Sunrise 4:49 AM   Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 5:12 AM   Moonset 10:30 PM

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FXUS61 KCAR 072006 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 406 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
An occluded front washes out over Maine tonight. An upper level trough of low pressure will slowly cross the area this weekend, then continue northeast into the Maritimes on Monday. High pressure will build into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Over the next few hours continue to see the occluded front drifting NE through Central Highlands heading for Northern Maine despite washing out. E-SE winds continue to downslope off the Miramichi Highlands of New Brunswick with partly sunny skies till sunset in NE Aroostook County. While much of the area on E-SE winds from the Maritimes resulting in low stratus clouds along with those showers. A few breaks in the clouds before sunset near Moosehead may allow for brief destabilizing of the atmosphere and some convection may try to fire especially up and along the Quebec border.

Tonight, that slow moving occluded front will continue drifting NE through Maine as it completely washes out. Scattered to numerous showers are associated with the front gradually drifting north to the St. John Valley in Northern Maine. E-SE winds will drive the marine airmass back inland across much of the Downeast up to the Longfellow Mtns with patchy to areas of fog developing. Fog will likely become dense again along the Downeast coast and will allow the next shift to see if an advisory will be needed once it progresses inland. Behind the front the atmosphere above the boundary layer stable air will slowly become unstable overnight as the 500mb low shifts from Ontario into Quebec with cooling temperatures aloft. We will become in the left exit region of the jet resulting in increasing surface lift. At the same time strong vort max will pivot around the trof and keep the showers going tonight and cannot rule out with some elevated instability a few lightning strikes but overall expecting mainly just showers. Showers tonight will be decent rain producers with moist modeled soundings and PWATs increasing to 1-1.2 inch which is 0.2-0.3 inch above climo normals. Combined with increasing ascent may produce some areas of moderate to brief heavy rainfall. However, given the long term precip deficits and very dry soils expecting this rain to be beneficial and not concerned with excessive rainfall at this point. In the North Woods with groundwater conditions near record dry conditions heavy rainfall may struggle to be absorbed at first resulting in increased runoff, however flooding risk remains near-zero. Temperatures tonight fall back into the low to mid 50s with the clouds and showers.

Tomorrow, models in fairly good agreement that the 500mb low shifts into Eastern Quebec near the Maine border with cooler 850mb temperatures overhead. Shortwave energy will pivot around the trof over Maine so expecting several areas of showers across the area tomorrow. Expecting a mainly cloudy day tomorrow but a few sunny breaks are possible and with any sunshine and cooler air aloft will result in afternoon convection. Modeled soundings showing 750-1250j/kg of SBCAPE developing tomorrow afternoon especially away from the coast. Given the cooler boundary layer lapse rates struggle, however any daytime heating of the boundary layer could steepen the lapse rates. Overall, not expecting a threat from stronger storms and just expecting widespread showers and some thunderstorms posing the risk of lightning on a weekend. Expecting temperatures to climb into the mid 60s north with upper 60s to near 70F in the Central Highlands and upper 60s along the Downeast coast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The large upper level trough will continue to slowly exit the area through the weekend, maintaining an broad area of instability over the area with PWATs around one inch representing plenty of available moisture. Rain showers will continue Saturday night through Sunday, with Sunday afternoon convection including the potential for lightning due to diurnal heating in addition to the presence of the low.

High temperatures will remain in the 70s each day, while lows fall into the low to mid 50s each night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Daily convection will continue through the week, as the previous upper level trough presses eastward into the Canadian Maritimes.
Though high pressure will build into the area through the middle of the week, enough lingering moisture and daytime heating will exist for a daily chance for afternoon showers and storms.
Subsidence from the high pressure will keep low to mid level winds light, and shear will be limited through the end of the week, limiting the threat for any storms to become severe. As the week continues, southwesterly return flow will lead to daily high temperatures increasing into the upper 70s to lower 80s by the end of the week.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: FVE, CAR, PQI...VFR/SCT MVFR this evening becoming MVFR then IFR tonight. VCSH then -SHRA. BCFG/BR possible. E-SE winds 5-15kt. Tomorrow, IFR/LIFR becoming MVFR. -SHRA likely and possible TS in the afternoon. E-SE winds 5-15kt.

HUL...VFR/SCT MVFR becoming IFR/LIFR this evening with -SHRA expected and BR. E-SE winds 5-15kt. Tomorrow, IFR/LIFR becoming MVFR tomorrow. -SHRA likely and possible TS in the afternoon.
E-SE winds 5-15kt.

Southern Terms...MVFR/IFR becoming IFR/LIFR this evening. -SHRA and FG likely. FG may potentially reduce vsby less than 1/2SM in BHB. E-SE winds 5-10kt. Becoming MVFR tomorrow with FG breaking and -SHRA likely and potentially TS at BGR. Possible low-end VFR at BGR by tomorrow afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Saturday night
Light NW wind
IFR north. IFR To MVFR south.
SW wind.

Sunday...IFR north and MVFR south. Afternoon thunderstorms possible across all terminals. Light W wind.

Sunday night...IFR to MVFR north. MVFR to VFR south. Light W wind.

Monday...MVFR north. VFR to occasionally MVFR south. Slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms across all terminals. NW wind. Light W winds.

Monday night...MVFR to VFR north. VFR south. Light NW wind.

Tuesday...VFR early, with brief MVFR possible into Tues afternoon with any showers and storms. A chance for thunderstorms, particularly across the northern terminals. Winds light and variable.

Tuesday...VFR with winds light and variable.

Wednesday...VFR early, with brief MVFR possible into Wed afternoon with any showers and storms. Generally light SW winds.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below SCA conditions through tomorrow.
Seas may approach 5ft at times this evening 15-25nm offshore thanks to SE fetch but winds will shift S tonight then SW tomorrow. Seas subside to between 2 and 4ft tomorrow. Rain showers and fog will reduce vsby especially tonight potentially less than 1/2nm.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain below SCA conditions Saturday night through the first half of next week.
Seas will sit around 3 to 4 ft early before decreasing into next week. Patchy dense fog is likely over the waters Sunday into Monday, but the threat for fog may diminish into the middle of the week.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

Bassin De La Rivi?re St-Charles, Quebec, Tide feet

Montmorency
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Fri -- 02:07 AM EDT     0.62 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 04:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:07 AM EDT     5.41 meters High Tide
Fri -- 03:06 PM EDT     0.27 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 07:47 PM EDT     4.30 meters High Tide
Fri -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:30 PM EDT     Moonset
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Montmorency, Quebec, Tide feet

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