Vineyard Haven, MA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vineyard Haven, MA

May 20, 2024 6:43 AM EDT (10:43 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:14 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM
Moonrise 5:19 PM   Moonset 3:36 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 405 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024

Today - NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds and ne 1 foot at 3 seconds. Patchy very light drizzle this morning.

Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds and ne 1 foot at 2 seconds.

Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds.

Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds.

Wed and Wed night - SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds.

Thu through Fri night - W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 foot at 7 seconds.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 405 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024

Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - High pres over coastal maine settles over the waters Mon and continues thru Wed. A cold front brings the risk for showers and Thunderstorms on Thurs. High pres then return to the waters for Friday into the memorial day weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vineyard Haven, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 200707 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 307 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS

Today is the cornerstone of a pattern change towards more mild conditions though clouds and cool temperatures will still hang across the Cape. Much milder conditions Tuesday with heat peaking on Wednesday. Frontal passage Thursday, with increased thunderstorm chances, will usher in more seasonable temperatures for the holiday weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

Today is the cornerstone of a pattern shift towards summer like conditions across southern New England with surface high pressure centered over southern NH/ME and mid level ridging continuing to build into southern New England. Greatest forecast challenge today will be cloud cover, and by proxy, high temperatures with high resolution guidance again struggling overnight to accurately depict clearing across wide swaths of the area. As of this writing, very little fog has developed across the region away from the coast while light drizzle continues to advect over SE MA and the Cape.

Most abundant sunshine will be across the CT River Valley where clear conditions developed overnight. While dry air moves in with force above 850mb today, and RH falls to as low as ~25% between 850- 300mb this afternoon, model soundings show the surface inversion/low level moisture driven by onshore flow will hold steady through at least mid morning across eastern MA/RI, with the NAM suggesting the inversion won't mix out until early afternoon. With high to our north, a gradual wind shift from NE to S/SW through late evening should kickstart clearing this afternoon. So, while gradual clearing is expected for portions of the CWA from Worcester, east, clouds will really struggle to mix out across the Cape/Islands/South Coast today where PWATs remain above 1.1". With a high degree of uncertainty in the cloud cover forecast, particularly for eastern MA/RI, there is potential for a bit of a bust in temperatures, particularly in eastern MA. Generally trended towards a middle of the road solution with highs around 80 across CT and western MA, in the low 70s across the coastal plain, and as cool as the upper 50s on Nantucket!, more clearing and deeper mixing will result in much warmer temperatures.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/

Patchy fog development is possible again tonight though developing SW winds around 5-10kt, and dewpoint depressions around 4F should preclude widespread fog across the interior. With that said, the same mechanism of SW flow should encourage some fog/reduced vsbys along the South Coast and Islands where both temps and dewpoints hover around 50F and SSTs are in the low to mid 50s.

With surface high still in place and mid level ridge growing stronger, guidance is still quite poor in diagnosing cloud cover for Tuesday, with several CAMs, like the HRRR, showing a mostly cloudy day. Not feeling particularly keen on the "cloudy all day" solutions with PWATs falling to as low as 0.7" and low RH above the mixed layer, but early morning fog/stratus, particularly along the south coast, may take a few hours to burn off. Decent boundary layer mixing with 850mb temperatures approaching 16C will support highs well into the 80s across much of the interior, though onshore flow across the south coast will keep temps much cooler there, in the 60s to perhaps 70s. Given SW flow, Boston MAY see their first 80F reading of the season, and while it's possible the ASOS may not hit 80F, the western suburbs of the city have a high likelihood of doing so.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Highlights:

* Peak of the midweek very warm weather is Wednesday - 80s highs with a few locations in the CT and Merrimack Valleys seeing a few 90 degree readings. Tolerable humidity levels.

* Cold front Thursday afternoon to early evening brings a reprieve to the warmth but also could fuel scattered t-storms.

* Drier and with cooler, more seasonable temperatures Friday into the Memorial Day Weekend.

Details:

Still looking at Wednesday as the warmest day of the anticipated midweek spell of very warm temperatures reminiscent of summer. 850 mb temps rising into the +14 to +16C range along with full mixing and southwest breezes should promote these very warm temperatures.
NBM probs continue to show moderate to high (60 to 90 percent) probs of temps reaching 90+ degrees in the CT and Merrimack Valleys, with lower (no greater than 30%) probs of 90+ high temps in central MA, northeast CT and portions of Metrowest. These are a bit higher than the prior 13z NBM cycle. The one thing that is a little peculiar in the NWP is that modeled dewpoints were shown to be in the lower to mid 60s across a good majority of the guidance; I don't think values this high are necessarily realistic given the well mixed PBL and adiabatic downsloping that should be taking place per model soundings. That's also a concern/source of uncertainty as we move into Thursday as well. Advertised highs upper 80s to low 90s in the CT and Merrimack Valleys - although those could be somewhat conservative - and the mid 80s for most of northern RI, central and eastern MA. Cooler readings near the south coast (upper 60s-mid 70s)
where SW flow will allow for a bit of a maritime breeze. Should be a pretty mild Wednesday evening too, mid 50s to lower 60s, but did note some of the guidance showing weakening convection moving in from eastern NY into our far western counties in MA later in the overnight. Left a slight chance PoP mention in the forecast for now for the eastern Berkshires but we'll have to see if this materializes in subsequent guidance.

A cold front then trudges eastward through Southern New England on Thursday. It seems as though in the 00z guidance that the front is about 6 hours slower than prior model cycles; that may allow for another very warm day with a slower timing, but also could allow for slightly more convective instability to help spark showers/t-storms along the front, particularly near and west of I-95. Similar to Wednesday, models are now forecasting dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s although those seem a bit high. If we can see dewpoints push into the lower 60s, we could see CAPE values around 800-1500 J/kg accompanied by deep-layer southwesterly shear magnitudes around 35 kt (stronger flow mainly to our north). This is really on the borderline for storms becoming strong to severe and doesn't really scream "severe storms", but is something we'll be needing to monitor in the coming days. Kept highs in the upper 60s/around 70 near the south coast, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s further inland.

