Sunrise 5:09 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 5:23 PM   Moonset 3:34 AM

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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 324 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Today - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se this afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 8 seconds. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 8 seconds. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 9 seconds. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 9 seconds and S 3 ft at 4 seconds. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 3 ft at 9 seconds. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds. Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Fri - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ100 324 Am Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure gradually builds along the eastern seaboard through the middle of the week a cold front then approaches and passes through on Thursday. High pressure builds in from the north into the the weekend.

FXUS61 KGYX 200750 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 350 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Surface high pressure moves in today and will clear things out this afternoon and then anchor itself just offshore allowing for some seasonably warm temperatures. There's a chance for some thunderstorms in the mountains late Tuesday into Tuesday night, with a better chance for showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches. An upper level trough will keep scattered showers over the region Friday. High pressure builds in from north over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Sfc high shifts offshore during today as 500 mb ridging shifts into more zonal flow by later in the day. This will allow sfc flow to become more SW as flow aloft shift to the W. The stratus S and E of the mtns will begin to erode from inland first this morning, and eventually do so at the coast, but that may not be until midday or so. Also, the onshore flow near the coast will likely never shift to SSW, as it does this afternoon inland.
Ultimately this will lead to a fairly wide differential in temps between the coast and inland areas, especially the CT valley where highs will reach into the upper 70s today, while inland areas S and E of the mtns should get to the low to mid 70s, and the coast will likely remain in the 60s today.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Should stay mainly clear away from the coast through the night , and with light winds this will allow temps to fall into the low to mid 50s across much of the area, although the coast will be the coolest, as it will never get out of the marine lyr, and lows will fall to around 50. Another round of low coastal stratus is possible again late tonight, although should be limited to closer and the coast, and some models only bring into the mid-coast overnight.

On Tuesday, we line up pretty good with W flow aloft and SW flow near the sfc, and this will advect some warm mid level air into the CWA with 850 mb temps pushing 15C by the afternoon. This should be enough to push temps to 80-85 across much of the area away from the coast. Still we are likely to see see the flow shift to the S along the coast which will limit highs to 65-70 along the mid coast and 70-75 along the N-S oriented coast S of Casco Bay. There is a remnant MCS that will be across S Quebec late in the day. 12Z model runs tend to keep this out of the CWA until Tue evening, but may see some convection develop ahead of it the far N late in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Overview... A building ridge along the Eastern Seaboard brings very warm conditions for much of the week, peaking midweek.
Residual convection riding around the ridge brings a few chances for showers and storms over several days, with the greatest chance on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the north.
Relatively cooler air returns by late in the week and the weekend.

Details...

Wednesday looks to be the peak of the heat, with temps warming into the low 90s across much of southern and western NH, and 80s elsewhere. Even the southern coastlines warm into the 80s with southwesterly flow, while the MidCoast warms into the 70s. As mentioned, there's a little less certainty across the north on high temps where leftover morning convection could limit how high temps rise. Scattered afternoon showers and storms are also likely across northern areas Wednesday afternoon. There will be another deteriorating MCS rounding the ridge again Wednesday night, but similar to the previous night's it's unclear at this point how robust this system will be by the time it reaches New England.

Thursday remains warm, but with a downward trend in temps underway. A cold front moves through during the daytime, with some showers and storms accompanying it, especially across the higher terrain. Thursday likely ends up be the warmest day for the MidCoast, with winds turning westerly in the afternoon and warming temps into the upper 70s to near 80. 80s are expected elsewhere, with one more day in the upper 80s across southern NH.

Behind the cold front, temps still look fairly warm downwind of the mountains on Friday. Temps warm into the 70s in most spots, with highs near 80 across southern NH. The mountains likely see more cloud cover and get deeper into the cooler airmass, keeping highs in the 60s.

Right now the weekend looks cooler as high pressure noses in from the north, but the warmth won't be far off to the south.
The high is not overly strong, and has been trending a bit weaker since yesterday. Should this trend continue, then the weekend would likely end up warmer with highs in the 70s, rather than the 60s. This forecast follows closer to that trend, but acknowledges that we could end up with a boundary of airmasses within the CWA This is one more item to monitor over the coming days.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Short Term...We haven't really seen the LIFR cigs yet at most terminals and even IFR is more here and there at this hour.
There’s still a possibility of some LIFR around daybreak, but overall IFR looks to be the rule. Inland terminals should improve to VFR with a few hours of sunrise, while coastal terminals and KAUG will not break until around midday. Otherwise VFR expected into early this evening. Tonight looks better with any possibility of coastal stratus and/or fog limited to coastal terminals, and even this may only occur at KRKD, based on some models. Whatever does form, will be quicker to dissipate Tue morning.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected at most terminals Tuesday night through Thursday. Some coastal fog is possible at times at RKD Wednesday and Thursday. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms bring brief restrictions Tuesday through Thursday across northern terminals, with a lesser chance of showers and storms elsewhere. VFR conditions likely return by next weekend.

MARINE
Short Term...Seas near 5 ft should gradually drop through today, more in the 1-2 ft range by this evening. Winds are light through tonight, but will pick up from the SW on Tuesday, although should stay below SCA levels.

Long Term...High pressure builds along the Eastern Seaboard this week, bringing increasing south to southwesterly flow.
Areas of dense marine fog are possible by midweek. Some SCA conditions are possible by Thursday with increasing southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. High pressure then builds across the waters going into the weekend.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Kennebunkport
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Mon -- 03:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:05 AM EDT     1.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:15 AM EDT     7.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:12 PM EDT     1.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
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Mon -- 02:01 AM EDT     -1.57 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:55 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:36 AM EDT     0.71 knots Max Flood
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Mon -- 02:07 PM EDT     -1.54 knots Max Ebb
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Mon -- 07:57 PM EDT     1.05 knots Max Flood
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Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
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