Sunrise 5:18 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 5:35 PM   Moonset 3:43 AM

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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 305 Am Cdt Mon May 20 2024
Early this morning - East wind 5 to 10 knots veering southeast early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves nearly calm. Today - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon veering south late in the afternoon. Chance of showers until late afternoon. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Rain showers likely late in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot. Tonight - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tuesday - East wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tuesday night - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots veering south late in the evening, then becoming 15 to 25 knots after midnight veering southwest early in the morning. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 200247 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 947 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled Monday and Tuesday with several rounds of rain/storms.

- Risk 2 out of 5 for severe thunderstorms exists for Monday primarily over the southeastern corner of our CWA at this time. The main threats are gusty winds and hail.

- While there remains uncertainty on the exact specifics of the severe weather threat Tuesday, there remains a higher chance (risk 3 out of 5) for severe weather on Tuesday with all modes of severe weather (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes)
possible. Overnight storms Monday into Tuesday and how they track/evolve over IA/IL will impact the development and environment Tuesday afternoon and evening.



UPDATE
Issued 945 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

No major changes to the current forecast. There are a few pockets of light reflectivity making their way into the area late this evening, however, the showers have a downward/weakening trend. Areas west of Madison may see a brief shower, but otherwise most of the CWA should remain mostly dry through the first half of the night. Then our focus shifts to the upstream showers and thunderstorm activity over southwest IA as it looks to lift into the area by early Monday morning bringing an initial round of showers and thunderstorms mainly between 10z-15z.

Then we may see a brief lull before the MCV feature currently located with the severe thunderstorms in eastern KS lifts northeast through the early afternoon and redevelops showers and storms, especially for our far southeastern counties. Main concern with the afternoon activity will be some hail and gusty to damaging winds. The latest 00z HRRR is showing most of the morning convection limiting the redevelopment in the afternoon for southern WI with better chances further south and east, but other CAMs such as the 00z ARW and NSSL-WRF still lean a bit closer to the 12z runs.
Nevertheless while the 00z hi-res models still show different scenarios on how the convection will evolve, the main driver will be the MCV feature upstream and where it will track overnight. So will need to monitor and see how things evolve in the coming hours.

Wagner

SHORT TERM
Issued 400 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Tonight through Monday night:

High pressure should keep things quiet this evening as high clouds stream in from the southwest. With time overnight, scattered shower and storm activity is expected to increase as low to mid level WAA increases over our region. Activity should congeal into a coherent blob and move east over our area around daybreak on Monday. By midday Monday, a remnant MCV from convection over KS will move through, providing an compact area of enhanced flow and PVA aloft. The MCV will spread over the area and steepen lapse rates, leading to SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg, and enhance effective Bulk shear to around 50 knots.
Storm relative helicity is weak, dampening the tornado threat, but unstable and relatively dry low levels will support gusty winds, and any transient supercellular structures should support hail. Showers and storms should then exit after 7PM

Following the MCV, subsidence should take over, suppressing widespread shower and storm activity, and only some very widely scattered showers may continue overnight.

CMiller

LONG TERM
Issued 402 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Tuesday through Sunday:

Tuesday's severe weather threat appears much more robust given the dynamics. Two waves at the 500mb level look to enhance flow over a warm front that's expected to surge north with time Tuesday afternoon and evening as a sfc low deepens over Iowa and Minnesota. NAM/GFS/ECMWF solutions depict a moist, unstable environment with sickle hodographs, great low level instability, effective shear of 50 knots and favorable 0-3km shear of 50 knots as well. This type of environment would support supercells initially with upscale growth to a QLCS mode with time. Current timing for storms appears to be in the late afternoon into the evening. Some confounding factors appear to be the lack of jet dynamics aloft and the positioning of the warm front. The HRRR depicts convection exploding just south of the WI/IL border Tuesday morning. This scenario may limit the northward advancement of the warm front, but is an outlier for now. Once Monday convection shows its hand and we see more runs of the CAMs, we'll have a better grasp of the severe threat on Tuesday.

Beyond, the weather will grow quiet Wednesday into early Friday, before active weather returns next weekend.

CMiller

AVIATION
Issued 945 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

While there are a few pockets of light showers west of Madison most of the area will see the light and variable winds and VFR conditions overnight. Then showers and thunderstorm potential will increase by early Monday morning as the activity in southwesterly IA makes its way into southern WI. While there is a pretty good chance of seeing showers especially for MSN and JVL, there remains some question on if the initial round will make it east toward the other southern WI terminals. Also cannot rule a rumble of thunder or two with the morning round of showers. Then there looks to be another window for showers and storms across southern WI more toward the afternoon as the thunderstorm activity in eastern KS begins to makes its way across southern WI. While this activity looks to be scattered and not everyone will see something, any terminals that are impacts will likely see lower ceilings and visibility along with gusty winds and possible some hail. This line of of showers and storms are expected to clear east through the earl evening with drier and VFR conditions returning.

Wagner

MARINE
Issued 340 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Light and variable winds will continue over the lake through the rest of the afternoon and evening as high pressure moves northeast. Winds will then come around to southeasterly by daybreak on Monday and should become more southerly by Monday afternoon. Breezy southerly winds will remain Monday night into Tuesday morning before winds become southeasterly ahead of a low pressure system that will deepen as it approaches the Upper Great Lakes Region. Periods of thunderstorms are also expected over the lake Monday through Wednesday morning.

CMiller

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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