Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Raymer (New Raymer), CO
May 19, 2024 2:51 PM MDT (20:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:36 AM Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 4:35 PM Moonset 3:33 AM |
Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 191636 AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1036 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Risk (50-60% chance) of a severe storm or two across the far northeast plains this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers/storms with gusty outflow winds elsewhere.
- Another round of strong to severe storms possible Monday afternoon into Monday evening across most of the eastern plains.
- Cooler, wetter pattern late Monday into Tuesday as a couple weak systems track across the region
- Warming/drying trend for the second half of next week
UPDATE
Issued at 1036 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Satellite shows a broad trough to our northwest, resulting in moderate west/southwest flow aloft. At the surface, moisture advection was occurring across the northeast plains with dewpoints increasing into the lower to mid 50s roughly along and east of a Fort Morgan to Limon line. Satellite also shows some cumulus already developing across the mountains, with sufficient mid level moisture still in place per water vapor imagery and 12Z Grand Junction sounding. ACARS soundings from Denver show a rather shallow inversion, resulting in a fast warmup and probably an earlier than normal day for convection.
Overall the forecast is on track for isolated to scattered showers and relatively high based storms with gusty winds this afternoon, and a threat of severe storms over the northeast corner. A dryline will develop with further mixing (once we hit convective temps along the Front Range), and then shift eastward across the plains during the afternoon. The highest MLCAPE is expected to set up roughly along and east of a Sterling to Akron line, where values ~1500 J/kg expected with low to mid 50s dewpoints. Thus, we'll have a threat of severe storms for those locations mid to late afternoon with sufficient instability and bulk shear.
Exact location of the severe storms is still a little uncertain when taking a look at a couple cirrus cloud bands and CAM output, but the ingredients including sufficient shear are there.
Straightline hodographs would favor large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats.
West of the dryline, gusty outflow winds will be the primary threat with higher based showers and isolated storms, along with DCAPE near 1300 J/kg. Thus, would not be surprised to see some gusts to 50 mph with that activity. Things should settle down a little earlier than normal with weak subsidence spreading across the forecast area this afternoon and evening.
SHORT TERM /Through tonight/
Issued at 415 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Water vapor imagery shows a broad trough has moved over the western US with southwesterly flow over Colorado. There is decent mid level moisture and weak large scale ascent which has led to a few showers forming over the far northeast plains this morning.
Drier air moving in along with downslope surface winds will help high temperatures reach well above normal with highs in the 80s across the urban corridor and pains this afternoon.
During the afternoon, there will be slight instability that forms across much of the CWA which will allow for weak showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two to form. The dry low level airmass with steep lapse rates means that any showers or storms that form could create strong wind gusts potentially up to 45 mph. Across the far northeast plains, it will be a different story. There will be much higher low level moisture to the east of a dryline.
Instability will be much greater with most unstable CAPE values exceeding 1,500 j/kg. With sufficient shear and forcing, strong to severe storms may form with large hail and damaging wind gusts possible. The most likely area for the severe storms would be east of a line from Sterling to Akron.
Showers and storms will dissipate tonight. There will be a couple weak cold fronts that will allow for temperatures to cool into the 40s across the plains.
LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/
Issued at 315 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
More organized convection is expected across portions of the forecast area on Monday. Guidance is largely in good agreement with the synoptic scale pattern here, but important mesoscale details remain uncertain across our forecast. Broad southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated ahead of an approaching positively tilted trough axis. A weak southern stream shortwave is expected to race across the region from Monday afternoon into Monday night, with lee cyclogenesis expected somewhere in eastern Colorado. To the north of this low, moist, east/northeasterly flow is expected to develop, with surface dew points gradually increasing into the upper 40s to mid 50s in northeastern Colorado. Wherever this warm/moist sector develops, guidance depicts a favorable environment for strong to severe storms for a brief period late Monday afternoon into Monday evening, with MLCAPE values near 500-1000 J/kg in along with good 0-6km speed/directional wind shear. A few hi-res models try to develop storms as far west as the I-25 corridor, though HRRR/NCAR FV3 ensembles generally keep the higher probability corridor near the eastern edge of our CWA
These marginal events are always difficult to forecast, and therefore it wouldn't be surprising to see shifts in the current SPC outlook as we get closer to the event... but at the very least, a conditional severe storm threat is becoming more likely for Monday.
