Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:49 PM Moonrise 5:09 PM   Moonset 3:25 AM

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LEZ144 Expires:202405200215;;496610 Fzus51 Kcle 191940 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 340 pm edt Sun may 19 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-200215- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 340 pm edt Sun may 19 2024
Tonight - East winds 10 knots or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of Thunderstorms with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 66 degrees, off cleveland 55 degrees, and off erie 51 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 200835 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 435 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will remain to the north of the area today as high pressure departs to the east. Low pressure will track northeast across the Plains Tuesday before pushing a cold front across the local area Wednesday as it tracks towards James Bay. High pressure will return for Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A muggy, summer-like weather pattern will persist during the near term period. There will be quite a bit of moist, unstable air across the area today, but not much forcing to work with for convective initiation beyond a lake breeze that will develop this afternoon. Widely scattered showers/storms may pulse up along this boundary this afternoon before dissipating with the loss of diurnal heating this evening. Similar to the last few days, steering flow will be relatively weak and there will be very little shear so expect any showers/storms to be slow-moving and somewhat disorganized. With that being said, thermodynamics support a small chance of sub-severe gusty winds and small hail in addition to locally heavy rainfall and potential for minor flooding due to training. Dry weather will return for Monday evening.

A shortwave will track west into the region early Tuesday morning as low pressure begins to deepen and lift across the Plains, which will allow PoPs to increase in western zones.
However, CAMs are still a bit inconsistent with the placement, timing, and overall chance of precipitation so capped PoPs at slight chance for the time being. Afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm chances associated with a stronger shortwave will likely rely on whether or not showers pan out Tuesday morning and if the atmosphere recovers/destabilizes from any convective debris. Have slight chance to chance PoPs for now, but wouldn't be surprised if PoPs ended up increasing as guidance becomes better aligned. As with typical summertime thunderstorms, there will be enough buoyancy and moisture for (likely sub-severe)
wind gusts and small hail in addition to locally heavy rainfall.
Storms should be slightly more progressive and perhaps a bit more widespread than previous days due to the enhanced lift from the shortwave.

Temperatures will be well above normal over the next couple of days. Instead of highs that are typically in the lower 70s this time of year, maximum temps will be in the mid to upper 80s across the majority of the area today and Tuesday with lower 90s possible west of the I-71 corridor today. It will also feel somewhat humid with dew points in the lower 60s. Tonight's lows will be in the 60s with the warmest lows in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees more likely in urban areas such as Toledo and Cleveland.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The short term forecast period will be active to say the least. For Tuesday night, a well organized severe episode will likely be ongoing across the Midwest and western Great Lakes region. Some form of this convection will continue toward the forecast area during the nighttime hours. There is uncertainty at this time on the quality of the convection as it approaches Northwest Ohio, as instability factors lean toward convection becoming more elevated and less problematic for severe potential. However, a strong low level jet will enter the region concurrent with the convection and storms could retain a bite to them and surface-based. Therefore, there is a Day 2 Marginal Risk for severe weather for Northwest Ohio for a residual strong to severe wind threat. However, due to low confidence on storm coverage into the area, the PoP in the forecast is relatively low.

For Wednesday, the flavor of the day appears to be typical of a summer severe weather setup, especially with a well above normal temperature air mass in place (80s+) with 60s dew points in the region. An occluding low pressure system will be across Lake Superior around daybreak on Wednesday and this system will push a cold front toward the forecast area. Ahead of the front, the initial air mass of the day may be disrupted by residual debris rain and clouds from the late Tuesday night complex. If these linger too long, they could take away somewhat from the total potential of the environment for the day. Toward afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will develop with the forcing of the front just west of the forecast area and move into the region. However, the total synoptic picture isn't totally aligned on Wednesday afternoon as the mid-level vort max is well displaced and just a tiny piece of the upper jet will support the convection across the region compared to the broader jet aloft to areas southwest. Therefore, there will be coverage issues with storms on Wednesday and there will be more of a scattered flavor to storms vs. being widespread and have just 40-60% PoPs.
There is still some low level jet energy across the region that will increase the shear across the region and enhance the severe organization potential. In the end, there will be some strong to severe storms in the region and with the high instability and steep lapse rates, strong wind and large hail will be the favored threats.
Much of the area is delineated in a Day 3 Slight Risk for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center.

For Thursday and Thursday night, PoP chances will decrease during the day on Thursday as the cold front pushes southeast across the forecast area and high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will return closer to normal with this cooler air mass.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The long term forecast period is trending more uncertain for the weekend weather. A strong upper ridge will be over the region with high pressure at surface on Friday. However, an upper trough will move through the Ohio Valley and undercut the upper ridge. This feature may advance a warm front north into the forecast area and allow for rain chances to return. If this occurs, this may allow the forecast area to be in a more progressive region of the general weather pattern, where another upper trough and low pressure system will enter on Saturday and with another upper trough to the northwest on Saturday night. Therefore, have chance PoPs through the weekend. However, if the upper ridge amplifies enough, it could set up a blocking pattern of sorts and keep the better rain chances south for a time this weekend. In the end, will go with a forecast with temperatures slightly above normal and slight to mid chance PoPs through the period.

AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
VFR is expected for the TAF period. There may be a brief period of MVFR with patchy fog at KTOL during the early morning hours, but any fog should largely remain where the heaviest rain fell earlier this evening. A few showers/storms may develop along the lake breeze Monday afternoon, which could move within the vicinity of KCLE/KTOL. Non-VFR visibilities are possible if any showers/storms manage to move directly over a terminal.

Winds will be light and variable tonight before becoming southwesterly and increasing to 5 to 10 knots Monday afternoon.
Wind direction will likely be more variable at KCLE/KERI due to the lake breeze.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected outside of any thunderstorms.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon hours Monday and Tuesday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are more likely Wednesday afternoon and evening.

MARINE
A warm front will move north of the lake today with a weak gradient remaining across the region. Therefore, will start with south to southeast winds for a large portion of the lake, but winds in the nearshore this afternoon could become onshore with a lake breeze developing across the region. A weak low will pass north of the lake tonight and allow for south to southwest flow to return to the basin. A low pressure system will develop over the Midwest on Tuesday and the pressure gradient will increase across the lake on Tuesday night into Wednesday and winds will strengthen in response.
The southwest flow on Wednesday afternoon could mix pretty well and wind strength could be close to needing a Small Craft Advisory headline. A cold front will extend across the lake on Wednesday night and winds will shift to the west and then north as high pressure builds over the lake. The surface high will move east of the lake on Friday and northeast flow will be favored and onshore flow could be enhanced with a lake breeze.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ010>014- 020>022-089.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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