Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 5:28 PM   Moonset 3:42 AM

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LMZ046 Expires:202405200815;;514751 Fzus53 Kiwx 200213 Nshiwx
nearshore marine forecast national weather service northern indiana 1013 pm edt Sun may 19 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
lmz043-046-200815- new buffalo mi to st joseph mi-michigan city in to new buffalo mi- 1013 pm edt Sun may 19 2024
Overnight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Monday night - South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 57 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 200519 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 119 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms still appear possible late Tuesday night and possibly again Wednesday afternoon.
Both of these periods are marked by low confidence in severe weather.

- Chance of storms for Monday and Monday night. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but an isolated storm may have a hail or wind threat.

- Warm temperatures in the 80s through Tuesday. 70 degree temperatures take over for the late week.

- Lull in precip chances for Thursday, but additional chances of showers and thunderstorms next weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

A cold front, divorced from any mid level vorticity, stalls just to our northwest today. A moisture axis glides into the forecast area and short term guidance indicates low level convergence will be present in an environment with strong low level lapse rates and CAPE values exceeding 2500 J/kg. Forecast soundings indicate there's quite a bit of dry air below 850 and above 700 mb that might make it a little bit more difficult to form storms, but should they overcome it say with a few outflow boundaries, DCAPE values exceed 900 to 1000 J/kg making downbursts possible. Additionally, the low level dryness and mid level lapse rates between 6.5 and 7 C/km could make hail a possibility with limited melting in the dry low level layer.
PWATs do actually exceed climatology by 1 SD making locally heavy rain possible with the 60F degree dew points and 10C 850 mb dew points. Slow storm motions also contribute to the heavy rain possibility, which could be exacerbated over a more urban area. There is also some indication that these storms continue beyond sunset with the 500 to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE remaining along with 6.5 C/km mid level lapse rates and as a front lifts northward into MI Monday morning.

Monday morning, the area is once again devoid of forcing, but we'll be watching for the arrival of a likely convectively enhanced shortwave from the Central Plains to arrive in the evening. Short range guidance indicates this could die on our doorstep, which could happen as the shortwave appears to move towards Lower Michigan, but lingering diurnally enhanced instability may be able to help before sunset. Forecast soundings look a little bit similar to today's soundings, but CAPE appears weaker. Similar DCAPE and mid level lapse rate magnitudes contribute to wind and hail potential, but shear appears more limited providing some ceiling for strong to severe potential. SPC's marginal risk of severe weather appears warranted for Monday, but would want a little bit more shear and turning in the low levels to make a tornado threat a little bit more believable.

With some remnant shortwaves nearby Tuesday, we may start with some clouds around, but models indicate some clearing may be possible during the afternoon allowing models to generate 1500 J/kg of CAPE.
The low level jet is around Tuesday, which may help to remove cloudiness, but it won't be strong enough for severe storms until later Tuesday night. By that point, 500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 6 to 6.5 C/km mid level lapse rates will be available, with shear finally around after midnight. Effective helicity values do surpass 200 m2/s2 during this time as well, but modeled surface LCLs appear too high for a tornado unless those are incorrect. DCAPE doesn't appear to stay as high overnight, but gusty to damaging winds and some hail still appear possible. SPC's slight risk appears warranted for Tuesday into 12z Wednesday. Then, with the cold front bisecting the area into east and west halves, the eastern area has the greatest chance to see afternoon thunderstorms refire, Wednesday afternoon, but this will depend on the eventual placement of the front. Too far east and storms develop east of our area. Storms are modeled to have 1500 J/kg of CAPE to tap into along with some shear and 6 to 6.5 C/km mid level lapse rates. Helicity appears to be weaker for this setup, though. SPC's slight risk also appears warranted for Wednesday afternoon.

A break in the action is indicated for Thursday as surface high pressure moves in behind the front. There is a chance the dry weather continues for Friday as well with an upper low in southeast Canada and the strength of a shortwave through the Tennessee Valley likely determining how far north the precip shield gets. There is a chance our area could get clipped Friday from that low to our south.

Our next chance for showers and perhaps thunderstorms appears to be Saturday night/Sunday as an upper low in south-central Canada drags a cold front through the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 117 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the overnight hours and through the afternoon. The only change made to the TAFs was to slightly adjust wind direction/speeds. A strong upper level shortwave will move through the area this evening after 21Z and may spark a few scattered showers. Chances for impacts are too low to mention in the TAF at this time but a mention of a shower or storm may be needed at KFWA and KSBN in later TAF forecasts, should confidence increase.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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