Sunrise 5:22 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 4:29 PM   Moonset 3:26 AM

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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cdt Sun May 19 2024
Rest of today - North wind 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Tonight - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering south early in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 1 foot. Monday - Southeast wind 5 to 15 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then veering south early in the afternoon becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot. Monday night - South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning, then backing south early in the morning. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.

LMZ600
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FXUS63 KMKX 191519 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1019 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled Monday and Tuesday with several rounds of rain/storms.

- Increased risk for strong/severe storms Tuesday and Tuesday evening.

UPDATE
Issued 1006 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

No major changes to the going forecast for today as high pressure will support quiet conditions. High clouds will generally spread overhead with time owing to blow off from an area of showers and storms over the Missouri River Valley.

We're keeping an eye on the Monday and Tuesday severe weather threat and we should have an update with the afternoon forecast.

CMiller

SHORT TERM
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Today through Tuesday night:

Another warm day in store for southern Wisconsin. Temperatures will be a little cooler than the previous day with high temperatures expected to climb into the low 80s. This is in part due to some weak cold air advection behind the cold front.
However, based on guidance leaned more toward the bias corrected again to increase temps bringing 80s into more areas of southern Wisconsin than previous runs. The best chance for temps near 85 will be across far southern Wisconsin with cooler temperatures as you head north. Temperatures early this morning remain high with many urban heat islands still in the 70s. More rural areas are finally falling into the mid 60s. This is the main reason for the change of increasing beyond guidance. 925mb temperatures will be warm again near 20 and the surface temps overnight are elevated. This does leave a small window for temperatures to slightly overperform today.

Tonight into Monday the chance for rain and a few thunderstorms returns. A low pressure system will advect east from the central/northern plains. Tonight the main forcing for any rain/storms will the be the strong low level jet moving into the state. The low level jet doesn't look to make an appearance in southern Wisconsin until after midnight. As the upper level shortwave pivots into the state Monday, there will be additional chances for shower and storms. Some capping could inhibit convection initiation initially in the afternoon and early evening. There is a potential that if the shortwave moves through quickly that the evening remains mostly dry as the synoptic support will be gone. Overall the best potential for showers and storms will be late tonight through Monday morning.
There is a potential for some stronger to severe storms with the main concern being hail given the good mid level lapse rates.
Any storms that towers up quickly could provide an isolated wind threat.

Tuesday brings the next chance for rain and storms as the next upper level shortwave moves through the state. In comparison to Monday, Tuesday's system looks to be more robust. This would be the best chance for strong to severe weather out of the two days. Guidance is overall a bit of a mess with this system which leads to a more complex forecast. The GFS seems to be the biggest of the outliers with the low pressure system moving faster and further east/north than the other guidance. This has resulted in storms firing along the warm front as it progresses northward during the morning/afternoon as there will be synoptic support. In comparison, other guidance seem to be slower with the system movement. Which allows the warm front to move in and limits the amount of rain in the morning/afternoon hours, even leaving portions of the forecast area completely dry when considering ensemble guidance. This slower progression could lead to greater surface heating and instability for when the cold front moves through in the evening. The cold front will be the main driver for our severe potential. All storm modes will be possible with the main hazard concerns being winds and tornadoes. Tornadic potential at this point leans toward the short-lived quick spin up type.

Tuesday's biggest issues will be the convective potential along the warm front in the morning/early afternoon. If showers and storms start to develop early then the instability may be lacking when the cold front begins to move through in the evening leading to the severe threat being undercut.

Patterson

LONG TERM
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Wednesday through Saturday:

The cold front will be clear of southern WI by Wednesday morning, per the majority of models and ensembles. The GFS tries to delay the front through our area until later Wed and sneaks in a shortwave trough along it to bring in additional precip chances, but this is an outlier, even from most of the GFS ensemble. I kept a slight chance (20%) of showers in our north toward central WI due to the potential for strato-cu showers with any wrap-around precip from the exiting upper low. Otherwise, expect gusty westerly winds and cooler temperatures around 70.

Thursday through Saturday high temps will also be in the lower to mid 70s, with lows in the lower 50s, much more seasonal for this time of year. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive Friday afternoon or night to kick off Memorial Day Weekend. This is associated with an upper low tracking across southern Canada. As the case has been lately, the GFS goes crazy with the QPF and also brings the front through WI earlier than the ECMWF (by at least 12 hours). Given forecast model trends and biases, I would not be surprised if Friday-Fri nt ends up dry.

Regardless of having chances for showers and storms all weekend in the forecast, it looks like we will have one front with the potential for storms to deal with over this holiday weekend.
Overall, most of the weekend looks dry and just barely on the warmer side of normal.

Cronce

AVIATION
Issued 1010 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Conditions should remain VFR with no vis restrictions and BKN250 building in through this afternoon. Winds will be light and variable and will grow easterly this afternoon as a lake breeze pushes in land. Clouds bases will generally remain VFR overnight but should begin to lower as shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the early morning hours. By daybreak on Monday, MVFR should move in from KMSN and points west amid breezy southerlies to 15 knots.

CMiller

MARINE
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

A cold front is passing over the lake early this morning, locations east of the front will continue to have southwest winds while those behind the front will have northerly winds. As high pressure moves quickly through the Great Lakes Region today, light and variable winds will be expected. Ahead of an approaching low pressure system, winds will shift to southerly and become breezy. The breezy southerly winds are expected through Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed during this time.

Patterson

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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