Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hailey, ID
May 20, 2024 5:20 AM MDT (11:20 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:08 AM Sunset 9:00 PM Moonrise 5:26 PM Moonset 3:31 AM |
FXUS65 KPIH 200937 AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 337 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024
SHORT TERM
Today through Tuesday night.
Upper trof drops over Idaho today and main short term impacts will be showers and and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoons mainly both today and Tuesday as the trof works through.
Temperatures will remain very cool with a frost advisory this morning with lows in the mid to upper 30s in the Magic Valley and Snake River Plain. It will likely be another marginal case Tuesday morning but will issue nothing right now. Highs will again be around 10 degrees cooler than normal today with perhaps a couple degrees warmer on Tuesday but still well below normal once again.
Highs today mainly 40s to lower 50s mountains and 50s valleys.
Snow levels 6 to 7 thousand feet but not expecting any impacts with light accumulations well above 7 thousand feet.
GK
LONG TERM
Wednesday through next Monday.
The midweek forecast period continues to look active with seasonably cold temperatures as a trough overhead earlier in the week departs east into Wyoming Tuesday night with another one moving in right behind for Wednesday and Thursday. In between these two systems, a transitory ridge of high pressure building in late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning will support drier conditions ahead of increasing precipitation chances throughout the day Wednesday NW to SE. A mix of rain/high elevation snow showers, and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday as a H5 low tracks directly over the CNTRL Mountains, SW Montana, and NW Wyoming.
As a result of this track over NRN portions of our CWA, look for the highest precipitation totals in the CNTRL Mountains and along the MT border, including along and near I-15 east into Wyoming. The latest 48-hour NBM QPF/rainfall forecast shows around 0.20-0.50" in these valleys and 0.35-1.00" in these mountains with lighter amounts less than 0.20" elsewhere in and around the Magic Valley. The NBM carries generally the most liquid in comparison to the ECMWF/GFS at this time with the placement of the low being the main determining factor for where those heavier amounts end up developing. With respect to snow, best chances for accumulations will remain confined above 6500- 7000' with the potential for light snow in places like Ketchum, Stanley, Island Park, and across higher elevation mountain valleys along the Wyoming border. Moderate snow accumulations are also expected above 8000-8500' in that 5-10" range across the CNTRL Mountains and along the Wyoming/Montana borders.
As the Wednesday/Thursday system departs NE into Wyoming and Montana Thursday night into Friday, drier conditions will return regionwide and drier, zonal flow fills in behind the exiting low. A H5 ridge of high pressure still offshore in the Pacific will keep our favorable storm track going into the weekend with another H5 low on the way for Saturday. The difference between this low and the midweek low will be its further northerly track amongst the latest ensembles and deterministic models which means conditions would remain drier and temperatures would not see as much of a drop versus a further southerly track. That system Saturday will also be quicker moving in nature as dry conditions return for Sunday and Monday with a H5 ridge moving overhead from the Pacific. This will support the return of a warming trend for early next week with highs back in the 60s/70s and maybe even some low 80s across our lowest elevations.
High temperatures before that warmup however will be coldest on Thursday with highs in the 40s/50s while every other day through the weekend will be in the 50s/60s. Will also have to monitor the potential for frost/freeze products Thursday and Friday mornings across the Snake Plain given colder overnight lows in the 20s/30s.
In addition, winds will also remain breezy through the weekend, peaking each afternoon with gusts up to around 30-40 mph. MacKay
AVIATION
For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday.
Predominant VFR conditions will continue for Monday as our next upper-level trough shifts overhead. This will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing later today that will continue across ERN Idaho into early Tuesday morning. The HRRR model probability of thunder shows a 20-40% chance at all terminals, again highlighting those isolated chances for convection this afternoon and evening regionwide. Winds today will be lighter in comparison to yesterday, peaking around 10-15 kts with gusts to 15-25 kts. CIGS will be partly to mostly cloudy through the TAF period, generally in that 6-12k feet range with the potential for lower CIGS/VIS at times associated with any shower or thunderstorm activity. MacKay
FIRE WEATHER
Unsettled and seasonably cool conditions will continue through the work week as a series of upper-levels troughs pass through the Gem State for Monday/Tuesday and again on Wednesday/Thursday. These systems will support a mix of rain/high elevation snow showers and thunderstorms at times each day. That midweek storm system at this time looks to provide the most widespread precipitation chances with an emphasis on FWZ 410, 411, 413, 422, and especially 475/476 given this low pressure system tracking directly overhead these zones with drier conditions favored in FWZ 425 and 427. In addition to cooler temperatures, winds will remain elevated given this active pattern with the strongest winds expected on Wednesday/Thursday/Saturday.
A third, quick moving trough remains on track to pass through on Saturday supporting another round of isolated showers/storms with increasing confidence surrounding a return to warmer and drier weather to round out the weekend into early next week. This will be courtesy of a ridge of high pressure that was out in the Pacific helping guide these troughs to our region finally move onshore and bringing with it a return to seasonably warm conditions. Highs will be in the 40s/50s/60s this week with lows in the 20s/30s/40s ahead of warmer weather on the way to kick off next week. MacKay
HYDROLOGY
A flood warning continues for the Portneuf river in Pocatello. A flood advisory continues along the Portneuf river at Topaz. Water levels are slowly receding for the Portneuf river due to the snowpack diminishing and slightly overall cooler temperatures. River levels for most other big rivers look to remain the same this week, if not slightly less, due to overall slightly cooler temperatures expected this week. However, warmer temperatures, perhaps the warmest of the year, look to return the week of May 27th, which should bring increased runoff for most other big rivers.
