Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nelson, WI
May 20, 2024 6:33 AM CDT (11:33 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:31 AM Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 4:54 PM Moonset 2:59 AM |
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 200822 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 322 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Slight potential for strong to severe storms across southern Minnesota this afternoon.
- Increasing likelihood of strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday PM across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. SPC day 2 SWO brings an Enhanced Risk (3 out of 5) into SE MN.
- Heavy rainfall is likely and totals may exceed 3 inches through mid-week. This will likely lead to rises on rivers and their tributaries into the holiday weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Currently a mid-level low spins over the Dakotas and is forecast to prog east over MN/WI today. Convection has already begun initiating ahead of a warm front that extends from west-central MN over to Eau Claire, WI. Severe weather is not expected with this initial band of storms however, some of the stronger storms could produce pea size hail and brief gusty winds. Broader forcing associated with a cold front currently resides over Western MN where mainly showers and embedded thunder exists. This band of precip will spread over central and southern MN early this morning and begin to clear from west to east just after sunrise. There will be a few hours and some partial clearing to the skies later this morning into the early afternoon with highs into the mid-70s. The aforementioned boundary that brought the early morning precip, will become stationary as a trough over the inter-mountain west begins to become negatively tilted. This will force a potential MCS to develop over SE Nebraska, and SW Iowa. Its expected that system will lose its support and become disorganized. With that said however, another afternoon of convection does look possible. Forecast soundings showing an environment that features 0-6km shear nearing 30kts and elevated 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE thus allowing for the potential for gusty winds and large hail which aligns with the SPC's slight risk (level 2 of 5) across southern MN. Although given the questionable forcing mechanisms, kept only slight mention of PoPs in the grids for now.
Rainfall amounts through today will range between a tenth to a half inch, with locally higher amounts associated with stronger cells.
By Tuesday into Wednesday, the trough over the intermountain west will eject a Colorado low towards the northern plains and intensifies by the time it reaches MN/WI. Like with previous discussions, the MSLP for this low pressure is forecast to reach climatological minimums per the ensemble situational awareness table and the return interval for a system of this caliber for late May comes about once per decade. A defined gradient in temperatures will exist from Duluth, MN down to Sioux Falls, SD. Areas north and west of this gradient will struggle to reach 60 degrees whereas mid 60s to low 70s to the south and east. As this low pressure progs through, widespread rain and thunderstorms will occur. The kinematics for convection do look favorable for more severe storms Tuesday afternoon which is highlighted in the SPC Day 2 Outlook for southeastern MN under an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5). A slight risk for severe storms is forecasted north and west including the Twin Cities as there are uncertainties with northward progress of the system's warm sector. Primary hazards will be a few tornadoes based on forecasted hodographs, gusty winds, and large hail. NBM QPF totals still holding high confidence that much MN and western WI could see at least 1 to potentially 3 inches of rainfall through Wednesday night. Wednesday also looks to be the coolest day of the week with highs in the mid 60s and lows in the 40s.
Thursday features a lull in the precipitation as a brief ridge of high pressure progresses overhead. Temperatures will return to the 70s and lows in the 50s. Some more rainfall tries to sneak back in on Friday and again on late Sunday as another series of shortwaves develop and make their way east across the Northern CONUS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
A mix of -SHRA/-TSRA continue to make their way northeastward early this morning. Prior to the "main event" approaching all sites over the next few hours, an initial line of convection extends just north of MKT east towards EAU. This line should move through those sites over the next few hours before the widespread rain reaches the area. Winds for starters are light from the east with either a northerly/southerly component dependent on terminal location with regard to the initial line of rainfall. Prior to sunrise, winds will quickly shift to the NW once a trough progresses through. At that time, cigs will reduce to IFR for before mixing out before noon.
Confidence increasing on more storms possible for MSP southward but will likely introduce next routine TAF.
KMSP...A line of -SHRA/-TSRA will reach the field ~0730z before the primary band of precip arrives between 9-10z. Confidence remains with cigs dropping to marginally IFR levels as the activity pushes out and then improves to VFR early to mid afternoon. Will need to watch for redevelopment of -TSRA this afternoon and will likely be introduced with the 12z TAFs as confidence increases. Winds becoming west to northwest by early afternoon near 10 kts.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...MVFR or IFR. TSRA likely. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.
WED...MVFR bcmg VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind W 15G25kts.
THU...VFR. Wind W 10 kts.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 655 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
A heavy rain event remains on track for Tuesday, with a large footprint of 1 to 3 inches of rain, with some locations pushing 4 inches. The greatest rainfall totals are expected across southwest, west central, and central MN. Exactly where and how much rainfall we see will determine where a threat for river flooding will exist going into Memorial Day weekend, but given current rainfall forecasts, flooding during the holiday weekend may be possible in the Cottonwood, Redwood, Minnesota (upstream of Mankato), and Crow river basins.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 322 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Slight potential for strong to severe storms across southern Minnesota this afternoon.
