Sunrise 5:34 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 4:48 PM   Moonset 2:59 AM

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LOZ044 Expires:202405201515;;530173 Fzus51 Kbuf 200832 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 432 am edt Mon may 20 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-201515- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 432 am edt Mon may 20 2024
Today - Southwest winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. Patchy fog this morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 200917 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 517 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Summer-like warmth today through mid-week with a chance of a shower or isolated thunderstorm well inland form the lakes. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive Wednesday into Thursday with the arrival of a cold front. Dry and cooler Thursday night through Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Some patchy fog in spots will dissipate this morning.

Otherwise...summer-like warmth starts today. The mid-level ridge and sfc high will slide east to the coast. Still looking like most locales will stay dry but a shower or storm will still be possible on lake breeze boundary during peak heating. Temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees above normal with most highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Dry weather to continue for all locales tonight. Mild night with lows found in the upper 50s to low 60s.

A convectively enhanced shortwave cutting through the mid-level ridge may introduce a shower or thunderstorm by Tuesday morning.
After that...this feature may also help to induce a few more storms inland from the lakes in the afternoon during peak heating.

Otherwise...another unseasonably mild day with mercury readings firmly in the 80s. We might even see a few 90F in the Genesee Valley.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
One last true summer-like day on tap Wednesday before a cold front sweeps across the area later Wednesday night into Thursday morning knocking temperatures back near normal on Thursday, from daytime highs on Wednesday that will peak some 15 to 20 degrees above average.

A remnant convective shortwave will pass by to our north Tuesday night with associated activity expected to remain to our north, while any lingering diurnally driven showers/isolated storms across the interior Southern Tier/Finger Lakes quickly dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Meanwhile, the surface cold front that is expected to cross western and northcentral NY later in the period will be pressing east across Lake Michigan overnight, while its associated low pressure system pulls northward across the Arrowhead of Minnesota. It will be a very warm night with overnight lows averaging in the mid 60s.

First half of Wednesday should be mainly dry before a prefrontal trough in advance of the main cold front brings the likelihood for showers and storms Wednesday afternoon and evening as it moves across the region. This timeframe will be the best shot at our area seeing a few stronger storms. Favorable timing will lend to plenty of instability and there will be ample moisture to work with. One factor that may hinder severe weather chances is the lack of stronger wind fields aloft, as the better bulk shear at this time looks like it may come into play a bit too late. That said, with the robust available instability and deep moisture available, definitely can't rule some gusty winds with a few of the stronger storms. SPC's latest Day 3 Outlook has placed our area in a Marginal Risk at this time. Will keep a mention in the HWO. Also, with PWAT values upwards of 1.5 inches, heavy downpours will be possible, although decent storm motion should keep flooding issues to a minimum. As with any potential for a stronger convective event, this will need to be monitored for any changes. Otherwise, although this will be the last day, it will also likely be the warmest day of this summer-like stretch with highs soaring into the mid and upper 80s for much of the area, with a few 90 degree readings not out of the question in those traditional warmest spots across the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region. One caveat to achieving these very warm temperatures would be if any precipitation were to arrive prior to peak heating, with the best chance of that occurring across western NY.

There will be a break in the precipitation overnight Wednesday night as the first round of showers and storms associated with the prefrontal trough moves east and the next round of showers and storms with the surface cold front approaches from the west. Main threat with this second round of showers and storms will be some heavy downpours as PWATs remain elevated. Unfavorable timing of the frontal passage late Wednesday night and Thursday morning will keep severe chances down, with drier air then moving into the area behind the cold front Thursday afternoon. As was referenced above, a cooler day on tap with highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s, however this is close to where we should be for this time of year.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Canadian high pressure will build across the region in the wake of the cold fropa, with the majority of model consensus (ECMWF/CMC/ICON) keeping our area dry through Sunday, the outlier being the GFS which advertises some showers moving into the region Saturday night and Sunday. NBM shows SChc to low Chc PoPs during this timeframe as well, so at this point will hedge between a dry forecast and the higher NBM/GFS PoPs for the second half of the weekend.

The more notable aspect may end up being the degree to which we may cool down for a bit during this period with a secondary cold front crossing the region. Not only is the timing of this potential cool down still in question, but also is the magnitude of colder air that could potentially make it in here. The main reason for this is the discrepancy amongst guidance with regard to just how deep an upper level trough may possibly dig across the northeastern U.S. As of now, temperatures may end up a little below normal for a short time in this window, but will not last long. All in all, very comfortable later spring conditions.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Pockets of IFR fog will diminish giving way to widespread VFR conditions with light winds today. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible but likely will not impact terminals.

Tonight...VFR expected at all area terminals.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers or a thunderstorm.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Friday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Not much airmass change over the lower Great Lakes tonight which will keep the potential for more dense fog to develop. The greatest chance of this looks to be across Lake Ontario.

Light winds with minimal wave action expected on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through Monday.

South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes, but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front into the eastern Great Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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