Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Thousand Island Park, NY
May 19, 2024 3:04 PM EDT (19:04 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:31 AM Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 3:42 PM Moonset 2:38 AM |
SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 956 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
This afternoon - Light and variable winds. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight - Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Patchy fog late.
Monday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Mostly Sunny.
Monday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy.
Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Thursday night.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
SLZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 191840 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 240 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Summer-like warmth is expected through mid-week. Mainly dry weather is expected through Tuesday before chances for showers and thunderstorms increase with the passage of a cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Cooler weather will follow the front for the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Mid level ridge and surface high pressure building into the region will provide dry weather tonight. Likely will see another round of fog tonight, although low level moisture looks to be a bit less, probably keeping fog not as widespread or dense as last night. It will be another mild night with lows in the mid to upper 50s.
Summer-like warmth starts to build into the region Monday. Mid level ridge remains over the area Monday as surface high pressure slides to the east. For the most part Monday looks dry, but there is an outside chance for a shower or storm on a lake breeze boundary during peak heating. Temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees above normal with most highs in the lower to mid 80s.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Heading into Monday night in the upper levels of the atmosphere, a large trough will be spread across the Rockies, while a ridge will span across the eastern half of the United States. Meanwhile, within the trough to the west, a shortwave trough will be in the midst passing east across the Upper Great Lakes. Translating this pattern down to the surface, the longwave trough aloft to the west will support a surface low over the Central Plains with a cold front to extend southward across the rest of the Plains, where it will gradually traverse northeast throughout the first half of the week.
Additionally, the shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes Monday night will support a surface low over northern Canada, placing its weakening frontal boundary to the north of the region Monday night through Tuesday, as surface high pressure elongated along the Northeast's Atlantic coastline remains strong to support primarily dry warm weather. Given the surface pattern, a southeasterly breeze Tuesday will support temperatures in the low to mid 80s with a few locations across the southern Genesee Valley reaching 90.
As the surface low passes northeast across the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday, an approaching cold front will support showers and thunderstorms to pass across the area from west to east.
Speaking of thunderstorms, provided the favorable timing some storms may have the potential of becoming well developed, as there will be plenty of instability with CAPE values surge towards 2500-3000 J/kg and lapse rates reach upwards of 8C/km, along with shear values of +150 m^2/s^2. Showers and thunderstorms will then continue into Wednesday night as the cold front passes across the area. Otherwise expect another warm day Wednesday with highs surging into the low to mid 80s across the higher terrain and the mid to upper 80s elsewhere.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The cold front should be in the process of exiting the region or just to our east by Thursday morning. There may still be some showers that linger behind the front on Thursday but should be fairly limited coverage wise
Otherwise
it will be cooler Thursday with highs in the low-mid 70s.
A secondary cold front is advertised to cross the region late Thursday night or even early Friday which will deliver a second shot of cooler air to the eastern Great Lakes
That said
the main challenge will be how much cooler with H850 temperatures potentially down to +4C to +7C. Guidance still shows anywhere from low-mid 60s to low-mid 70s. Will lean on NBM guidance at this point which is right in the middle with upper 60s to around 70F for daytime highs on Friday. The cooler airmass rapidly modifies over the weekend with a warming trend taking place across the region.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions expected for this afternoon with sct-bkn030-050 inland from the lakes. There may be a stray shower toward the upper Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region late this afternoon, but confidence in this is low.
Widespread VFR through the first half of tonight. There will be the possibility for some fog once again for the second half of tonight, however it is not expected to be as widespread or dense as last night.
Outlook...
Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Friday...Mainly VFR.
MARINE
Not much airmass change over the lower Great Lakes tonight which will keep the potential for more dense fog to develop. The greatest chance of this looks to be across Lake Ontario.
Otherwise, light winds with minimal wave action expected on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through Monday.
South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes, but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front into the eastern Great Lakes.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 240 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Summer-like warmth is expected through mid-week. Mainly dry weather is expected through Tuesday before chances for showers and thunderstorms increase with the passage of a cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Cooler weather will follow the front for the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Mid level ridge and surface high pressure building into the region will provide dry weather tonight. Likely will see another round of fog tonight, although low level moisture looks to be a bit less, probably keeping fog not as widespread or dense as last night. It will be another mild night with lows in the mid to upper 50s.
Summer-like warmth starts to build into the region Monday. Mid level ridge remains over the area Monday as surface high pressure slides to the east. For the most part Monday looks dry, but there is an outside chance for a shower or storm on a lake breeze boundary during peak heating. Temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees above normal with most highs in the lower to mid 80s.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Heading into Monday night in the upper levels of the atmosphere, a large trough will be spread across the Rockies, while a ridge will span across the eastern half of the United States. Meanwhile, within the trough to the west, a shortwave trough will be in the midst passing east across the Upper Great Lakes. Translating this pattern down to the surface, the longwave trough aloft to the west will support a surface low over the Central Plains with a cold front to extend southward across the rest of the Plains, where it will gradually traverse northeast throughout the first half of the week.
Additionally, the shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes Monday night will support a surface low over northern Canada, placing its weakening frontal boundary to the north of the region Monday night through Tuesday, as surface high pressure elongated along the Northeast's Atlantic coastline remains strong to support primarily dry warm weather. Given the surface pattern, a southeasterly breeze Tuesday will support temperatures in the low to mid 80s with a few locations across the southern Genesee Valley reaching 90.
As the surface low passes northeast across the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday, an approaching cold front will support showers and thunderstorms to pass across the area from west to east.
Speaking of thunderstorms, provided the favorable timing some storms may have the potential of becoming well developed, as there will be plenty of instability with CAPE values surge towards 2500-3000 J/kg and lapse rates reach upwards of 8C/km, along with shear values of +150 m^2/s^2. Showers and thunderstorms will then continue into Wednesday night as the cold front passes across the area. Otherwise expect another warm day Wednesday with highs surging into the low to mid 80s across the higher terrain and the mid to upper 80s elsewhere.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The cold front should be in the process of exiting the region or just to our east by Thursday morning. There may still be some showers that linger behind the front on Thursday but should be fairly limited coverage wise
Otherwise
it will be cooler Thursday with highs in the low-mid 70s.
A secondary cold front is advertised to cross the region late Thursday night or even early Friday which will deliver a second shot of cooler air to the eastern Great Lakes
That said
the main challenge will be how much cooler with H850 temperatures potentially down to +4C to +7C. Guidance still shows anywhere from low-mid 60s to low-mid 70s. Will lean on NBM guidance at this point which is right in the middle with upper 60s to around 70F for daytime highs on Friday. The cooler airmass rapidly modifies over the weekend with a warming trend taking place across the region.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions expected for this afternoon with sct-bkn030-050 inland from the lakes. There may be a stray shower toward the upper Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region late this afternoon, but confidence in this is low.
Widespread VFR through the first half of tonight. There will be the possibility for some fog once again for the second half of tonight, however it is not expected to be as widespread or dense as last night.
Outlook...
Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Friday...Mainly VFR.
MARINE
Not much airmass change over the lower Great Lakes tonight which will keep the potential for more dense fog to develop. The greatest chance of this looks to be across Lake Ontario.
Otherwise, light winds with minimal wave action expected on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through Monday.
South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes, but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front into the eastern Great Lakes.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY | 7 mi | 47 min | 55°F | 29.96 | ||||
| OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY | 42 mi | 47 min | 74°F | 29.94 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KART WATERTOWN INTL,NY | 19 sm | 68 min | WSW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 61°F | 61% | 29.96 |
Montague, NY,
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