Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 4:44 PM   Moonset 3:04 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 259 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Overnight - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.Mon night - S winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves flat. Patchy fog. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves flat. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 259 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will build over the waters through Tuesday. A strong cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal system will settle south of the area by the end of the work week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.

FXUS61 KCTP 200711 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 311 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure is building into the region. Predominantly dry conditions, light winds and warmer temperatures are expected to hold into the middle of the upcoming week. A storm system should arrive later Wednesday into Thursday bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Earlier cu has all but dissipated, leaving mainly clear skies across Central PA. Surprisingly, BFD has already seen it's vsby drop below 1 mile, so fog is already beginning to form in a few favored locations.

A light easterly flow in the llvls persists and could once again bring in Atlantic moisture overnight. Expect stratus to return to the ern half (or more) of the CWA There could also be fog around overnight, but lack of rainfall during the day and the potential for the development of low clouds may work against it. Dewpoints should remain in the 50s, however, and min temps should dip to near the dewpoint.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
As with Sunday AM, any low clouds will have to burn away with the mid-May sun. However, earlier dissipation of the stratus should help temps Monday aftn rise a few to several degrees warmer than Sunday's maxes.

There could be just enough instability across the nrn tier of counties in the aftn to pop a lonesome SHRA/TSRA. Left PoPs in the 20-30pct range for now. The support aloft is tough to find except for perhaps a short wave trough rolling over the upper Great Lakes.

Mon night looks similar to the last few nights, with perhaps less of a reprisal of the nighttime stratus. There could still be some fog, but we've only mentioned patchy fog for the time being. Mins will probably be a bit milder than Mon AM as well.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Tuesday and Wednesday will be very warm days with south to southwesterly flow and plentiful sunshine. Expect highs to reach the 80s both days, and some valley spots could even touch 90 degrees on Wed aftn.

Surface low pressure is progged to track north of the Great Lakes and well north of PA during the mid to late week period.
The associated cold front will cross Pennsylvania Wed night or early Thurs, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms.

After the front moves through, uncertainty remains as to how far to our south it will settle before stalling. This could keep a chc of showers across at least southern PA through the end of the week.

There is considerable uncertainty heading into next weekend, but it appears that there is a chc that our weather could remain unsettled.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Valley fog has developed across the northwest 2/3 of the airspace resulting in localized visibility at or below airfield minimums (1/2-1/4SM). Max IFR fog confidence is focused over the south central terminals AOO/JST/UNV based on obs trends and IR satellite imagery. Expect VFR/IFR fluctuations at BFD. MVFR to IFR stratus layer expanding over southeast PA and will impact LNS/MDT and perhaps IPT-which may also experience restrictions in fog through the predawn hours.

Valley fog will dissipate quickly in the morning, but the low clouds in the southeast airspace will be slower to break. MVFR ceilings could remain in place across the Lower Susquehanna Valley through 18Z. Widespread VFR conditions are expected once fog/low cloud erode with light winds. Some guidance shows the potential for a isolated thunderstorm across the northern tier later this afternoon, but confidence/coverage remains too low to include mention in the TAFs.

Outlook...

Tue...VFR/no sig wx.

Wed-Thu...Chance of t-storms.

Fri...Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Mon -- 03:43 AM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:33 AM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM EDT     1.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:26 PM EDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
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Mon -- 02:26 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:39 AM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:40 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:09 PM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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