Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:54 PM Moonrise 5:14 PM   Moonset 3:26 AM

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LCZ423 634 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 633 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots and small hail. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from the ambassador bridge to 6 nm west of elizabeth park marina to 16 nm west of luna pier, moving east at 15 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Elizabeth park marina, wyandotte, grosse ile, belle isle, and gibraltar around 640 pm edt. Lake erie metropark harbor around 645 pm edt. Detroit river light, woodland beach, estral beach, and detroit beach around 655 pm edt. Stony point around 700 pm edt. Monroe harbor around 705 pm edt. Bolles harbor of refuge and luna pier around 710 pm edt. North cape around 735 pm edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
these strong Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when these strong Thunderstorms reaches the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before these strong Thunderstorms arrives.
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lat - .lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4225 8318 4228 8315 4236 8303 4239 8295 4238 8291 4235 8293 4232 8306 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 200929 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 529 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and muggy conditions continue for the next several days.

- Showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon with highest confidence for broader coverage north of I-69.

- Brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, and small hail are the main concerns today, although an isolated storm could approach severe wind or hail thresholds.

- Additional storms are possible Tuesday afternoon followed by a line of strong to severe storms late Tuesday night which poses the greatest threat for 50+ mph gusts.

- One more chance for showers/storms Wednesday before a cooler and less humid airmass arrives for the rest of the workweek.

AVIATION

VFR conditions continue into the afternoon, outside of a chance for patchy mvfr fog across the Metro terminals. Scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible from the afternoon hours into the evening as a warm front moves in, soon followed by an upper-level wave. The better coverage is expected across KFNT into KMBS, however, all locations will be susceptible to thunderstorm development.

There is high confidence that thunderstorms will develop across SE MI, however, exact timing and location of development remains very low. Storms will have the potential to become strong to severe, capable of highly localized gusts to 45-50 knots, hail, and heavy downpours. Additional showers with embedded thunderstorms will be possible overnight, but confidence in the timing and location also remains low.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon into Monday evening between 18Z-02Z. While confidence remains low regarding specific timing and coverage of thunderstorms today, any storms observed will be capable of gusty winds, hail and very heavy downpours. Storm motion will be west to east at 30 mph.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms between 18Z - 02Z Tues, with the most probable window for thunderstorms centered between 19Z - 23Z.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 422 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

DISCUSSION...

Shortwave trough shearing off the southern stream jet and coincident with an MCV over Missouri will continue to progress/decay northeastward this morning. The convectively augmented wave takes aim at northern Lake Michigan while another day of anomalous warmth bears down on Southeast Michigan. In the absence of airmass modification, expect the combination of afternoon dewpoints in the low-mid 60s and high temperatures the mid-upper 80s to result in SBCAPE values of 1750-2250 J/kg, mirroring the previous day's SPC mesoanalysis data. While the low-shear/high-CAPE setup drives the prevailing forecast narrative, some enhancement to shear profiles arrives later in the day north of I-69 with the approach of the aforementioned remnant wave. Although surface-based convective storms are possible across the entire forecast area this afternoon and evening, locations along/north of M-46 are favored for enhanced storms given proximity to improved shear profiles and positioning along the PWAT gradient. This offers the best chance for severe- adjacent cells. Localized outflow boundaries intersecting pockets of higher instability may suffice in the production of hail approaching 1 inch in diameter or gusts to 50 mph. Uncertainty exists regarding the persistence of nocturnal convective activity as elevated instability lingers until approximately midnight.

Interfacing of the polar and subtropical jets amplifies a speed max over the central Plains Tuesday. This drives a deepening surface low into southern Minnesota while the southerly flow within its broad cyclonic shield pushes the resident surface boundary northward across the MI/OH border. Dewpoints respond to the ThetaE plume with most locations crossing into the mid-60s, but forecast soundings indicate a slightly capped thermodynamic structure given the warm frontal boundary. Still expect some degree of afternoon convection as shear vectors improve with ample MUCAPE.

Main event looks to arrive late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the system's cold front races through Lower Michigan. Potential exists for an organized QLCS to accelerate through the area ahead of the front which poses a strong to severe wind threat. Latest SPC SWODY2 includes a combination of Marginal (1/5) to Slight (2/5) Risk for isolated to scattered severe events.

The upper level pattern undergoes major adjustments Wednesday as an energetic low drops into the Pacific Northwest triggering down stream ridge amplification. An orphaned upper low parked over Saskatchewan dampens the height rises, but it still unlocks the stalled eastern Plains jet axis. One more dose of CVA triggers a secondary convection response Wednesday before the more potent cold front clears through Wednesday night. Post-frontal conditions should be noticeably drier and cooler for the latter portion of the workweek as temperatures and dewpoints drop by roughly 10F and 15F, respectively.

MARINE...

Weak winds this morning organize predominantly out of the southeast today as a warm front lifts across the region in response to low pressure tracking in from the Midwest. This system brings an increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms this evening into tonight, especially across northern/central Lake Huron closer to where the center of the low is forecast to track overnight.
Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria, though locally higher winds and waves will be possible within any thunderstorms. A stronger low develops over the Plains on Tuesday, lifting into western Lake Superior on Wednesday. Winds increase out of the south to 20 to 30 knots ahead of the associated cold front Wednesday, then veer to the west Wednesday night into Thursday while remaining gusty to around 25 knots. Less humid air settles in for the late week as high pressure builds in.

CLIMATE...

Here are the record high temperatures for May 20th through May 22nd:

May 20th: Detroit 91 (set in 1977)
Flint 92 (set in 1934)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 93 (set in 1977)

May 21st: Detroit 92 (set in 1977)
Flint 93 (set in 1921)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 94 (set in 1977)

May 22nd: Detroit 90 (set in 1994)
Flint 91 (set in 1934)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 89 (set in 1992)

Here are the record high low temperatures for May 20th through May 22nd:

May 20th: Detroit 68 (set in 1934)
Flint 65 (set in 1939)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 70 (set in 1975)

May 21st: Detroit 71 (set in 2013)
Flint 67 (set in 1934)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 66 (set in 2021)

May 22nd: Detroit 67 (set in 1941)
Flint 65 (set in 1977)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 68 (set in 1977)

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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