TW
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ051>055.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 337 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024
SHORT TERM
Today through Tuesday night.
Upper trof drops over Idaho today and main short term impacts will be showers and and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoons mainly both today and Tuesday as the trof works through.
Temperatures will remain very cool with a frost advisory this morning with lows in the mid to upper 30s in the Magic Valley and Snake River Plain. It will likely be another marginal case Tuesday morning but will issue nothing right now. Highs will again be around 10 degrees cooler than normal today with perhaps a couple degrees warmer on Tuesday but still well below normal once again.
Highs today mainly 40s to lower 50s mountains and 50s valleys.
Snow levels 6 to 7 thousand feet but not expecting any impacts with light accumulations well above 7 thousand feet.
GK
LONG TERM
Wednesday through next Monday.
The midweek forecast period continues to look active with seasonably cold temperatures as a trough overhead earlier in the week departs east into Wyoming Tuesday night with another one moving in right behind for Wednesday and Thursday. In between these two systems, a transitory ridge of high pressure building in late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning will support drier conditions ahead of increasing precipitation chances throughout the day Wednesday NW to SE. A mix of rain/high elevation snow showers, and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday as a H5 low tracks directly over the CNTRL Mountains, SW Montana, and NW Wyoming.
As a result of this track over NRN portions of our CWA, look for the highest precipitation totals in the CNTRL Mountains and along the MT border, including along and near I-15 east into Wyoming. The latest 48-hour NBM QPF/rainfall forecast shows around 0.20-0.50" in these valleys and 0.35-1.00" in these mountains with lighter amounts less than 0.20" elsewhere in and around the Magic Valley. The NBM carries generally the most liquid in comparison to the ECMWF/GFS at this time with the placement of the low being the main determining factor for where those heavier amounts end up developing. With respect to snow, best chances for accumulations will remain confined above 6500- 7000' with the potential for light snow in places like Ketchum, Stanley, Island Park, and across higher elevation mountain valleys along the Wyoming border. Moderate snow accumulations are also expected above 8000-8500' in that 5-10" range across the CNTRL Mountains and along the Wyoming/Montana borders.
As the Wednesday/Thursday system departs NE into Wyoming and Montana Thursday night into Friday, drier conditions will return regionwide and drier, zonal flow fills in behind the exiting low. A H5 ridge of high pressure still offshore in the Pacific will keep our favorable storm track going into the weekend with another H5 low on the way for Saturday. The difference between this low and the midweek low will be its further northerly track amongst the latest ensembles and deterministic models which means conditions would remain drier and temperatures would not see as much of a drop versus a further southerly track. That system Saturday will also be quicker moving in nature as dry conditions return for Sunday and Monday with a H5 ridge moving overhead from the Pacific. This will support the return of a warming trend for early next week with highs back in the 60s/70s and maybe even some low 80s across our lowest elevations.
High temperatures before that warmup however will be coldest on Thursday with highs in the 40s/50s while every other day through the weekend will be in the 50s/60s. Will also have to monitor the potential for frost/freeze products Thursday and Friday mornings across the Snake Plain given colder overnight lows in the 20s/30s.
In addition, winds will also remain breezy through the weekend, peaking each afternoon with gusts up to around 30-40 mph. MacKay
AVIATION
For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday.
Predominant VFR conditions will continue for Monday as our next upper-level trough shifts overhead. This will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing later today that will continue across ERN Idaho into early Tuesday morning. The HRRR model probability of thunder shows a 20-40% chance at all terminals, again highlighting those isolated chances for convection this afternoon and evening regionwide. Winds today will be lighter in comparison to yesterday, peaking around 10-15 kts with gusts to 15-25 kts. CIGS will be partly to mostly cloudy through the TAF period, generally in that 6-12k feet range with the potential for lower CIGS/VIS at times associated with any shower or thunderstorm activity. MacKay
FIRE WEATHER
Unsettled and seasonably cool conditions will continue through the work week as a series of upper-levels troughs pass through the Gem State for Monday/Tuesday and again on Wednesday/Thursday. These systems will support a mix of rain/high elevation snow showers and thunderstorms at times each day. That midweek storm system at this time looks to provide the most widespread precipitation chances with an emphasis on FWZ 410, 411, 413, 422, and especially 475/476 given this low pressure system tracking directly overhead these zones with drier conditions favored in FWZ 425 and 427. In addition to cooler temperatures, winds will remain elevated given this active pattern with the strongest winds expected on Wednesday/Thursday/Saturday.
A third, quick moving trough remains on track to pass through on Saturday supporting another round of isolated showers/storms with increasing confidence surrounding a return to warmer and drier weather to round out the weekend into early next week. This will be courtesy of a ridge of high pressure that was out in the Pacific helping guide these troughs to our region finally move onshore and bringing with it a return to seasonably warm conditions. Highs will be in the 40s/50s/60s this week with lows in the 20s/30s/40s ahead of warmer weather on the way to kick off next week. MacKay
HYDROLOGY
A flood warning continues for the Portneuf river in Pocatello. A flood advisory continues along the Portneuf river at Topaz. Water levels are slowly receding for the Portneuf river due to the snowpack diminishing and slightly overall cooler temperatures. River levels for most other big rivers look to remain the same this week, if not slightly less, due to overall slightly cooler temperatures expected this week. However, warmer temperatures, perhaps the warmest of the year, look to return the week of May 27th, which should bring increased runoff for most other big rivers.
TW
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ051>055.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSUN FRIEDMAN MEMORIAL,ID | 2 sm | 25 min | NW 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 34°F | 25°F | 69% | 29.97 |
Pocatello/Idaho Falls, ID,
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