By Tuesday, the first shortwave should be exiting the region, with some lingering showers/storms possible across the northeast plains. With the passage of a strong cold front, highs should be much cooler across the region... only peaking in the upper 50s to low 60s. Still, modest boundary-layer moisture combined with larger scale ascent from a trailing shortwave should be enough for additional showers and a few storms by the afternoon, especially across the Front Range/urban corridor where shallow upslope flow should develop. Model soundings show a humidity rich 700-400mb layer with only modest instability, which in all likelihood would limit the severe threat. Still couldn't rule out briefly heavy rain along with some hail, but the potential certainly looks lower than Monday's threat.
Wednesday will be much quieter across the forecast area with temperatures warming back up into the 60s/70s. A drier airmass should advect into the region with typical inverted-V type soundings with minimal CAPE. Can't rule out a few high-based, mostly virga, showers but these should stay isolated in coverage.
A continued warming/drying trend is expected into Thursday as southwesterly flow aloft strengthens. A weak shortwave is forecast to track to our north with minimal impacts from this feature.
Again a few showers and storms will be possible across the higher elevations and along the northern border of our CWA
As we enter the latter half of the week into next weekend, forecast uncertainty increases quickly. There is generally good agreement that a broad upper trough/closed upper low will meander across the Pacific Northwest, with one or more shortwaves pivoting around the main trough axis. However, there is little agreement in the timing and placement of any of these finer-scale details and thus little reason to deviate from the multi-model mean. The general pattern would favor near normal temperatures with daily chances (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms across the region.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/
Issued at 1036 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Main concern is gusty outflow winds from high based showers or virga this afternoon.
ACARS soundings show the inversion weakening and we're starting to mix a little better now. While we could go variable winds for an hour or two initially, overall a west to northwest wind should prevail through 00Z. We are already starting to see cumulus develop in/near the mountains, and thermal/moisture profiles would suggest strong and gusty outflow wind potential to ~40 knots possible with any high based convective activity. Coverage is expected to be great enough per upstream satellite imagery to warrant VRB gusty winds with a VCSH from around 19Z to ~00Z. The threat of any thunder is less than 10%.
Winds should settle down toward 00Z but could still be variable between northerly and east or southeast. A cold front then arrives toward 09Z-11Z with a northeasterly push of winds. That will also usher in higher low level moisture with potential for stratus. At this point, the upslope appears pretty shallow and weak, so we'll just go with SCT clouds around 3000 ft AGL for the Denver area TAF sites 12Z-16Z. There's about a 30% chance it goes BKN for MVFR ceilings.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1036 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Risk (50-60% chance) of a severe storm or two across the far northeast plains this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers/storms with gusty outflow winds elsewhere.
- Another round of strong to severe storms possible Monday afternoon into Monday evening across most of the eastern plains.
- Cooler, wetter pattern late Monday into Tuesday as a couple weak systems track across the region
- Warming/drying trend for the second half of next week
UPDATE
Issued at 1036 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Satellite shows a broad trough to our northwest, resulting in moderate west/southwest flow aloft. At the surface, moisture advection was occurring across the northeast plains with dewpoints increasing into the lower to mid 50s roughly along and east of a Fort Morgan to Limon line. Satellite also shows some cumulus already developing across the mountains, with sufficient mid level moisture still in place per water vapor imagery and 12Z Grand Junction sounding. ACARS soundings from Denver show a rather shallow inversion, resulting in a fast warmup and probably an earlier than normal day for convection.
Overall the forecast is on track for isolated to scattered showers and relatively high based storms with gusty winds this afternoon, and a threat of severe storms over the northeast corner. A dryline will develop with further mixing (once we hit convective temps along the Front Range), and then shift eastward across the plains during the afternoon. The highest MLCAPE is expected to set up roughly along and east of a Sterling to Akron line, where values ~1500 J/kg expected with low to mid 50s dewpoints. Thus, we'll have a threat of severe storms for those locations mid to late afternoon with sufficient instability and bulk shear.
Exact location of the severe storms is still a little uncertain when taking a look at a couple cirrus cloud bands and CAM output, but the ingredients including sufficient shear are there.
Straightline hodographs would favor large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats.
West of the dryline, gusty outflow winds will be the primary threat with higher based showers and isolated storms, along with DCAPE near 1300 J/kg. Thus, would not be surprised to see some gusts to 50 mph with that activity. Things should settle down a little earlier than normal with weak subsidence spreading across the forecast area this afternoon and evening.
SHORT TERM /Through tonight/
Issued at 415 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Water vapor imagery shows a broad trough has moved over the western US with southwesterly flow over Colorado. There is decent mid level moisture and weak large scale ascent which has led to a few showers forming over the far northeast plains this morning.