For Friday, the cold front's southeastward passage further offshore could be delayed a bit as the front's orientation becomes nearly parallel to the 700-300 mb flow, which could keep clouds and showers around the south coast for part of the day. However high pressure is progged to ridge into much of New England, with ridging continuing into a good part of the Memorial Day Weekend. Temperatures Friday into the weekend trend cooler and more seasonable than midweek, with highs in the 70s (60s near the coast). Thus so far, weather conditions for Memorial Day Weekend seem favorable.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Through Today... Low to Moderate Confidence in Vsby

Forecast continues to be complex with conditions ranging anywhere from LIFR to VFR across the region. Away from the Cape and Islands, terminals generally MVFR to VFR but patchy fog through 12/13Z this morning may degrade conditions to LIFR before widespread MVFR (on the coast) to VFR (elsewhere)
develops late this afternoon, though, VFR may be delayed to as late as 18/20Z in places like Boston and Providence. On the Cape, IFR likely to persist for a good portion of the day, with a chance for MVFR very late this afternoon. Winds calm to slightly NE this morning will gradually swing around to the south, first across the CT River Valley around 16/18Z, and last for the Cape and Islands.

Monday night...Moderate confidence.

IFR to MVFR continues for the Cape and Islands, generally VFR across the interior except IFR where patchy fog.

Tuesday... Low cigs/vsby due to fog burn off quickly to VFR for all terminals. Winds from the SW will be strong enough to stave off a seabreeze.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF trends

MVFR to IFR this morning, MVFR occurring through early afternoon before clouds scatter out to VFR. VSBY/cig reductions possible again tonight. Winds NE this morning shifting to the south late this evening.

KBDL TAF...High Confidence

VFR outside of some patchy fog both this morning and tomorrow morning leading to brief periods of IFR. Winds calm becoming S/SE this afternoon and SE tomorrow.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance TSRA, slight chance SHRA.

Friday: VFR.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today... High confidence

Lows clouds/drizzle and patchy early morning fog with vsbys 1-3 miles, slowly burns off with improving conditions mid to late afternoon. High pressure over SNE results in light NE winds become east and then southeast late in the day.

Monday night...high confidence.

Ridge of high pressure crest over the waters, yielding light SE winds becoming SW. Patchy fog may limit vsby at times.

Tuesday... high confidence

AM fog will burn off to pleasant boating conditions. SW winds with seas less than 5 ft.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ254.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 14 mi34 min NNE 14G16 51°F 53°F30.0151°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi56 min 52°F 56°F30.02
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 22 mi56 min NNE 8G14 49°F 55°F30.02
NBGM3 28 mi56 min NE 8G11 52°F 30.04
44085 29 mi44 min 53°F 53°F2 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 29 mi44 min NNE 13G15 52°F 30.03
44090 33 mi44 min 51°F 52°F2 ft
CHTM3 36 mi56 min 50°F 53°F30.03
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi56 min 53°F 53°F30.04
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 43 mi56 min N 5.1G6 53°F 30.04
FRXM3 43 mi56 min 53°F 52°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 44 mi48 min 49°F3 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 45 mi56 min N 7G9.9 53°F 54°F30.03
PRUR1 46 mi56 min 53°F 52°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi59 min E 8 53°F 30.0452°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi56 min NE 7G11 53°F 30.06


Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMVY MARTHA'S VINEYARD,MA 6 sm50 minNNE 1010 smOvercast52°F52°F100%30.02
KFMH CAPE COD COAST GUARD AIR STATION,MA 19 sm47 minNE 102 smOvercast Mist 50°F50°F100%30.03
KHYA BARNSTABLE MUNIBOARDMAN/POLANDO FIELD,MA 23 sm47 minNNE 096 smOvercast Mist 48°F48°F100%30.01
KACK NANTUCKET MEMORIAL,MA 24 sm19 minNNE 17G223 smOvercast Mist 48°F48°F100%30.01
Link to 5 minute data for KMVY


Wind History from MVY
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Edgartown, Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts
   
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Edgartown
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Mon -- 03:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:08 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:58 AM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:20 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:11 PM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Edgartown, Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, Tide feet
12
am
1.7
1
am
1.3
2
am
0.8
3
am
0.4
4
am
0.2
5
am
0.3
6
am
0.5
7
am
0.7
8
am
1
9
am
1.4
10
am
1.7
11
am
1.8
12
pm
1.7
1
pm
1.4
2
pm
0.9
3
pm
0.5
4
pm
0.3
5
pm
0.3
6
pm
0.5
7
pm
0.8
8
pm
1.1
9
pm
1.5
10
pm
1.8
11
pm
2


Tide / Current for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)
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Woods Hole
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Mon -- 03:25 AM EDT     0.16 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:50 AM EDT     3.31 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:42 AM EDT     -3.25 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:36 PM EDT     0.13 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:10 PM EDT     3.41 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:43 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution), knots
12
am
-3.1
1
am
-2.6
2
am
-2
3
am
-1.1
4
am
1.5
5
am
2.5
6
am
3.1
7
am
3.3
8
am
2.9
9
am
1.6
10
am
-2.1
11
am
-3.1
12
pm
-3.2
1
pm
-2.8
2
pm
-2.2
3
pm
-1.4
4
pm
1.3
5
pm
2.4
6
pm
3.1
7
pm
3.4
8
pm
3.2
9
pm
2.3
10
pm
-1.4
11
pm
-2.9


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Boston, MA,




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