Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 4:27 PM   Moonset 3:25 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

FXUS61 KBTV 191739 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 139 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the middle of the upcoming week as high pressure builds into the region with dry conditions persisting. Temperatures warm well into the 70s today and upper 70s to mid 80s by Monday. Building heat will continue for Tuesday and Wednesday, along with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 1021 AM EDT Sunday...No real changes made with the AM update.
Skies have cleared in the Champlain Valley allowing temperatures to climb. We are starting to see some of the fair weather Cu forming as expected. PoPs remain at or near zero for the vast majority of the CWA

Previous Discussion...A building mid/upper level ridge oriented from southwest to northeast from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast will provide mainly dry conditions to the region for the next 36 hours. Variable cloud cover exists across the region this morning associated with a weak surface trough and low pressure off the eastern seaboard pulling a marine stratus cloud layer into portions of eastern Vermont on southeasterly flow.
It will take some time for these clouds to lift this morning, and will lead to a fairly widespread cumulus deck this afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds expected. 925mb temps rise a couple of degrees from yesterday to +14-16C east to west supporting highs a little warmer than yesterday in the low/mid 70s east of the Green Mountains, and mid/upper 70s with a few spot 80s elsewhere. A mild night follows with lows in the 50s to around 60 and some river valley fog possible, mainly across eastern VT.

For Monday the main story will be the heat as 925mb temps warm several degrees more to around +18C area-wide supporting high temps in the low/mid 80s for most locations. Partly sunny and dry conditions will generally prevail, but there are signs of the ridge shifting slightly south allowing the mid/upper flow to turn more westerly along the international border. Weak shortwave energy riding along this flow and modest instability from surface heating could support the development of an isolated shower and maybe a weak thunderstorm along the lake breeze over the Adirondack coast and/or higher terrain of the Adirondacks, so will maintain some 10-20% PoPs introduced by the previous forecast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 327 AM EDT Sunday...It does look there is the potential for thunderstorms across the region on Tuesday. Within the building H5 ridge, there is an embedded weak shortwave trough that swings across the northern half of the CWA With temperatures getting into the low to mid 80s and dew points reaching the upper 50s to low 60s, there is the potential for a few stronger storms with 500 to 1000 J/kg of surface based CAPE and 25 kt of shear. Mid level lapse rates are not that impressive, but any stronger storm is capable of producing large hail and locally strong wind gusts. With PWAT values at 1.5 standard deviations above normal, locally heavy downpours are also possible. So despite 925mb temperatures rising reaching +21C to +24C, we are currently forecasting highs to generally top out in the low to mid 80s range due to the chance for rain and thunderstorms. A potential limiting factor for the thunderstorm coverage is that the wind field is generally westerly, so the moisture profile might be a little lacking for updrafts to develop efficiently despite good instability and speed shear.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 327 AM EDT Sunday...At this time, it looks like Wednesday would be warmer than Tuesday due to lower shower and thunderstorm coverage as well as slightly higher temperatures aloft. 925mb temperatures reach +22 to +25C, or around 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday, with 90 degrees not out of the question. With dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s, some locations in the lower Champlain valley might experience apparent temperatures or heat index values in the mid 90s range on Wednesday afternoon. Whether or not heat advisories are needed, people should pay attention to heat risk associated with this early season warm weather owing to the lack of acclimatization.
Cold water safety should also be exercised due to water temperatures still only in the mid to upper 50s.

Surface cold front crosses the region sometime on Thursday. There remains considerable differences between the models on the frontal passage timing, as is expected at this time frame. Showers and thunderstorms are once again on the table, but whether they can tap into the best daytime heating is questionable. But if the timing checks out, it looks like we have the most favorable combination of ingredients for more widespread organized convection on Thursday.
Ensemble-based scenarios do show CAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg, along with 35 kt shear and a southwesterly wind component helping to advect a more moist 1000-500mb moisture profile. Overall, given the uncertainty in timing of the frontal passage, have only kept a generic mention of thunderstorms. Temperatures wise, best probability of low to mid 80s would be across Vermont. Behind the cold front, we do get a reprieve from the early season heat, with seasonable highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s expected on Friday and Saturday. It will also be quite refreshing with dew points in the 40s along with dry weather.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions continue through the TAF period, with the only possible exception of MPV developing fog overnight. Currently seeing widespread Cu deck that will clear off when diurnal heating shuts down. Low level winds could die off in the vicinity of MPV allowing for creation of FG near sunrise, but conditions aren't favorable for more than short duration IFR.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Troy
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:59 AM EDT     4.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:34 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:08 PM EDT     4.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:51 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Albany
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:51 AM EDT     4.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:24 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:00 PM EDT     4.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:41 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Burlington, VT,