Sunrise 5:26 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM Moonrise 3:49 PM   Moonset 2:38 AM

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LSZ146 Expires:202310052300;;562082 Fzus73 Kdlh 052249 Mwsdlh
marine weather statement national weather service duluth mn 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
lsz121-146-147-150-162-052300- /o.con.kdlh.ma.w.0033.000000t0000z-231005t2300z/ 549 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 600 pm cdt - .
for the following areas - . Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi - . Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm - . Outer apostle islands beyond 5 nm from mainland - . Port wing to sand island wi - . Sand island to bayfield wi - .
at 548 pm cdt, showers capable of producing waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots were located along a line extending from devils island, to raspberry island lighthouse, to near siskwit bay harbor, moving east at 35 knots.
hazard - .waterspouts and wind gusts to 45 knots.
source - .radar indicated.
impact - .waterspouts can create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.
showers will be near - . Red cliff, raspberry island lighthouse, and apostle islands national lake shore around 555 pm cdt. Stockton island and outer island around 600 pm cdt.
other locations impacted by showers include stockton island, apostle islands national lake shore, and outer island.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
move to safe harbor immediately as gusty winds and high waves are expected.
waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. SEek safe harbor immediately.
&&
lat - .lon 4676 9092 4687 9080 4690 9080 4693 9085 4692 9095 4683 9113 4709 9088 4710 9034 4687 9063 4673 9090 time - .mot - .loc 2248z 265deg 35kt 4708 9071 4696 9083 4680 9102
waterspout - .possible hail - .0.00in wind - .40kts

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 191755 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1255 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Our next chance of precipitation moves in tonight through Monday. A few mainly elevated thunderstorms may bring locally heavy rainfall.

- Slight Risk >15% for severe storms on Tuesday as a rapidly deepening low pressure system moves toward and across the Northland Tuesday through Wednesday.

- The active weather pattern continues through next weekend with precipitation chances returning for Friday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 504 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Today should be a generally quiet and warm day, with high temperatures generally in the 70s. Cooler than yesterday, but we will have a gradual increase in clouds through the day, a cooler start this morning and shallower mixing. We will have some warm air advection that sets in aloft which is likely to help those clouds increase and bring some virga showers into the area this afternoon. However, the very dry low level RH values will help delay the arrival of precipitation that reaches the ground until much later this afternoon or even tonight. Have included some sprinkles for today in advance of the main wave of precipitation. This is being driven by a weak shortwave in combination with a surge of moisture and an inverted trough at the surface. This system should bring us at least some light precipitation over a large portion of the Northland, along with a 75% probability or greater of getting a quarter inch or more over northwest Wisconsin. Once this band of precipitation moves through on Monday, we should get a short break in the active weather Monday night.

Tuesday into Wednesday is the time frame we are most concerned with, as a much stronger upper level shortwave pulls out of the Rockies and develops a surface low over western Kansas Monday night which drives northeast across the western Great Lakes Tuesday night. This much stronger system will combine with another surge of Gulf moisture to produce a period of very busy weather for the Northland Tuesday through Wednesday. Tuesday evening we should develop a narrow window of instability with sufficient shear to produce strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly over northwest Wisconsin. SPC has put us into a slight risk of severe weather on the day 3 outlook, which is well supported by what I see in the model guidance this morning. This system is also likely to generate generous rainfall amounts with that Gulf moisture feed, and the GFS is showing precipitable water values of over 1.25", which is over the 90th percentile, almost to the climatological max for this date. WPC has put us into a slight risk of excessive rainfall, and we will have to watch for localized flooding issues Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system exits the area Wendesday night, leaving us with some lingering shower activity into Thursday. We are also looking at some much cooler temperatures for Wednesday into Thursday, with highs both days down into the 50s to low 60s.

We get only a short break in the active weather Thursday before it appears we get another upper level shortwave that moves across the Upper Midwest through the end of the work week into next weekend. Models are still showing some pretty large variations in timing, track and strength of this system, so can not say much more than we have precipitation chances through this time frame with warmer temperatures on Friday followed by a cool down into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Clouds will continue to increase this afternoon along with a few light shower chances (20%). But, dry air at the surface is likely to prevent showers from becoming heavy. Winds continue to decrease going into tonight. Winds become south to southeasterly as low pressure approaches from the south. Rain will move in tonight and spread across all terminals through Monday morning.
A bit of thunder may be possible at BRD/HYR, but for most places, thunder is not expected. Ceilings are expected to lower to IFR later tonight with fog expected along with the rain.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 504 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Southwest winds will gradually increase over the lake today, with gusts of 25knots for several hours. This will cause conditions hazardous for Small Craft from late morning through the early evening for the North Shore north of Grand Marais. The winds will decrease once again this evening, then gradually back into the southeast overnight tonight. Monday winds will become northeast as a low pressure system approaches the area, but generally remain in the 10 to 15 knot range through Monday and Monday night. Winds begin a gradual increase on Tuesdsay as another low pressure system approaches and then moves across the area through Wednesday. It looks like we will need another Small Craft Advisory for much of the lake, with a small risk of gales Tuesday night into Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140.

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