys. Tonight will be warm with lows ranging from 60 to 65 with perhaps a few upper 50s in rural/sheltered locations.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Mid level ridge to remain centered just to ILN/s south Monday/Monday night.Expect daylight hours on Monday to remain dry with few to scattered cumulus clouds. Another warm day is in store for the region with highs in the mid and upper 80s.

A shortwave tracks thru the Great Lakes with the ridge being suppressed a little further south Monday night. Most models keep the area dry but a few of the solutions allow a shower/thunderstorm to drop into ILN/s northern counties late Monday night. Have kept the forecast dry at this time but there is some uncertainty.

Mild temperatures drop to lows in the lower and middle 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A warm day will be in place for Tuesday with high temperatures in the upper 80s. There will be the potential for afternoon pop up thunderstorms with the heating of the day. These will dissipate during the evening leaving a brief period of dry conditions.

An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected during the morning hours on Wednesday. How quickly this moves out will have an impact on how widespread the severe weather will be later in the day. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these thunderstorms will have the potential to be severe with damaging winds. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out. In addition, due to several rounds of precipitation expected, flash flooding will also be a concern. Expect this activity to continue into the night as a cold front works through the region. This feature will continue to push through on Thursday and precipitation chances will taper off.

Cooler air will be ushered into the region with highs in the 70s expected for Thursday and lows in the 50s Thursday night.
There is still quite a bit of model variation for Friday into the weekend on how much moisture will be drawn up into the region. Due to continued uncertainty during this time have limited precipitation chances Friday through Sunday to no more than the chance category.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mainly tranquil conditions will prevail through daybreak as the only item of interest will be the development of some river valley BR/FG once again at KLUK, with MVFR/IFR VSBYs possible at the site through about 13z. Thereafter, VFR Cu around 5-6kft will sprout about again area-wide for the afternoon before waning in coverage past sunset. There will be some increased cloud cover, and perhaps some ISO convection, approach parts of WC OH toward the end of the TAF period, but this activity should stay NW of even KDAY through 06z.

Light/VRB/calm winds will go more out of the SSW during the daytime, staying generally 6-8kts or less through the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Wednesday into Thursday morning.
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities to linger into Thursday.
Additional chances for thunderstorms are possible Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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