Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 9:03 PM Moonrise 4:23 PM   Moonset 3:22 AM

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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi-michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 1038 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
This afternoon - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tonight - North winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly Sunny. Slight chance for Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 57 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 191643 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1243 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures in the 80s through Tuesday. 70 degree temperatures take over for the late week.

- Chance of storms for Monday and Monday night. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but an isolated storm may have a hail threat.

- Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms still appear possible late Tuesday night and possibly again on Wednesday. Both of these periods are marked by low confidence in severe weather.

- Lull in precip chances for Thursday, but additional chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday into next weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

A strong upper vort max lifting across northern Great Lakes/southwest Ontario will continue to allow a weak surface trough to settle across the southern Great Lakes region this afternoon. As this trough becomes more divorced from stronger forcing aloft, it will slow down across the local area today and may serve as a focus for isolated-scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A modest low level moisture axis is shifting across the local area this morning, and will settle across the Ohio River Valley this afternoon. Near term guidance is indicating some differences in mixing depths and low level moisture magnitude this afternoon which will have a large effect on convective temperatures. Have largely kept idea from previous forecast intact with a band of 20-30 PoPs along expected position of this weak sfc trough this afternoon.
Steering flow will continue to be weak today with flow up to 500 mb of less than 20 knots. Any isolated stronger showers or storms could produce a highly localized heavier rain amount along with a few sub-severe wind gusts of 30+ mph given large low level dew point depressions and steep low level lapse rates.
Depending on actual instability magnitudes this afternoon and some potential outflow interactions, isolated showers could persist into this evening before diminishing late evening/early overnight hours. The much above normal temperatures will continue today as some weak low level warm advection accompanying the aforementioned sfc trough axis should add a degree or two on from yesterday's highs with possible exception for areas receiving any isolated/scattered showers and storms this afternoon and better convective cloud cover.

For Monday into early Tuesday morning, attention will turn to an upper level short wave expected to emanate from Central Plains convection today. Predictability in exact strength and track of this short wave is on the low side, given upstream convective evolution today will go a long way in modulating this disturbance. A zone of stronger southerlies downstream of this disturbance will allow better low level moisture transport to shift across Mid MS Rvr Valley midday Monday and likely into the western Great Lakes/Lower Michigan by Monday night. Some steeper mid level lapse rates should also advect into the region Monday/Monday night preceding this wave.
Have maintained some broadbrush chance PoPs particularly across western/northern portions of the forecast area given expected track of convectively enhanced vort max. While shear profiles should not be supportive of highly organized convection, cannot rule out potential of some hail Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning with any stronger showers and thunderstorms. Very warm conditions will continue Monday and Tuesday, with better low level mixing also aiding in realizing high temps into the mid 80s to locally 90.

The later Tuesday period is still likely the main time period of concern for this forecast as stronger upper level wave ejects northeast out of Baja of California region and acquires slight negative tilt across the Upper Midwest by Tuesday evening. The GFS remains a fast outlier compared to bulk of other guidance and a little more aggressive in dampening Great Lakes upper ridging. This could allow band of showers and thunderstorms to reach far western areas by late evening Tuesday with a severe potential. However, guidance consensus is to maintain stronger initial upper ridging across the Great Lakes with a more delayed arrival of pre-frontal forcing. This would result in a likely decaying line of storms progressing across western areas late Tuesday night. The challenge in this scenario will be similar to Monday's system in that the evolution of Central Plains into Upper Midwest convection late Monday night into early Tuesday will impact mid/upper height structure. Will still support consensus solution in greater severe potential impacting areas across Mid Ms Rvr Valley late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with some low-confidence risk of severe storms possibly affecting far western areas overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. Have also continued trend in lowering PoPs late Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday evening as a cap may temporarily affect the area until late night.

Secondary upper wave digging across central CONUS will allow cold front to progress across the area on Wednesday, but how this secondary wave phases or not phases with initial upper PV anomaly should dictate frontal progression. It does appear the synoptic setup should favor a more veered low level flow by Wednesday.
Instability remains somewhat of a wildcard on Wednesday, but some fairly steep mid level lapse rates should yield some moderate afternoon instability across the southeast depending on low level temp/dew point trends. Depending on how things play out, some hail/wind threat could accompany storms with cold frontal progression Wednesday, but this is a highly conditional and low confidence scenario at this time.

Cooler conditions settle in for late work week, with a lull in precip chances expected Thursday into early Friday. Predictability with large scale pattern is somewhat low for Friday into early next week, but some signal exists for another fropa some time next weekend with additional precip chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

A stalled/weak front, located between the terminals, should become the focus for widely scattered convection later this afternoon into this evening. This activity should mainly remain south of KSBN while being in the vicinity of KFWA during this time. A brief vis restriction and wind gust up to 30 mph possible with any storms. VFR otherwise through the period.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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