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PZZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Falcon To Cape Foulweather Or Out 10 Nm- 226 Pm Pdt Sun May 19 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight - .
Tonight - N wind 15 to 20 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 4 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 6 ft at 8 seconds. Mon - N wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 6 ft at 8 seconds. Mon night - N wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 5 ft at 8 seconds. Tue - SW wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 4 ft at 7 seconds. Rain.Tue night - W wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves W 3 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 5 ft at 7 seconds. Showers likely. Wed - NW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves nw 4 ft at 5 seconds. SWell nw 7 ft at 9 seconds. Chance of showers. Wed night - NW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 7 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 4 ft at 8 seconds. Fri - NW wind 5 to 10 kt, rising to 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell nw 3 ft at 7 seconds, building to nw 6 ft at 8 seconds.

PZZ200 226 Pm Pdt Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - Breezy winds maintain low-end small craft advisory winds through Sunday night. The next front arrives late Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure then returns mid-week.

FXUS66 KPQR 192124 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 214 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Isolated to scattered showers into this evening, mainly over the higher terrain. Clearing after sunset, with a cool night expect as temperatures drop into mid to upper 30s for many areas.
High pressure will bring a sunny warm day for Monday. But, another front arrives on Tuesday, with clouds and rain. Showery with a thunderstorms possible on Wednesday. Will maintain unsettled with near average temperatures for rest of the week.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday afternoon through Wednesday)...Still have somewhat onshore flow across the region. Air mass still a bit unstable with the cooler air aloft. As such, will maintain isolated to scattered showers across the region, though bulk of those will be over the higher terrain.

Once the sunsets, air mass will gradually stabilize, allowing showers decrease and come to an end later this evening. Mid/low level flow will turn more northerly overnight, allowing for clearing skies.
Models continue to show bit of thermal trough building along the south Oregon coast. As it does, will see low level flow turn bit more northeasterly, or offshore. As such, will see tad enhancement of downslope flow, with cool drainage flow into the lowlands. Many valleys likely to drop back into upper 30s to lower 40s. Current forecasts look on track, but may have to watch. If gets a few deg cooler, could have to worry about patchy frost in mountain valleys and even in the Willamette and Cowlitz Valleys, But, given the clearing expected and dry cooler air mass, highest potential of frost looks to be south of a Corvallis to Albany line. So, will put up a Frost Advisory for the south Willamette Valley and adjoining lowlands. In addition, will include Hood River Valley under the Frost Advisory as well, where likely see areas of frost, mainly to west and south of Middle Mountain.

After a cool start to the day, will see much more sunshine for Monday. Sunny skies and temperatures climbing back to that expected for mid-May, 60s on the coast and 70 throughout the I-5 corridor.

Enjoy the warmer and dryer day on Monday because cooler and wetter conditions return Tuesday. Ensemble guidance indicates good confidence in a closed upper low pushing south along the British Columbia coast Tuesday with a shortwave ahead of this parent low moving through the PacNW. The shortwave will have more of a west to east progression with an associated surface frontal system, which will bring a period of stratiform precipitation to the region from the northwest to southeast. The Willamette Valley will likely be rain shadowed due to the direction of the flow with higher precipitation amounts in SW Washington (including lowlands), the Coast Range, and Cascades.
NBM indicates only a 20-40% probability of 0.25 inch or higher rain amounts in 24 hours in the central and southern Willamette Valley ending 5am Wednesday. These probabilities increase to 50-60% in the Portland/Vancouver metro area, and 75-90% in the lowlands north of Clark County. The Coast Range and Cascades north of a line from Tillamook to Government Camp are forecast to receive the highest QPF, anywhere from 0.75-1.25 inch. NBM indicates 50-70% probability of QPF greater than 0.75 inches for these areas through Tuesday night. Snow levels will remain above 5500-6000 feet through Tuesday, so snow at or below pass level is not expected. /HEC/Rockey

LONG TERM
Wednesday through Friday...Ensemble guidance has been in better agreement of the track of the closed low as it moves south from British Columbia into the PacNW on Wednesday.
85% of the 00Z Sunday WPC 500mb clusters, along with ensemble means, indicate the low will move through NW Washington to the central/east central Washington/Oregon border, then southeast through eastern Oregon. This pattern will continue onshore flow with cooler and more moist conditions. The other 15% of the clusters track the low much farther east through eastern Washington into Idaho in a more "inside slider" pattern. This would bring more of a breezier northerly wind pattern and dryer conditions. NBM is hedging towards the first pattern, as well, with showers continuing into Wednesday with thunderstorm chances as colder air aloft moves over the region.

Ridging builds again over the eastern Pacific Thursday with dry conditions returning. Beyond Thursday, ensemble guidance turns more uncertain. WPC clusters indicate general troughing moving back over the region sometime Friday into Saturday, but timing, location, and strength of the trough are all uncertain. NBM forecast indicates daytime temperatures remaining fairly steady in the 60s across the lowlands and 50s across the coast through the weekend with precipitation chances of 15-30% across the lowlands Friday and Saturday and up to 40-50% across the higher elevations. -HEC

AVIATION
VFR conditions continue at most terminals throughout the TAF period. The northern coastal terminals see 80% confidence in dropping to MVFR cigs around 05z Mon, and will remain MVFR for the rest of the TAF period as some lower marine clouds look to move in at that time. At terminals other than KAST, just VFR conditions persist.

Spotty showers continue throughout the area, but they are light as expected, with no significant chance of showers dropping cigs to MVFR. Winds are gusting out of the north/northwest, but gusts will top out around 20 kt (25 kt at the coast). These end by 04-05z Mon at the coast and 07-09Z inland, and winds will become quite light afterwards for the rest of the TAF period.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions through the TAF period. Cloud cover should clear up throughout the rest of Sunday afternoon, moving more towards scattered clouds. Low chance of a few more stray rain showers Sunday afternoon, but these will be brief and non- impactful. Less than 5% chance of MVFR cigs with these showers.
Isolated gusts associated with these showers may reach 20 kt, but only for one-off gusts as they pass through. Vast majority of winds will remain below 10kt. /JLiu

MARINE
Winds continue at low-end Small Craft Advisory level through Sunday evening for most areas, with seas around 8 feet at 8 seconds. NW winds up to 25 kt will turn N over Sunday night, beginning to weaken after midnight. By the end of Sunday night, the inner waters will have decreased down to 15 kt or so, while outer waters could see a few gusts above 20 kt until mid-morning Monday.

The next frontal passage of any significance is set to arrive late Monday night into Tuesday morning, bringing rain and a shift to westerly winds. However, wind gusts look to generally stay below 20 kt as the pressure gradient associated with this frontal passage appears rather weak. The northern outer waters will see slightly stronger gusts, with the possibility for Small Craft Advisory-level gusts up to 23-25 kt. Gusts there likely persist through Wednesday morning. -TK/JLiu

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Frost Advisory for late tonight into early Mon am for south Willamette Valley (including Benton, Linn and Lane County lowlands, and nearby lowlands of Cascades foothills), and the Hood River Valley.

WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ251>253.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ271>273.

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Nestucca Bay entrance
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Sun -- 03:51 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:20 AM PDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:41 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:06 AM PDT     5.12 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:51 PM PDT     1.71 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:02 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:52 PM PDT     6.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon, Tide feet

Taft
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Sun -- 03:51 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:21 AM PDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:42 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:59 AM PDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:52 PM PDT     1.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:03 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:45 PM PDT     5.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Taft, Siletz Bay, Oregon, Tide feet

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