Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 4:28 PM   Moonset 3:26 AM

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FXUS61 KBTV 191858 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 258 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Temperatures will turn strongly warmer starting Tuesday as a strong ridge of high pressure moves over our CWA Record high temperatures are at risk on Wednesday as valley locations should exceed 90. A shortwave will come in Thursday, bringing an increased chance of thunderstorms and decreased heat.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 254 PM EDT Sunday...Vermont and Northern New York are currently under a SCT to BKN Cumulus deck. Skies will clear up overnight with the potential for fog development. The favored locations will be near the Adirondacks and in the Connecticut River Valley. Temperatures tomorrow will be around 5 degrees warmer than today as the ridge of high pressure moves overhead. We could again see cumulus development, but will avoid any thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 254 PM EDT Sunday...Tuesday is shaping to be an interesting day across the North Country as we look both at anomalously warm temperatures and the potential for strong convection. First off, let's look at the biggest impact which will be the widespread heat.
Models have trended slightly warmer with the airmass that will be advecting across the region early this week which has increased confidence that we will see temperatures push into the mid to upper 80s with the possibility of a few 90 degree readings. Luckily, higher dewpoints will be suppressed to the south with dewpoints only climbing into the lower 60s Tuesday afternoon. However, given temperatures nearly 20 degrees above normal and some increase of low level moisture, the potential for strong, and even a few severe, thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon is looking increasingly likely.
Global guidance and the NAM is coming into better agreement on a decent shortwave moving across the North Country Tuesday afternoon.
When you have synoptic forcing, good thermodynamics, and moisture, you have all the ingredients you'll need for thunderstorms.

Given the latest guidance, it appears the greatest potential for any strong or severe storms on Tuesday will reside near the International Border but could propagate further south should the position of the shortwave shift south. Model soundings show nearly 1000 J/kg of DCAPE with LCLs close to 800 mb. These soundings show textbook example for how thunderstorms can produce strong wind gust as they begin to collapse as the updrafts weaken. The question remains on how widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will be on Tuesday and right now we are generally carrying a 30-40 percent chance of storms. Confidence is relatively high we will see a few strong storms but exactly when and were are questions that'll get answered as Tuesday draws closer.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 254 PM EDT Sunday...Wednesday is shaping up to the be the warmest day of this upcoming week of elevated heat risk. Given the latest trends in the ensembles, we have decided to warm temperatures several degrees for Wednesday with several sites in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valley now expected to reach or exceed 90 degrees. Dew points will be low enough to keep up below heat advisory criteria but make no mistake, this heat will be dangerous up in the North Country. We are yet to be acclimated to such heat given it's mid May so be sure to follow all safety tips such as limiting outdoor activities, drinking water, and taking frequent breaks. We will be posting heat safety material on our social media accounts for those interested. We could see an isolated thunderstorm or two on Wednesday given the warm temperatures but the lack of any synoptic forcing should limit areal coverage. The environment will be conducive for strong to possibly even severe storms but storms would be far and few.

We are looking at a more widespread rain event on Thursday but there is still a lot of question to when precipitation will move through the North Country. The GFS continues to be on the faster side as the ridge doesn't build as far north as was thought several days ago which would bring showers and thunderstorms but of the garden variety. However, shear looks most impressive on Thursday which could come into play if a frontal system is slower to move through the region on Thursday. Everyone should keep an eye on Thursday but right now doesn't look too concerning. On a more positive note, following the strong frontal passage on Thursday, we will see a return of seasonal temperatures for the end of the week and Memorial Day Weekend. Those with outdoor plans this upcoming weekend should expect lows in the 50s, highs in the upper 60s to low 70s with partly to mostly sunny skies.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions continue through the TAF period, with the only possible exception of MPV developing fog overnight. Currently seeing widespread Cu deck that will clear off when diurnal heating shuts down. Low level winds could die off in the vicinity of MPV allowing for creation of FG near sunrise, but conditions aren't favorable for more than short duration IFR.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

May 22: KBTV: 93/1977 KMPV: 90/1994 KMSS: 89/1977 KSLK: 91/1911

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 22: KBTV: 70/1911 KPBG: 65/1975 KSLK: 63/1921

May 23: KPBG: 65/1964

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Troy
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Sun -- 02:59 AM EDT     4.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:34 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:08 PM EDT     4.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:51 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
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Sun -- 02:51 AM EDT     4.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:24 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:00 PM EDT     4.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:41 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

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