Sunrise 5:29 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 4:27 PM   Moonset 3:29 AM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 732 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming around 5 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Fri - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 732 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure along the northeast coast and extending into the mid atlantic region will remain in place through Monday night, and then begin to slide offshore Tuesday. Offshore high pressure going into midweek gives way to an approaching cold front Thursday. This cold front moves across Thursday night. Weak high pressure returns to the local area thereafter for Friday into Friday night. Another low pressure system may impact the area next weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 191954 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 354 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure, along the northeast coast and extending into the mid Atlantic region, will remain in place through Monday night, and then begin to slide offshore Tuesday. Offshore high pressure going into midweek gives way to an approaching cold front Thursday. This cold front moves across Thursday night.
Weak high pressure returns to the local area thereafter for Friday into Friday night. Another low pressure system may impact the area next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
An upper ridge extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into the northeast remains in place as does a surface high along the northeast coast into the mid Atlantic region. Low level light northeast flow will keep an inversion in place through tonight and with low level moisture in place, low clouds are expected to remain. Drier air aloft and weak subsidence should keep most of the area dry overnight, with the exception far eastern Long Island where light drizzle will be possible. Temperatures will be fairly uniform across the region with overnight lows generally in the lower to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
The upper ridge remains Monday and begins to flatten as a weak shortwave moves into the northern periphery of the ridge Monday night into Tuesday. The surface high remain through Monday night and slowly moves offshore Tuesday. Low level clouds in place Monday morning will be slow to erode from the west to the east and mixing increases, and the low level inversion is mixed out. Low clouds across eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut may not erode until around midday. Developing southerly flow, and sea breezes will keep the coastal and eastern areas relatively cool, near seasonal normals, while inland areas warm into the upper 70s and around 80s, 5 to near 10 degrees above seasonal normals.

Monday night remains dry with near normal temperatures. An with little low level moisture remaining in the area, mostly clear conditions are expected. A weak return flow sets up Tuesday, along with the airmass modifying under increased incoming solar radiation. Inland temperatures will peak in the lower to mid 80s with coastal areas in the lower to mid 70s. With dew points remaining in the mid to upper 50s, the airmass will be relatively dry with maximum apparent temperatures near afternoon highs.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Some key points during this timeframe:

* Near 90 degree temperatures forecast away from the coast Wednesday. Some 90 to lower 90s high temperatures possible Wednesday. Temperatures a few degrees cooler forecast for Thursday.

* Chance of thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night, possibly strong to severe across parts of the interior.

High pressure will remain across the area with its center well offshore in the Western Atlantic Tuesday night through Wednesday. This will eventually give way to an approaching cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. The parent low attached to this front will be weakening slightly as it moves north of the Great Lakes.

Some substantial low level warm air advection is forecast for both Wednesday and Thursday with steady SW flow. Warmest day forecast for most locations will be Wednesday with plenty of sun and 850mb temperatures rising to around 16 to 17 degrees C according to different large scale numerical weather prediction models. Surface high temperatures are forecast to range from the lower 70s along the coast of Eastern Long Island to upper 80s across parts of the interior and within parts of NYC. With forecast dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s, forecast heat indices are right near the actual temperature.

Some guidance is indicating potential for Wednesday high temperatures to be a few degrees higher than forecast so a few 90 or even lower 90s degree temperatures could very well be possible.

High temperatures forecast on Thursday are more in the low 70s to mid 80s range, with a lot of locations forecast to be slightly cooler due to increased clouds. However, some locations on Long Island are actually having high temperatures forecast slightly warmer than the previous day due to some relatively warmer air getting mixed down adiabatically.

There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms out ahead and along the cold front for Thursday into Thursday night. The cold front is forecast to move across Thursday night. Chances for showers and thunderstorms decrease late Thursday night after the cold frontal passage.

There is potential for some thunderstorms to be strong to severe with the cold front with surface CAPE forecast to be up to near 2000 J/kg and forecast 0-6 km AGL bulk shear of 35 to 45 kt. This combination is forecast to be across locations north and west of NYC. No hydrologic concerns at this time as showers and thunderstorms will be fast moving, really limiting total rainfall accumulations.

Dry conditions are forecast Friday through Friday night with the return of weak high pressure. High temperatures Friday are forecast still to be above normal but cooler than the two previous days, with a range mainly between 70 and 80 degrees for much of the area.

Rain showers return to the forecast for next weekend but probabilities are low initially with more of a chance for next Sunday. This will be as another low pressure system makes its approach and may get close enough to the local region to give higher chances of rain.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Weak surface high pressure remains over the area through Monday.

VFR through at least midnight. MVFR cigs mainly during the morning push hours, then VFR by noontime Monday.

Winds NE near 10kt this afternoon outside of sea breezes where winds will be more SE-S. Winds diminish tonight. Sea breezes return late Monday morning, shifting winds SE-S near 10 kt.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Chance that sea breeze does not reach KLGA and KTEB.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR. Chc S-SW gusts around 20kt both afternoons.

Thursday: VFR in the morning, then a chance of afternoon and evening MVFR with showers and thunderstorms. Chc SW gusts around 20kt.

Friday: VFR. Chc NW gusts around 20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-advisory conditions are expected across all waters through the end of next week.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the upcoming week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Bay Shore
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Sun -- 01:58 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:52 AM EDT     0.77 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:50 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     1.01 feet High Tide
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Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Bay Shore
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Sun -- 02:06 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:43 AM EDT     0.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:18 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     0.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bay Shore, Watchogue Creek Entrance, Long Island, New York (2), Tide feet

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