Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garden, MI
May 20, 2024 6:15 AM EDT (10:15 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:07 AM Sunset 9:24 PM Moonrise 5:32 PM Moonset 3:34 AM |
LMZ261 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 250 Am Cdt Mon May 20 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .
Today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms this morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late in the evening, then veering to northwest after midnight diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday - North winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northeast late in the morning, then becoming east 10 to 15 kt early in the afternoon increasing to 10 to 20 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tuesday night - Southeast winds to 30 kt becoming south. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Wednesday - Southwest winds to 30 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Wednesday night - West winds to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday - West winds to 30 kt becoming southwest 15 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Friday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north - .
LMZ200
No data
No data
FXUS63 KMQT 200914 AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 514 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A round of showers passes through the UP today. While brief heavy downpours and occasional lightning are possible (15-30%), severe weather is not expected.
- Strong storm system will bring rain and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
- Windy conditions develop behind the system on Wednesday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 318 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics shows multiple cloud layers overspreading the UP this early morning, with a lower water cloud deck around 8kft per METARs and higher cirrus pouring in downstream of a complex of storms over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. RAP analysis shows this as a 500mb shortwave currently over Iowa and tracking northeast. Indeed, the forecast is for this shortwave and associated showers to arrive in the UP throughout the morning. The aforementioned cloud cover will prevent much destabilization, though the 00Z HRRR 90th percentile of SBCAPE over much of the west half does show up to 600 J/kg, so a few thunderstorms are not out of the question, though severe weather is not expected. PWAT values climbing to 1.25+ inches (90+ percentile per NAEFS climatology)
means ample moisture is present and some showers may have briefly intense downpours, though widespread impacts are unlikely as HRRR 50th percentile QPF by Tuesday morning is only 0.1-0.4 inches.
As the initial wave of showers departs around sunset tonight, attention will need to be paid upstream tonight. The available 00Z CAMs are split as to the presence of a decaying MCS over northern WI passing through the western UP overnight into Tuesday morning. The HRRR and HRW ARW are the strongest proponents of that MCS solution, but the remainder of the CAMs hold off on further noteworthy precipitation until later Tuesday. Should the MCS hold together (an already unlikely solution), the western UP could see some isolated strong winds from the decaying MCS, but more likely (80%) is that even if the MCS holds, it will be moving into a weaker convective environment and damaging weather will not maintain into the UP.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 513 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
An active pattern will continue across the Upper Great Lakes in the coming week as an amplifying mid-upper level trough over western North America allows for a series of shortwaves to eject ne from this trough to support more rounds of rainfall for Upper Mi.
Beginning Tue, After a period of dry weather late tonight into Tue morning behind today's shortwave and associated bout of rainfall, another stronger shortwave is expected to eject ne from the western CONUS trough and continue to deepen on Tue as it lifts through the Plains and reaches the Upper Mississippi Valley Tue night. The deepening of the system aided by strong upper divergence from a coupled upper jet structure (right entrance region of a 130 kt jet max over northern Ontario and the left exit region of a 110 kt jet max over the Southern/Central Plains) is reflected in healthy 12hr 500mb height falls of 150m predicted by the models over the Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes region late Tue night/early Wed. At the sfc, models indicate the associated low pres will deepen to between 985-990mb as it approaches and then lifts across western and northern Lake Superior on Wed. While this low track passing to the w of Upper MI will support the widest coverage of heaviest rainfall over MN and nw WI, moderate to locally heavy rainfall will still be possible across Upper Mi during the period of strong isentropic ascent/strong 850mb theta-e advection to the e of the low track Tue night. Precipitable water also increases to around 1.5 inches or near the climatological daily max for the day at ~200pct of normal.
