Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cozad, NE
May 19, 2024 8:07 PM CDT (01:07 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 9:00 PM Moonrise 4:19 PM Moonset 3:17 AM |
FXUS63 KGID 200011 AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 711 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Thunderstorms largely evade south central Nebraska and north central Kansas this evening and overnight, though a brief flare up isolated strong storms can't be ruled out late S of the state line.
- Another round of storms (some severe) is expected on Monday afternoon through Monday night, though details on timing/coverage remain somewhat uncertain. The trend has been for activity to arrive/develop later (near or after sunset).
- Storm chances linger into Tuesday, with conditions trending drier Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
UPDATE
Issued at 710 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Will be working on an update shortly to lower shower and tstm chances further for the rest of the evening and overnight as it appears the bulk of activity will remain mostly W and S of the forecast area. Hopefully we'll be able to coordinate a watch cancellation soon, as well...though the low confidence of what exactly will happen with the convection in NW KS may dictate otherwise. Bottom line, though, even if the low end chance for additional tstms indeed pans out, this would likely be limited to far SW-S zones, and be marginally severe, at best. This is due to persistent cloud cover that has done well to reduce destabilization potential and keep temps considerably cooler than once forecast. Furthermore, latest model guidance suggests the bulk of convergence and WAA on nose of developing LLJ will be "blocked" by the ongoing MCS over central KS. Perhaps some isolated tstms flare up S of the state line late overnight as the LLJ veers, but severe weather would be unlikely.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Today has been a tricky forecast. As hinted by some of the near-term models, an isolated supercell has developed in northern Kansas. This has turned eastward and is JUST south of our forecast area in Russell County as of 330pm. This storm will be capable of all severe hazards (tornado, wind, very large hail) as it slowly meanders eastward over the next few hours.
In addition to this, convection contuse to develop in southwest Kansas and eastern Colorado. High-resolution models show this activity continuing to develop into one or more west-east propagating squall lines capable of dangerously strong winds (75+ MPH). That said, the WoFS (Warn on Forecast System) has been keeping the bulk of this activity south of our area entirely.
Additional convection over the Nebraska panhandle could push into central Nebraska later this evening, but should be on an overall weakening trend. In fact, some of the latest HRRR runs have this activity completely dissipating before it reaches us.
Monday will bring another risk for severe storms to the area.
There is still plenty uncertainty on exact details regarding coverage and exact location, but it appears that the timing will favor the later side, with some models (notably the NAMnest)
bringing us little to no convection until after midnight. Strong deep-layer shear (40-50kt) will allow for a continued severe threat with any storms that develop into the early morning hours of Tuesday.
A few thunderstorms could redevelop Tuesday morning and early afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Gusty northwest winds will arrive behind this front, and drier conditions are also expected to return Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
The upper pattern remains fairly busy through next weekend, with continued chances for rain and thunderstorms. Above-normal precipitation continues to be favored through the Memorial Day weekend before possibly turning a bit drier as we head into June.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
LOW confidence TAF cycle given uncertainties with CIGs and VSBYs due to convection in the region.
Have removed any mention of VCSH or VCTS as it appears any activity will remain pretty far W/S of the area tonight. While that is one aspect of the forecast that have come into some clarity, the late overnight trends for stratus and/or fog have not. In general, models have been trending towards more stratus and perhaps even some light fog - neither of which seem unplausible given a period of lgt (and somewhat variable) low level flow ahead of a front, and recent rainfall both locally and upstream to the S. Didn't feel comfortable carrying a VFR TAF all night, so leaned towards the IFR stratus as being more likely than IFR/MVFR VSBY's, but will have to closely monitor trends for potential amendments. Appears stratus could linger into at least mid to late AM as CIGs rise to MVFR, then scatter out some for the aftn.
Winds will generally remain out of the S this eve, then bec lgt and vrbl for a time before veering to the SW/W after 06Z, then NW towards dawn behind a weak front. N-NNE winds around 7-11kt look to prevail late AM thru the aftn. Confidence on wind is medium.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 711 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Thunderstorms largely evade south central Nebraska and north central Kansas this evening and overnight, though a brief flare up isolated strong storms can't be ruled out late S of the state line.
