Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 4:01 PM   Moonset 2:49 AM

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PZZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Falcon To Cape Foulweather Or Out 10 Nm- 203 Am Pdt Sun May 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 am pdt this morning through late tonight - .
Today - NW wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 5 ft at 8 seconds. Tonight - N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 6 ft at 8 seconds. Mon - N wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 6 ft at 8 seconds.Mon night - N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 5 ft at 8 seconds. Tue - SW wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 4 ft at 7 seconds. Rain.Tue night - W wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves W 3 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 6 ft at 8 seconds. Chance of showers. Wed - NW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 8 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - W wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves W 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 5 ft at 8 seconds.

PZZ200 203 Am Pdt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pressure will continue through the weekend before the next front arrives late Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure then returns mid-week.

FXUS66 KPQR 191729 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Portland OR 1029 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers return this morning and afternoon across the region with a brief period of dry weather Monday. Expect morning stratus both days. A weather system will bring more widespread but generally light rain across the region Tuesday with showers continuing Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Dry Thursday with the pattern becoming more uncertain beyond Thursday with low chances of scattered showers into the weekend.
Temperatures remain mild all week with generally 60s in the inland valleys and 50s across the coast, except for Monday when temperatures could reach right around 70 degrees for inland valleys.

SHORT TERM
Sunday through Tuesday...Radar imagery early Sunday morning shows isolated showers occurring in far northern Oregon and SW Washington, mainly along the coast and over the waters. Ensemble guidance indicates another upper level shortwave trough will move through the region late this morning and afternoon. Scattered showers will increase in number across the region from west to east as the trough approaches and moves through this morning and afternoon. With less moisture (PWATs around 0.5 inch or less) and a much weaker jet stream associated with this wave, not expecting showers to perform as well today as they did yesterday afternoon with QPF amounts in showers generally less than 0.1 inch. However, can't rule out a stray heavier shower or two, especially over the foothills and Cascades with orographics enhancing shower growth. Onshore flow is continuing today, leaving daytime temperatures very similar to yesterday with low to mid 60s in the interior lowlands and 50s along the coast. Snow levels with this colder air will remain around 3500-4000 feet through the morning before rising above 4000-4500 feet in the afternoon. A dusting of snow is possible with any shower, mainly above pass level.

Will still be keeping an eye on frost potential in the Upper Hood River Valley the next few mornings. For this morning, both NBM and HRRR probabilities are down to less than 5% probability of temperatures at or below 35 degrees for Parkdale and north, which seems reasonable as temperatures at 3 AM are still in the low to mid 40s. These probabilities are similar for Monday and Tuesday mornings, so it looks like the frost threat is decreasing.

Monday will be dry and slightly warmer as ensembles indicate shortwave ridging over the PacNW. Will see mostly sunny skies except for some marine stratus in the morning hours due to onshore flow. NBM probabilities show a 40-60% chance of temperatures reaching or exceeding 70 degrees in the northern Willamette Valley stretching north along the southern Washington lowlands through Longview. In the central and southern Willamette Valleys, probabilities drop to 15-25% with 85-95% probability of temperatures above 65 degrees.

Enjoy the warmer and dryer day on Monday because cooler and wetter conditions return Tuesday. Ensemble guidance indicates good confidence in a closed upper low pushing south along the British Columbia coast Tuesday with a shortwave ahead of this parent low moving through the PacNW. The shortwave will have more of a west to east progression with an associated surface frontal system, which will bring a period of stratiform precipitation to the region from the northwest to southeast. The Willamette Valley will likely be rain shadowed due to the direction of the flow with higher precipitation amounts in SW Washington (including lowlands), the Coast Range, and Cascades.
NBM indicates only a 20-40% probability of 0.25 inch or higher rain amounts in 24 hours in the central and southern Willamette Valley ending 5am Wednesday. These probabilities increase to 50-60% in the Portland/Vancouver metro area, and 75-90% in the lowlands north of Clark County. The Coast Range and Cascades north of a line from Tillamook to Government Camp are forecast to receive the highest QPF, anywhere from 0.75-1.25 inch. NBM indicates 50-70% probability of QPF greater than 0.75 inches for these areas through Tuesday night. Snow levels will remain above 5500-6000 feet through Tuesday, so snow at or below pass level is not expected. -HEC

