Sunrise 4:56 AM   Sunset 10:55 PM Moonrise 5:03 PM   Moonset 3:20 AM

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PKZ758 NElson Lagoon To Cape Sarichef Out To 15 Nm- 330 Am Akdt Sun May 19 2024
.small craft advisory Monday - .
Today - W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.Tonight - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.Mon - SE wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain.Mon night - S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.Tue through Thu - S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 191331 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 502 AM AKDT Sun May 19 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A strong and unseasonably cool upper level trough extending south and east from the the Gulf of Anadyr to the Central Gulf of Alaska will weaken and lift north and east today as a strong shortwave rotating around the trough moves east through the Central Gulf of Alaska today and over the Panhandle on Monday. Weak ridging builds into the Western Gulf of Alaska on MOnday.

On the surface a 1001 mb low currently located approximately 50 nm east of Kodiak City will continue to weaken this morning as it pushes to the east into the Central Gulf today and into the Eastern Gulf tonight. A front wrapping around the low continues to push slowly north and is near Homer at this time. Strong southeasterly winds ahead of the front will diminish later this morning especially through Turnagain and Knik Arms where southeast wind gust in the 25 to 35 mph range continue early this morning. Rain has diminished over Kodiak Island as the front passed to the north. Expect unsettled conditions over Southcentral today with the rain over the Eastern Kenai and Prince William Sound slowly diminishing from south to north today as the front continues to weaken push north and east.
Copper River Basin will remain unsettled with clouds and showers expected through the day.
Winds, clouds and precipitation will decrease late Monday and into Tuesday as a weak ridge builds into the northern Gulf of Alaska.

A low over the Bering pushes another front into Southcentral Tuesday morning, with rain likely overspreading much of Southcentral by late Tuesday afternoon. A more southerly/southwesterly flow aloft as compared to an easterly/southeasterly flow aloft with this next low will bring a better chance of rain to the the western Kenai, Anchorage Bowl, and MatSu areas.

-CC

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday night)...

Due to good model consensus and run-to-run consistency, few changes have been made to the forecast through Monday. By Tuesday, however, forecast confidence diminishes as models differ on the evolution and timing of an occluding Bering Sea low. As such, there may be shifts in wind speed as well as precipitation timing and amounts in subsequent forecast updates.

The negatively tilted trough and upper-level low that brought much of yesterday's weather will continue to move eastward into the Gulf of Alaska through today. Shower activity over Southwest Alaska should largely taper off through today, though the combination of daytime heating and weak shortwaves wrapping around the low could lead to isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers.

Out west, a series of Kamchatka lows and fronts will begin to impact the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain. The first frontal system is currently over the Western and Central Bering/Aleutians spreading rain and winds up to 25 kt as it moves to the east. The second system, a Kamchatka low, moves across the Western Bering through today, merging with the first system as it reaches the Pribilof Islands. This now energized front will bring light to moderate rain and small craft winds as it sweeps east across the Bering Sea, reaching the coast of Southwest Alaska around midday Monday.

As the front moves into Southwest Alaska for the second half of Monday, coastal Southwest Alaska will initially see the brunt of precipitation. However, by late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, an incoming stout shortwave will intensify rainfall and progress the front eastward across Southern Alaska. Cold air aloft moves in behind the front, keeping showers over parts of the Bering/Aleutians and over much of Southwest Alaska through Tuesday.

-DAN/KC

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A persistent northwest to southeast oriented longwave trough will remain over the Bering with a shortwave on the southern terminus bending into the northern Gulf through Sunday. A second upper level low will move from Kamchatka into the central Bering on Tuesday followed by a third on Thursday. This series of low pressure systems will bring gusty wind, coastal rain showers and interior cloudy and isolated rain showers. Toward the end of next week, an area of high pressure will push from the North Pacific into the Bering Sea and nudge the longstanding trough eastward.



AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Light northerly winds shift to the southeast for the afternoon/evening as a weak Turnagain Arm wind develops. There is potential for light rain showers this afternoon as well, which could drop ceilings below 5000 ft. Southeasterly winds will diminish through the evening hours, with ceilings rising back above 5000 ft as any potential showers clear out.

CQ

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Amak Island
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Sun -- 05:11 AM AKDT     6.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:20 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:34 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:44 PM AKDT     1.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:02 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:49 PM AKDT     5.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:04 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:18 PM AKDT     3.85 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Amak Island, Alaska, Tide feet

Grant Point
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Sun -- 01:08 AM AKDT     1.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:19 AM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:27 AM AKDT     3.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:34 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 03:01 PM AKDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:01 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:05 PM AKDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:02 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Grant Point, Izembek Lagoon, Alaska, Tide feet

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