- Increasing likelihood of strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday PM across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. SPC day 2 SWO brings an Enhanced Risk (3 out of 5) into SE MN.
- Heavy rainfall is likely and totals may exceed 3 inches through mid-week. This will likely lead to rises on rivers and their tributaries into the holiday weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Currently a mid-level low spins over the Dakotas and is forecast to prog east over MN/WI today. Convection has already begun initiating ahead of a warm front that extends from west-central MN over to Eau Claire, WI. Severe weather is not expected with this initial band of storms however, some of the stronger storms could produce pea size hail and brief gusty winds. Broader forcing associated with a cold front currently resides over Western MN where mainly showers and embedded thunder exists. This band of precip will spread over central and southern MN early this morning and begin to clear from west to east just after sunrise. There will be a few hours and some partial clearing to the skies later this morning into the early afternoon with highs into the mid-70s. The aforementioned boundary that brought the early morning precip, will become stationary as a trough over the inter-mountain west begins to become negatively tilted. This will force a potential MCS to develop over SE Nebraska, and SW Iowa. Its expected that system will lose its support and become disorganized. With that said however, another afternoon of convection does look possible. Forecast soundings showing an environment that features 0-6km shear nearing 30kts and elevated 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE thus allowing for the potential for gusty winds and large hail which aligns with the SPC's slight risk (level 2 of 5) across southern MN. Although given the questionable forcing mechanisms, kept only slight mention of PoPs in the grids for now.
Rainfall amounts through today will range between a tenth to a half inch, with locally higher amounts associated with stronger cells.
By Tuesday into Wednesday, the trough over the intermountain west will eject a Colorado low towards the northern plains and intensifies by the time it reaches MN/WI. Like with previous discussions, the MSLP for this low pressure is forecast to reach climatological minimums per the ensemble situational awareness table and the return interval for a system of this caliber for late May comes about once per decade. A defined gradient in temperatures will exist from Duluth, MN down to Sioux Falls, SD. Areas north and west of this gradient will struggle to reach 60 degrees whereas mid 60s to low 70s to the south and east. As this low pressure progs through, widespread rain and thunderstorms will occur. The kinematics for convection do look favorable for more severe storms Tuesday afternoon which is highlighted in the SPC Day 2 Outlook for southeastern MN under an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5). A slight risk for severe storms is forecasted north and west including the Twin Cities as there are uncertainties with northward progress of the system's warm sector. Primary hazards will be a few tornadoes based on forecasted hodographs, gusty winds, and large hail. NBM QPF totals still holding high confidence that much MN and western WI could see at least 1 to potentially 3 inches of rainfall through Wednesday night. Wednesday also looks to be the coolest day of the week with highs in the mid 60s and lows in the 40s.
Thursday features a lull in the precipitation as a brief ridge of high pressure progresses overhead. Temperatures will return to the 70s and lows in the 50s. Some more rainfall tries to sneak back in on Friday and again on late Sunday as another series of shortwaves develop and make their way east across the Northern CONUS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
A mix of -SHRA/-TSRA continue to make their way northeastward early this morning. Prior to the "main event" approaching all sites over the next few hours, an initial line of convection extends just north of MKT east towards EAU. This line should move through those sites over the next few hours before the widespread rain reaches the area. Winds for starters are light from the east with either a northerly/southerly component dependent on terminal location with regard to the initial line of rainfall. Prior to sunrise, winds will quickly shift to the NW once a trough progresses through. At that time, cigs will reduce to IFR for before mixing out before noon.
Confidence increasing on more storms possible for MSP southward but will likely introduce next routine TAF.
KMSP...A line of -SHRA/-TSRA will reach the field ~0730z before the primary band of precip arrives between 9-10z. Confidence remains with cigs dropping to marginally IFR levels as the activity pushes out and then improves to VFR early to mid afternoon. Will need to watch for redevelopment of -TSRA this afternoon and will likely be introduced with the 12z TAFs as confidence increases. Winds becoming west to northwest by early afternoon near 10 kts.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...MVFR or IFR. TSRA likely. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.
WED...MVFR bcmg VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind W 15G25kts.
THU...VFR. Wind W 10 kts.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 655 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
A heavy rain event remains on track for Tuesday, with a large footprint of 1 to 3 inches of rain, with some locations pushing 4 inches. The greatest rainfall totals are expected across southwest, west central, and central MN. Exactly where and how much rainfall we see will determine where a threat for river flooding will exist going into Memorial Day weekend, but given current rainfall forecasts, flooding during the holiday weekend may be possible in the Cottonwood, Redwood, Minnesota (upstream of Mankato), and Crow river basins.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
La Crosse, WI,
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