- Another round of storms (some severe) is expected on Monday afternoon through Monday night, though details on timing/coverage remain somewhat uncertain. The trend has been for activity to arrive/develop later (near or after sunset).
- Storm chances linger into Tuesday, with conditions trending drier Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
UPDATE
Issued at 710 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Will be working on an update shortly to lower shower and tstm chances further for the rest of the evening and overnight as it appears the bulk of activity will remain mostly W and S of the forecast area. Hopefully we'll be able to coordinate a watch cancellation soon, as well...though the low confidence of what exactly will happen with the convection in NW KS may dictate otherwise. Bottom line, though, even if the low end chance for additional tstms indeed pans out, this would likely be limited to far SW-S zones, and be marginally severe, at best. This is due to persistent cloud cover that has done well to reduce destabilization potential and keep temps considerably cooler than once forecast. Furthermore, latest model guidance suggests the bulk of convergence and WAA on nose of developing LLJ will be "blocked" by the ongoing MCS over central KS. Perhaps some isolated tstms flare up S of the state line late overnight as the LLJ veers, but severe weather would be unlikely.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Today has been a tricky forecast. As hinted by some of the near-term models, an isolated supercell has developed in northern Kansas. This has turned eastward and is JUST south of our forecast area in Russell County as of 330pm. This storm will be capable of all severe hazards (tornado, wind, very large hail) as it slowly meanders eastward over the next few hours.
In addition to this, convection contuse to develop in southwest Kansas and eastern Colorado. High-resolution models show this activity continuing to develop into one or more west-east propagating squall lines capable of dangerously strong winds (75+ MPH). That said, the WoFS (Warn on Forecast System) has been keeping the bulk of this activity south of our area entirely.
Additional convection over the Nebraska panhandle could push into central Nebraska later this evening, but should be on an overall weakening trend. In fact, some of the latest HRRR runs have this activity completely dissipating before it reaches us.
Monday will bring another risk for severe storms to the area.
There is still plenty uncertainty on exact details regarding coverage and exact location, but it appears that the timing will favor the later side, with some models (notably the NAMnest)
bringing us little to no convection until after midnight. Strong deep-layer shear (40-50kt) will allow for a continued severe threat with any storms that develop into the early morning hours of Tuesday.
A few thunderstorms could redevelop Tuesday morning and early afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Gusty northwest winds will arrive behind this front, and drier conditions are also expected to return Tuesday evening through Wednesday.
The upper pattern remains fairly busy through next weekend, with continued chances for rain and thunderstorms. Above-normal precipitation continues to be favored through the Memorial Day weekend before possibly turning a bit drier as we head into June.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
LOW confidence TAF cycle given uncertainties with CIGs and VSBYs due to convection in the region.
Have removed any mention of VCSH or VCTS as it appears any activity will remain pretty far W/S of the area tonight. While that is one aspect of the forecast that have come into some clarity, the late overnight trends for stratus and/or fog have not. In general, models have been trending towards more stratus and perhaps even some light fog - neither of which seem unplausible given a period of lgt (and somewhat variable) low level flow ahead of a front, and recent rainfall both locally and upstream to the S. Didn't feel comfortable carrying a VFR TAF all night, so leaned towards the IFR stratus as being more likely than IFR/MVFR VSBY's, but will have to closely monitor trends for potential amendments. Appears stratus could linger into at least mid to late AM as CIGs rise to MVFR, then scatter out some for the aftn.
Winds will generally remain out of the S this eve, then bec lgt and vrbl for a time before veering to the SW/W after 06Z, then NW towards dawn behind a weak front. N-NNE winds around 7-11kt look to prevail late AM thru the aftn. Confidence on wind is medium.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLXN JIM KELLY FIELD,NE | 12 sm | 12 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 64°F | 83% | 29.72 |
Grand Island, NE,
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