Drier air moving in along with downslope surface winds will help high temperatures reach well above normal with highs in the 80s across the urban corridor and pains this afternoon.
During the afternoon, there will be slight instability that forms across much of the CWA which will allow for weak showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two to form. The dry low level airmass with steep lapse rates means that any showers or storms that form could create strong wind gusts potentially up to 45 mph. Across the far northeast plains, it will be a different story. There will be much higher low level moisture to the east of a dryline.
Instability will be much greater with most unstable CAPE values exceeding 1,500 j/kg. With sufficient shear and forcing, strong to severe storms may form with large hail and damaging wind gusts possible. The most likely area for the severe storms would be east of a line from Sterling to Akron.
Showers and storms will dissipate tonight. There will be a couple weak cold fronts that will allow for temperatures to cool into the 40s across the plains.
LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/
Issued at 315 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
More organized convection is expected across portions of the forecast area on Monday. Guidance is largely in good agreement with the synoptic scale pattern here, but important mesoscale details remain uncertain across our forecast. Broad southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated ahead of an approaching positively tilted trough axis. A weak southern stream shortwave is expected to race across the region from Monday afternoon into Monday night, with lee cyclogenesis expected somewhere in eastern Colorado. To the north of this low, moist, east/northeasterly flow is expected to develop, with surface dew points gradually increasing into the upper 40s to mid 50s in northeastern Colorado. Wherever this warm/moist sector develops, guidance depicts a favorable environment for strong to severe storms for a brief period late Monday afternoon into Monday evening, with MLCAPE values near 500-1000 J/kg in along with good 0-6km speed/directional wind shear. A few hi-res models try to develop storms as far west as the I-25 corridor, though HRRR/NCAR FV3 ensembles generally keep the higher probability corridor near the eastern edge of our CWA
These marginal events are always difficult to forecast, and therefore it wouldn't be surprising to see shifts in the current SPC outlook as we get closer to the event... but at the very least, a conditional severe storm threat is becoming more likely for Monday.
By Tuesday, the first shortwave should be exiting the region, with some lingering showers/storms possible across the northeast plains. With the passage of a strong cold front, highs should be much cooler across the region... only peaking in the upper 50s to low 60s. Still, modest boundary-layer moisture combined with larger scale ascent from a trailing shortwave should be enough for additional showers and a few storms by the afternoon, especially across the Front Range/urban corridor where shallow upslope flow should develop. Model soundings show a humidity rich 700-400mb layer with only modest instability, which in all likelihood would limit the severe threat. Still couldn't rule out briefly heavy rain along with some hail, but the potential certainly looks lower than Monday's threat.
Wednesday will be much quieter across the forecast area with temperatures warming back up into the 60s/70s. A drier airmass should advect into the region with typical inverted-V type soundings with minimal CAPE. Can't rule out a few high-based, mostly virga, showers but these should stay isolated in coverage.
A continued warming/drying trend is expected into Thursday as southwesterly flow aloft strengthens. A weak shortwave is forecast to track to our north with minimal impacts from this feature.
Again a few showers and storms will be possible across the higher elevations and along the northern border of our CWA
As we enter the latter half of the week into next weekend, forecast uncertainty increases quickly. There is generally good agreement that a broad upper trough/closed upper low will meander across the Pacific Northwest, with one or more shortwaves pivoting around the main trough axis. However, there is little agreement in the timing and placement of any of these finer-scale details and thus little reason to deviate from the multi-model mean. The general pattern would favor near normal temperatures with daily chances (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms across the region.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/
Issued at 1036 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024
Main concern is gusty outflow winds from high based showers or virga this afternoon.
ACARS soundings show the inversion weakening and we're starting to mix a little better now. While we could go variable winds for an hour or two initially, overall a west to northwest wind should prevail through 00Z. We are already starting to see cumulus develop in/near the mountains, and thermal/moisture profiles would suggest strong and gusty outflow wind potential to ~40 knots possible with any high based convective activity. Coverage is expected to be great enough per upstream satellite imagery to warrant VRB gusty winds with a VCSH from around 19Z to ~00Z. The threat of any thunder is less than 10%.
Winds should settle down toward 00Z but could still be variable between northerly and east or southeast. A cold front then arrives toward 09Z-11Z with a northeasterly push of winds. That will also usher in higher low level moisture with potential for stratus. At this point, the upslope appears pretty shallow and weak, so we'll just go with SCT clouds around 3000 ft AGL for the Denver area TAF sites 12Z-16Z. There's about a 30% chance it goes BKN for MVFR ceilings.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Cheyenne, WY,
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