Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 8:47 PM Moonrise 2:23 AM   Moonset 3:44 PM

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FXUS63 KICT 021749 AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1249 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- The active pattern will continue for Today through Tuesday across the region with strong to severe storms possible

- A dry and quiet weather pattern looks to be in store for Wednesday through Saturday

DISCUSSION
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Storms will continue to develop over western and central Kansas early this morning. They will likely linger into the mid morning hours, aided by low level jet/moisture transport into a decent mid-level baroclinic zone. Meanwhile, current early morning satellite water vapor imagery shows a fairly healthy looking upper level wave over Arizona. This upper level wave will migrate east/northeast and reach western Oklahoma late this afternoon. A second upper level wave will move eastward from the Rockies across the northern plains. This northern system will push a cold front southward into Nebraska. These two waves will encounter deeper moisture continuing to surge northward per latest surface to 850mb polar orbiting satellite data products.
Thunderstorms should ignite ahead of the cold front in Nebraska and parts of western Kansas southward into Texas panhandle later this afternoon. The storms will grow upscale into a eastward forward propagating MCS across Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some of this activity could spread into central Kansas later tonight with damaging winds as the main hazard. CAM models show another possible MCS developing further south in southwest Kansas/Oklahoma and moving east overnight(could be in response to the current southwestern upper wave). Also if that southern MCS scenario happens it could chew up the moisture and toss a wrench into Monday's setup for Kansas making things less certain to predict.

Models show a more robust upper level wave moving across the northern plains on Tuesday with an associated frontal boundary moving south into Kansas later in the afternoon. Storms look to develop along the front in the afternoon and become more numerous Tuesday night. Some of these storms could be strong to severe once again with damaging winds and torrential downpours as the main risk.
Could also see some flooding problems arise for some locations that see repeated rounds of heavy rainfall for tonight through Tuesday night.

All model ensemble means show good agreement with a pattern change to a northwest flow regime aloft for Wednesday-Saturday developing over the region. This should give way to dry weather and near to slightly above normal daytime highs.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Showers and storm continue to develop across portions of central and south-central KS and will impact the all terminals except CNU through 20-21Z. Behind the showers/storms, winds may briefly shift to the east at 10-15 kt but should quickly return to the south at 15-25 kt. More convection is possible late tonight into Monday but confidence is quite low and have opted for a four hour PROB 30 group at each terminal. MVFR CIGS may accompany the convection late tonight into Monday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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