Expect widespread showers and scattered t-storms across the area as mid-level lapse rates steepen across the area. Elevated CAPE values around 1000 j/kg as depicted by the fcst models may even result in a few strong to marginally severe storms given the very strong shear profile noted on fcst soundings. However that said, believe SPC's slight risk of SVR issued for late Tuesday into the southern UP may be a bit overdone considering we will be in an unfavorable e-se flow ahead of the approaching low for much of the day and with the strongest forcing from the system probably not arriving until after sunset, expect convection to be most likely elevated. GEFS probabilities show a 40-80pct chc of at least a half inch of rainfall from this system with the highest probabilities w and se.
Models show shower coverage diminishing significantly for Wed as we get into the dry slot and q-vector divergence/subsidence behind the system as it lifts north. Some areas may see dry weather for much of or all of the day, especially e half.
The biggest impacts from this system may end up being strong winds.
ECMWF EFI/Shift of Tails continues to increase into Wed with Upper MI mostly around 0.9 range now, suggesting a climatologically strong wind event for this time of year based on last 20 years of model climate. The EPS probabilities basically shows a 80-100% chance that the entire fcst area will see wind gusts exceeding 40 mph Wed afternoon into Wed evening with a 10-30 pct chance of western U.P.
higher terrain areas seeing high wind warning criteria gusts of 50 knots or greater. While winds for this fcst were increased from what NBM indicates, they are not as high as the median from the EPS and will likely need to be bumped up more. There will still be time to reevaluate for higher winds in later fcsts. For now, will mention the potential for higher wind gusts on Wed in the HWO product.
As the low lifts across northern Ontario toward James Bay on Thu, isolated showers will remain possible under lingering cool, cyclonic flow. Thu should be the coolest day of the week with highs in the lower 50s to the lower 60s F warmest s central.
Another shortwave trough lifting through the Plains into central Canada late week will send a sfc low pressure trough/frontal boundary into Upper Mi late Friday/Fri night which could linger over the area into Sunday bringing yet more opportunities for showers.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 124 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
VFR cigs/vsby prevail into Mon morning at all terminals. Conditions deteriorate Monday morning as a wave of rain lifts north across Upper Michigan. Model guidance brings in MVFR conditions first at IWD Monday morning and Monday afternoon at CMX and SAW as this area of rain moves through. Could be some IFR briefly at SAW late in the afternoon and at CMX Mon evening. IWD will improve back to VFR by Mon evening.
MARINE
Issued at 513 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Weak pressure gradients will keep winds less than 20 knots across Lake Superior into Tuesday morning. Deepening low pres will then lift toward western Lake Superior, reaching the lake Wed morning.
Expect e to ne winds to ramp up late Tuesday as the low approaches.
NE winds will increase to 25-30kt over western Lake Superior by late Tue afternoon, reaching gales of 35-40 knots by Tue evening. Winds increase further Tue night. Probabilistic guidance indicates a 50-80 percent chance of reaching gale gusts later Tue night into Wed across w and central Lake Superior. Although, model probabilities were low (generally less than 20%) for gales over the east half of the lake, I did bump up the gusts to 35 to 40 knots late Tue night into Wed due to a 60 to nearly 70 kt southerly low-level jet moving across the area at that time east of the low track. Gut feeling is despite the strong stability depicted over the lake by model soundings, believe that some of this wind will be realized near the sfc of the lake over higher platform observing stations. In short, decided to issue Gale Watches for LSZ162 00Z Wed-00Z Thu, for LSZ263- 264 04Z Wed-06Z Thu and for LSZ265>267 06Z Wed-21Z Wed. It is worth noting that some of the models that track a deep low just w of Lake Superior into northern Ontario show a potential for higher end westerly gales across the lake Wed into Wed night, especially across the w half. Will be something to monitor. At any rate, west- northwest winds should gradually diminish to 20 to 30 knots late Wed night into Thu and fall generally to 20 knots or less late Thu night into Friday while gradually becoming easterly.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for LSZ162.
Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night for LSZ242>244-263-264.
Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon for LSZ245>251-265>267.
