Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middles, KY
June 13, 2024 11:04 AM EDT (15:04 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:13 AM Sunset 8:53 PM Moonrise 12:03 PM Moonset 12:32 AM |
FXUS63 KJKL 131145 AAA AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 745 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Hot and uncomfortable weather builds through this weekend, with highs in low to mid 90s and heat indices peaking out around 100 degrees in some locations each afternoon from Sunday through Wednesday.
- Disorganized afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible next week as more tropical moisture builds into the region.
UPDATE
Issued at 730 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update.
These minor tweaks have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2024
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure still in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky with a frontal boundary well off to the northwest. This high has led to another night of light winds and mostly clear skies resulting in excellent radiational cooling conditions. As such, readings now vary from the mid 60s on the ridges to the lower 50s in many of the sheltered valley spots.
Meanwhile, dewpoints are mostly in the low to mid 50s north and in the upper 50s to low 60s south. Some river valley fog is also again evidenced on the satellite fog channel again this morning.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in reasonably good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict northwest mid-level flow over eastern Kentucky through the period with a couple of impulses moving by into Friday evening. This happens as the region remains between general troughing to the north and a burgeoning 5h ridge to the southwest. A weak impulse will pass by northeast of the JKL CWA today even as heights rise but a more impressive wave then cuts through the Ohio Valley from the northwest late tonight and into Friday. This will send some weak 5h height falls through this part of the state on Friday as the northwest flow strengthens for a brief time. The model spread through the end of the work week remains at a fairly small level so the NBM was again used as the starting point for the short term grids with little deviation aside from the incorporation of some terrain distinctions for temperatures early this morning and again tonight. The latest CAMs runs were also incorporated into the PoP grids for Friday.
Sensible weather features warmer days ahead with just a small threat for showers and thunderstorms on Friday. The convection will occur as a weak cold front slips through the area with only limited upper level support to work with. Although clouds start to increase ahead of this boundary tonight, still expect enough radiational cooling in the evening and early overnight for a small ridge to valley temperature split to set up along with a touch of river valley fog. The front will also not slow down temperatures much with many places seeing highs near 90 degrees to close out the work week - similar to those of today.
The main changes to the NBM starting point consisted of adjusting the temperatures in order to better represent terrain details this morning and, to a lesser extent, tonight. PoPs were nudged up during the day Friday in accordance with the latest guidance from the CAMS.
LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2024
The period begins with upper-level northwesterly flow, as the trough responsible for Friday afternoon's shower activity, pivots through the region. Behind the exiting trough, ridging is forecast to build in from the southwest with surface high pressure beginning to establish itself over the region for the remainder of the weekend into next week. As the high shifts north and east, increasing temperatures are expected as highs will climb into the low to mid- 90s for Sunday and Monday; this coupled with increasing moisture will allow for heat indices to approach 100 degrees. Models continue to remain in agreement for next week as surface high pressure will remain across the area. However, as the surface high shifts to the northeast, increasing Gulf moisture will allow for disorganized shower and thunderstorm chances through the remainder of the period with temperatures remaining in the low to mid-90s and heat indices in the upper-90s.
AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2024
VFR flight conditions will prevail throughout the period, outside of the river valleys where fog will be found through 13Z this morning and again after 04Z tonight. Winds will be light and variable at less than 5 kts into tonight.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 745 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Hot and uncomfortable weather builds through this weekend, with highs in low to mid 90s and heat indices peaking out around 100 degrees in some locations each afternoon from Sunday through Wednesday.
- Disorganized afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible next week as more tropical moisture builds into the region.
UPDATE
Issued at 730 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update.
These minor tweaks have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2024
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure still in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky with a frontal boundary well off to the northwest. This high has led to another night of light winds and mostly clear skies resulting in excellent radiational cooling conditions. As such, readings now vary from the mid 60s on the ridges to the lower 50s in many of the sheltered valley spots.
Meanwhile, dewpoints are mostly in the low to mid 50s north and in the upper 50s to low 60s south. Some river valley fog is also again evidenced on the satellite fog channel again this morning.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in reasonably good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict northwest mid-level flow over eastern Kentucky through the period with a couple of impulses moving by into Friday evening. This happens as the region remains between general troughing to the north and a burgeoning 5h ridge to the southwest. A weak impulse will pass by northeast of the JKL CWA today even as heights rise but a more impressive wave then cuts through the Ohio Valley from the northwest late tonight and into Friday. This will send some weak 5h height falls through this part of the state on Friday as the northwest flow strengthens for a brief time. The model spread through the end of the work week remains at a fairly small level so the NBM was again used as the starting point for the short term grids with little deviation aside from the incorporation of some terrain distinctions for temperatures early this morning and again tonight. The latest CAMs runs were also incorporated into the PoP grids for Friday.
Sensible weather features warmer days ahead with just a small threat for showers and thunderstorms on Friday. The convection will occur as a weak cold front slips through the area with only limited upper level support to work with. Although clouds start to increase ahead of this boundary tonight, still expect enough radiational cooling in the evening and early overnight for a small ridge to valley temperature split to set up along with a touch of river valley fog. The front will also not slow down temperatures much with many places seeing highs near 90 degrees to close out the work week - similar to those of today.
The main changes to the NBM starting point consisted of adjusting the temperatures in order to better represent terrain details this morning and, to a lesser extent, tonight. PoPs were nudged up during the day Friday in accordance with the latest guidance from the CAMS.
LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2024
The period begins with upper-level northwesterly flow, as the trough responsible for Friday afternoon's shower activity, pivots through the region. Behind the exiting trough, ridging is forecast to build in from the southwest with surface high pressure beginning to establish itself over the region for the remainder of the weekend into next week. As the high shifts north and east, increasing temperatures are expected as highs will climb into the low to mid- 90s for Sunday and Monday; this coupled with increasing moisture will allow for heat indices to approach 100 degrees. Models continue to remain in agreement for next week as surface high pressure will remain across the area. However, as the surface high shifts to the northeast, increasing Gulf moisture will allow for disorganized shower and thunderstorm chances through the remainder of the period with temperatures remaining in the low to mid-90s and heat indices in the upper-90s.
AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2024
VFR flight conditions will prevail throughout the period, outside of the river valleys where fog will be found through 13Z this morning and again after 04Z tonight. Winds will be light and variable at less than 5 kts into tonight.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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Wind History graph: 1A6
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Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
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