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LEZ041 Expires:202405192115;;486735 Fzus51 Kbuf 191600 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1200 pm edt Sun may 19 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-192115- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 1200 pm edt Sun may 19 2024
This afternoon - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Light and variable winds. Areas of fog. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Light and variable winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots. Areas of fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - South winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 191816 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 216 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure across our region will generally keep fair dry weather in place through at least the beginning of the new work week. More notable will be the summer like heat that we can look forward to, as the mercury in most areas will climb WELL into the 80s for the Monday through Wednesday timeframe.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Amplifying mid and upper level ridge overhead will provide mainly dry weather today. There will be an outside chance for some diurnally driven scattered showers and possibly an isolated rumble of thunder across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region with a lingering weak surface convergent boundary in place there. High temperatures should climb into the mid to upper 70s, some 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

High pressure will provide dry weather tonight. Although low level moisture looks to be a bit less tonight, there may still be enough to produce some areas of fog again overnight, mainly south of Lake Ontario. However, it is not expected to be as widespread or dense as last night. Another mild night with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Heading into Monday night in the upper levels of the atmosphere, a large trough will be spread across the Rockies, while a ridge will span across the eastern half of the United States. Meanwhile, within the trough to the west, a shortwave trough will be in the midst passing east across the Upper Great Lakes. Translating this pattern down to the surface, the longwave trough aloft to the west will support a surface low over the Central Plains with a cold front to extend southward across the rest of the Plains, where it will gradually traverse northeast throughout the first half of the week.
Additionally, the shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes Monday night will support a surface low over northern Canada, placing its weakening frontal boundary to the north of the region Monday night through Tuesday, as surface high pressure elongated along the Northeast's Atlantic coastline remains strong to support primarily dry warm weather. Given the surface pattern, a southeasterly breeze Tuesday will support temperatures in the low to mid 80s with a few locations across the southern Genesee Valley reaching 90.

As the surface low passes northeast across the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday, an approaching cold front will support showers and thunderstorms to pass across the area from west to east.
Speaking of thunderstorms, provided the favorable timing some storms may have the potential of becoming well developed, as there will be plenty of instability with CAPE values surge towards 2500-3000 J/kg and lapse rates reach upwards of 8C/km, along with shear values of +150 m^2/s^2. Showers and thunderstorms will then continue into Wednesday night as the cold front passes across the area. Otherwise expect another warm day Wednesday with highs surging into the low to mid 80s across the higher terrain and the mid to upper 80s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The cold front should be in the process of exiting the region or just to our east by Thursday morning. There may still be some showers that linger behind the front on Thursday but should be fairly limited coverage wise
Otherwise
it will be cooler Thursday with highs in the low-mid 70s.

A secondary cold front is advertised to cross the region late Thursday night or even early Friday which will deliver a second shot of cooler air to the eastern Great Lakes
That said
the main challenge will be how much cooler with H850 temperatures potentially down to +4C to +7C. Guidance still shows anywhere from low-mid 60s to low-mid 70s. Will lean on NBM guidance at this point which is right in the middle with upper 60s to around 70F for daytime highs on Friday. The cooler airmass rapidly modifies over the weekend with a warming trend taking place across the region.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions expected for this afternoon with sct-bkn030-050 inland from the lakes. There may be a stray shower or rumble of thunder toward the upper Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region during the afternoon, but confidence in this is low.

Widespread VFR through the first half of tonight. There will be the possibility for some fog once again second half of tonight, however it is not expected to be as widespread or dense as last night.

Outlook...
Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
A highly saturated airmass and weak flow will continue across the lower Great Lakes allowing for some patchy fog and stratus to remain over the lower Great lakes this afternoon, especially Lake Ontario.
Conditions have however improved enough on Lake Ontario to drop the dense fog advisory there.

The same airmass will remain over the lower Great Lakes tonight into Monday morning which may allow for more dense fog to develop. The greatest chance of this looks to be across Lake Ontario.

Otherwise, light winds with minimal wave action expected on the Lakes through Monday.

South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front through the Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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