Lake Michigan...
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 514 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A round of showers passes through the UP today. While brief heavy downpours and occasional lightning are possible (15-30%), severe weather is not expected.
- Strong storm system will bring rain and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
- Windy conditions develop behind the system on Wednesday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 318 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics shows multiple cloud layers overspreading the UP this early morning, with a lower water cloud deck around 8kft per METARs and higher cirrus pouring in downstream of a complex of storms over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. RAP analysis shows this as a 500mb shortwave currently over Iowa and tracking northeast. Indeed, the forecast is for this shortwave and associated showers to arrive in the UP throughout the morning. The aforementioned cloud cover will prevent much destabilization, though the 00Z HRRR 90th percentile of SBCAPE over much of the west half does show up to 600 J/kg, so a few thunderstorms are not out of the question, though severe weather is not expected. PWAT values climbing to 1.25+ inches (90+ percentile per NAEFS climatology)
means ample moisture is present and some showers may have briefly intense downpours, though widespread impacts are unlikely as HRRR 50th percentile QPF by Tuesday morning is only 0.1-0.4 inches.
As the initial wave of showers departs around sunset tonight, attention will need to be paid upstream tonight. The available 00Z CAMs are split as to the presence of a decaying MCS over northern WI passing through the western UP overnight into Tuesday morning. The HRRR and HRW ARW are the strongest proponents of that MCS solution, but the remainder of the CAMs hold off on further noteworthy precipitation until later Tuesday. Should the MCS hold together (an already unlikely solution), the western UP could see some isolated strong winds from the decaying MCS, but more likely (80%) is that even if the MCS holds, it will be moving into a weaker convective environment and damaging weather will not maintain into the UP.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 513 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
An active pattern will continue across the Upper Great Lakes in the coming week as an amplifying mid-upper level trough over western North America allows for a series of shortwaves to eject ne from this trough to support more rounds of rainfall for Upper Mi.
Beginning Tue, After a period of dry weather late tonight into Tue morning behind today's shortwave and associated bout of rainfall, another stronger shortwave is expected to eject ne from the western CONUS trough and continue to deepen on Tue as it lifts through the Plains and reaches the Upper Mississippi Valley Tue night. The deepening of the system aided by strong upper divergence from a coupled upper jet structure (right entrance region of a 130 kt jet max over northern Ontario and the left exit region of a 110 kt jet max over the Southern/Central Plains) is reflected in healthy 12hr 500mb height falls of 150m predicted by the models over the Upper MS Valley/Upper Great Lakes region late Tue night/early Wed. At the sfc, models indicate the associated low pres will deepen to between 985-990mb as it approaches and then lifts across western and northern Lake Superior on Wed. While this low track passing to the w of Upper MI will support the widest coverage of heaviest rainfall over MN and nw WI, moderate to locally heavy rainfall will still be possible across Upper Mi during the period of strong isentropic ascent/strong 850mb theta-e advection to the e of the low track Tue night. Precipitable water also increases to around 1.5 inches or near the climatological daily max for the day at ~200pct of normal.
Expect widespread showers and scattered t-storms across the area as mid-level lapse rates steepen across the area. Elevated CAPE values around 1000 j/kg as depicted by the fcst models may even result in a few strong to marginally severe storms given the very strong shear profile noted on fcst soundings. However that said, believe SPC's slight risk of SVR issued for late Tuesday into the southern UP may be a bit overdone considering we will be in an unfavorable e-se flow ahead of the approaching low for much of the day and with the strongest forcing from the system probably not arriving until after sunset, expect convection to be most likely elevated. GEFS probabilities show a 40-80pct chc of at least a half inch of rainfall from this system with the highest probabilities w and se.
Models show shower coverage diminishing significantly for Wed as we get into the dry slot and q-vector divergence/subsidence behind the system as it lifts north. Some areas may see dry weather for much of or all of the day, especially e half.
