Sunrise 5:37 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 3:38 PM   Moonset 2:38 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 934 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
Today - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Mon - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.Thu night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 934 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure over the northeast will gradually strengthen and build south to the mid atlantic states into Monday. The high will then gradually slide east through midweek. A cold front approaches from the west Wednesday night and moves across Thursday into Thursday night. Brief weak high pressure returns towards the end of the week.

FXUS61 KBGM 191729 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 129 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Increasing sunshine is expected this afternoon and evening with temperatures rising into the 70s. Tomorrow is looking even warmer, with dry and mostly sunny weather expected. Very warm temperatures are expected Tuesday into Wednesday with a chance for thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front approaches the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
1250 PM Update...

Increased cloud cover over the next few hours, as the dry air is taking longer to mix in than expected. Can't rule out an isolated rain shower over the southern Catskills and/or Poconos later this afternoon as well. Otherwise, the current forecast remains on track and temperatures will still reach into the 70s areawide later this afternoon. A few locations such as Syracuse and Elmira are likely to reach the lower 80s.

930 AM Update...

Stubborn morning clouds will linger a few more hours, but then we are still expecting plenty of sunshine this afternoon as drier air mixes into the region. Overall, no significant changes to the forecast at this time.

630 AM update...
Decided to lower cloud cover this afternoon more as water vapor imagery has very dry air moving overhead and with day time mixing there is a greater likelihood that models are overdoing boundary layer moisture. Temperatures were kept as is for now but if the clouds end up scattering out by mid morning then highs this afternoon will push a few degrees warmer.

245 AM Update:

This near term forecast is the first in a while where I have not had to add any chances of precipitation to anywhere in the forecast area. Upper level ridging has build in with water vapor imagery showing dry air advecting in aloft. With day time heating today, some of that dry air will mix down to the surface. Cloud cover this afternoon was lowered from what model guidance has as self destructive sunshine is less likely as deeper mixing will just mix in more dry air rather than lead to more cloud development. Some of the models like the NAM want to put in surface CAPE and a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon but looking at forecast soundings, it looks like the model is keeping the boundary layer a bit too moist. Still with dew points in the mid to upper 50s and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, some of the higher terrain like the Catskills could assist in sparking off a shower or two this afternoon but confidence was too low to add showers to the forecast.

Tonight, high pressure remains in place and with radiational cooling once again and it being post greenup, patchy valley fog will likely develop again in the river valleys.

Monday is looking even warmer as 500 mb heights continue to rise towards 580 dm. With ridging in place, a stout subsidence inversion around 700 mb will likely keep the region capped despite some surface based CAPE able to develop with the heat and humidity. Once again there is a small chance that terrain will help a couple showers or thunderstorms break through the cap but odds are low. High pressure and clear skies continue into Monday night.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A large ridge of high pressure still looks to be over the region Tuesday. A weak disturbance ahead of the front is coming into better focus, passing through central New York on Tuesday. However, moisture and lift are both limited so if any shower or thunderstorm it would be brief and isolated. The NBM has caught up to what what the modeled boundary layer temperatures would yield so confidence is increasing that highs will get well up into the 80's. Continued warm air advection should keep temperatures in the 60's for lows Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Continued warming trend through Wednesday given the warm air advection. Most locations should rise well into the 80's with a few locations close to 90 on Wednesday as the NBM has caught on to the overall pattern. With dewpoints only around 60, heat index values should not be much higher. Lows generally in the 60's at night.

A frontal boundary still looks to move in later Wednesday and Thursday to break down the ridge. Enough lift and moisture looks present for at least some scattered showers with the frontal passage. Instability during the afternoons surface CAPE is currently modeled to be around 1,000 J/KG each afternoon and evening so some thunderstorms will be possible as well. Still some timing differences with the operational models and ensemble guidance with the frontal timing. Continued to lean more toward the slower ECMWF suite at this time. Given the timing differences it is still to early to determine the potential for any strong to severe thunderstorms.

The front should clear the area Thursday night with high pressure building back into the region. Temperatures look to be knocked down a bit back into the 50's for lows and 70's for highs through Saturday.

AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Generally VFR level scatter clouds around this afternoon and early evening, before skies clear.

Tonight, clear skies will likely bring fog formation once again; developing after 03-06z Monday. ELM has the best chance at fog, being in valley, and it could be dense here. Went ahead and indicated a time of IFR/LIFR VSBYs here, especially from about 08z to 12z early Monday morning. For the rest of the TAF sites, during this 8-12z time period have indicated the potential for MVFR light fog/mist around the region. There remains a good deal of uncertainty in exactly where the fog will set up overnight into Monday morning, and just how low the VSBYs will go. Will the fog be confined to just the valleys, or more widespread like some of the guidance is indicating...again, not confident either way at this time. Will need to monitor trends in the observed conditions and updated model guidance to get a better feel for this. The nights are getting shorter, but there seems to still be enough cooling and time for some fog formation.

Any fog should burn off after 12-13z Monday morning, with a return to VFR conditions expected for the rest of the day.

Winds will be light and variable under 5 kts through the period.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Some showers possible late Wednesday through Thursday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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