LONG TERM
Wednesday through Friday...Ensemble guidance has been in better agreement of the track of the closed low as it moves south from British Columbia into the PacNW on Wednesday.
85% of the 00Z Sunday WPC 500mb clusters, along with ensemble means, indicate the low will move through NW Washington to the central/east central Washington/Oregon border, then southeast through eastern Oregon. This pattern will continue onshore flow with cooler and more moist conditions. The other 15% of the clusters track the low much farther east through eastern Washington into Idaho in a more "inside slider" pattern. This would bring more of a breezier northerly wind pattern and dryer conditions. NBM is hedging towards the first pattern, as well, with showers continuing into Wednesday with thunderstorm chances as colder air aloft moves over the region.

Ridging builds again over the eastern Pacific Thursday with dry conditions returning. Beyond Thursday, ensemble guidance turns more uncertain. WPC clusters indicate general troughing moving back over the region sometime Friday into Saturday, but timing, location, and strength of the trough are all uncertain. NBM forecast indicates daytime temperatures remaining fairly steady in the 60s across the lowlands and 50s across the coast through the weekend with precipitation chances of 15-30% across the lowlands Friday and Saturday and up to 40-50% across the higher elevations. -HEC

AVIATION
VFR conditions continue at most terminals throughout the TAF period. The northern coastal terminals see 80% confidence in dropping to MVFR cigs around 0500, and will remain MVFR for the rest of the TAF period as some lower marine clouds look to move in at that time. At terminals other than KAST, just VFR conditions persist.

A few very light showers will be possible Sunday during daytime hours, but these will be extremely hit or miss, and minimal/no impacts are expected. VFR conditions persist even during these showers. Slightly stronger winds will gust out of the north/northwest, but gusts will top out around 20 kt. These end by 04-05z Mon at the coast and 09-10z inland, and winds will become quite light afterwards for the rest of the TAF period.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions through the TAF period. Cloud cover should clear up throughout Monday, moving more towards scattered clouds throughout the afternoon. Low chance of a few stray rain showers passing through Sunday afternoon, but these will be brief and non-impactful. Less than 5% chance of MVFR cigs with these showers. Isolated gusts associated with these showers may reach 20 kt, but only for one-off gusts as they pass through.
Vast majority of winds will remain below 10kt. /JLiu

MARINE
Buoy observations from early Sunday morning showed seas between 4 and 7 ft with a dominant wave period around 8 seconds.
Winds were out of the northwest around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt are likely occurring over the far outer waters. Given both winds and seas are flirting with small craft advisory criteria, have decided to maintain the ongoing Small Craft Advisory over the outer waters while also extending it through Monday morning. In addition, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the inner waters Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.

The next frontal passage of any significance is set to arrive late Monday night into Tuesday morning, bringing rain and a shift to westerly winds. However, wind gusts look to generally stay around or below 20 kt as the pressure gradient associated with this frontal passage appears rather weak. The exception to that is over the northern outer waters where isolated small craft advisory level gusts to 25 kt are now likely to occur (80-90% chance) late Tuesday into Tuesday night. -TK

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ251>253.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ271>273.

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Nestucca Bay entrance
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Sun -- 03:51 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:20 AM PDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:41 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:06 AM PDT     5.12 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:51 PM PDT     1.71 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:02 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:52 PM PDT     6.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon, Tide feet

Kernville
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Sun -- 03:51 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:42 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:01 AM PDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:35 AM PDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:02 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:32 PM PDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:21 PM PDT     5.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kernville, Siletz River, Oregon, Tide feet

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