The biggest impacts from this system may end up being strong winds.
ECMWF EFI/Shift of Tails continues to increase into Wed with Upper MI mostly around 0.9 range now, suggesting a climatologically strong wind event for this time of year based on last 20 years of model climate. The EPS probabilities basically shows a 80-100% chance that the entire fcst area will see wind gusts exceeding 40 mph Wed afternoon into Wed evening with a 10-30 pct chance of western U.P.
higher terrain areas seeing high wind warning criteria gusts of 50 knots or greater. While winds for this fcst were increased from what NBM indicates, they are not as high as the median from the EPS and will likely need to be bumped up more. There will still be time to reevaluate for higher winds in later fcsts. For now, will mention the potential for higher wind gusts on Wed in the HWO product.
As the low lifts across northern Ontario toward James Bay on Thu, isolated showers will remain possible under lingering cool, cyclonic flow. Thu should be the coolest day of the week with highs in the lower 50s to the lower 60s F warmest s central.
Another shortwave trough lifting through the Plains into central Canada late week will send a sfc low pressure trough/frontal boundary into Upper Mi late Friday/Fri night which could linger over the area into Sunday bringing yet more opportunities for showers.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 124 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
VFR cigs/vsby prevail into Mon morning at all terminals. Conditions deteriorate Monday morning as a wave of rain lifts north across Upper Michigan. Model guidance brings in MVFR conditions first at IWD Monday morning and Monday afternoon at CMX and SAW as this area of rain moves through. Could be some IFR briefly at SAW late in the afternoon and at CMX Mon evening. IWD will improve back to VFR by Mon evening.
MARINE
Issued at 513 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024
Weak pressure gradients will keep winds less than 20 knots across Lake Superior into Tuesday morning. Deepening low pres will then lift toward western Lake Superior, reaching the lake Wed morning.
Expect e to ne winds to ramp up late Tuesday as the low approaches.
NE winds will increase to 25-30kt over western Lake Superior by late Tue afternoon, reaching gales of 35-40 knots by Tue evening. Winds increase further Tue night. Probabilistic guidance indicates a 50-80 percent chance of reaching gale gusts later Tue night into Wed across w and central Lake Superior. Although, model probabilities were low (generally less than 20%) for gales over the east half of the lake, I did bump up the gusts to 35 to 40 knots late Tue night into Wed due to a 60 to nearly 70 kt southerly low-level jet moving across the area at that time east of the low track. Gut feeling is despite the strong stability depicted over the lake by model soundings, believe that some of this wind will be realized near the sfc of the lake over higher platform observing stations. In short, decided to issue Gale Watches for LSZ162 00Z Wed-00Z Thu, for LSZ263- 264 04Z Wed-06Z Thu and for LSZ265>267 06Z Wed-21Z Wed. It is worth noting that some of the models that track a deep low just w of Lake Superior into northern Ontario show a potential for higher end westerly gales across the lake Wed into Wed night, especially across the w half. Will be something to monitor. At any rate, west- northwest winds should gradually diminish to 20 to 30 knots late Wed night into Thu and fall generally to 20 knots or less late Thu night into Friday while gradually becoming easterly.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for LSZ162.
Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night for LSZ242>244-263-264.
Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon for LSZ245>251-265>267.
Lake Michigan...
None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. | 19 mi | 35 min | N 1.9G | 51°F | 47°F | 29.96 | 46°F | |
| FPTM4 - Fairport, MI | 26 mi | 35 min | ENE 4.1G | 54°F | ||||
| PNLM4 - 9087096 - Port Inland, MI | 33 mi | 45 min | ESE 5.1G | 55°F | 58°F | 29.92 | ||
| GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI | 41 mi | 35 min | ESE 1.9G | 53°F | 29.96 | |||
| NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI | 46 mi | 75 min | E 4.1G | 54°F | 29.95 |
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Gaylord, MI,
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