Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Calhan, CO
June 2, 2024 7:48 PM MDT (01:48 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:33 AM Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 2:52 AM Moonset 4:16 PM |
Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 030057 AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 657 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Summer heat through most of this week, with a few 90 degree readings over the plains. Breezy but a little cooler Tuesday.
- Chance of showers and storms for Monday night
- Return to more normal temperatures and a chance of storms towards next weekend
UPDATE
Issued at 657 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Latest radar and satellite imagery shows a QLCS moving across NE/KS, bending back to the SW into extreme eastern Colorado along I-70 in Kit Carson County. Weak showers have redeveloped in the post-convective airmass across the northeast corner of Colorado. The post-convective airmass is quite cool, with temperatures in the 60s across northeast Colorado and dry with dewpoints in the 30s, and thus stable enough that no further thunderstorms are expected across the plains. We cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch as a result. However, despite the dry air in place, there is still enough instability that a few showers are possible, especially across the northern mountains and the Palmer Divide through about 10 PM. We don't expect any further showers after 10 PM across the area. Though a few isolated thunderstorms will continue across the Front Range mountains through 10PM, the main impacts from any showers should be gusty winds.
In the wake of the convection, northern Colorado, especially closest to Wyoming across Larimer and Weld Counties, continues to see strong north winds via evaporative cooling. These winds may gust over 40 mph until 9 PM. The forecast has been updated to reflect the latest trends in temperature, wind, and PoP.
SHORT TERM /Through Monday/
Issued at 231 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Lift from the wave tracking across the region is producing strong to severe thunderstorms over southern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Additional thunderstorms extend west-southwest into north central Colorado. As these storms progress eastward, they will encounter a more moist and unstable airmass. MLCAPE has climbed to 1000-2000J/kg over the northeast plains and as storms move into and/or form over the area, they should become severe with large hail (tennis ball size) and damaging winds. Easterly winds are prevailing across much of northeast Colorado and are helping to retain low level moisture. Earlier model runs showed dry gusty west winds for most of the area and not these northeast winds, thus forecast confidence is on the low side and expect convection a little more south. The 18Z NAM shows 400-800 J/kg with upper 30s dew points, so we could see some stronger storms as far south of I-70. By mid to late evening, expect the storms to progress east of the area with dry conditions then in place for the night.
For Monday, weak ridging in the westerly flow will prevail. It will be a warm day with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s across northeast Colorado. With dew points in the 30s and CAPE less than 300 J/kg, expect dry conditions, though there should be high-based cumulus clouds with virga and perhaps dry microbursts.
Better chance for showers and storms will come Monday night as a short wave trough tracks across the region.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Models have a weak upper trough move across the CWA Monday night into Tuesday morning. This feature looks a bit stronger than it did yesterday. The QG fields show weak upward vertical velocity for the CWA Monday night, then weak downward motion Tuesday.
There is neutral energy progged Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The low level pressure and wind fields show downsloping surface winds to dominate both Tuesday and Wednesday, with drainage patterns during the nights.
For moisture, precipitable water values are in the 0.50 to 1.10 inch range over the CWA Monday night. CAPE is just fair Monday evening, and mainly just over the eastern half of the plains. The northern half of the CWA will have the highest pops, with 30-50%s in the mountains and 30-40%s over the northeast corner. For Tuesday through Wednesday night, moisture dries out and there is no CAPE progged. Will keep those periods dry. Of note, cross sections show a bit of a mountain wave set-up later Monday night into Tuesday after the upper trough passes, so I will make sure to beef-up the downsloping winds a bit along and east of the divide in the mountains and foothills.
For temperatures, Tuesday's highs are a tad cooler than Monday's, but Wedensday's highs are 1-4 C warmer. So "now" it looks like the first Denver 90 degree F reading will be on Wednesday?
For that later days, Thursday through Sunday, models have upper ridging in control of Thursday's weather. By Friday, continuing through the weekend, the upper ridge gets pushed a bit west, at least enough to allow for cooler air to get into the CWA
Precipitable water values and surface dew points are pretty high.
Instability is decent too. Scattered pops seem reasonable; perhaps even higher, but that is still quite a few days away. Temperatures could cool to below seasonal normals for highs on Saturday and Sunday.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday/
Issued at 614 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
VFR conditions through Monday. There is a huge line of storms exiting Colorado to the east. At the terminals, convective potential is essentially 0 for the remainder of the evening. Weak showers along the Wyoming border continue to generate strong north winds to the north of the terminals. Another gust front from the north is not out of the question, but if one occurs it would just prolong the north winds this evening. From now until about 02Z, north winds should weaken, gusting 25-30 kts now, down to 10-20 kt by 02Z. By 06-08Z, drainage winds out of the SSW should go 8-12 kts all night long, becoming WSW after 14Z. Wind direction might be a challenge from midday to the afternoon hours, as some guidance has WNW winds, others an east wind. Either way, winds will be under 10 kts until virga showers form after 20Z. Then gusty winds to 25 kt from any direction are possible. For now, we will handle the potential from gusty winds from weak convection with a tempo group. Rain is not expected to reach the ground at near any of the terminals Monday afternoon.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 657 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Summer heat through most of this week, with a few 90 degree readings over the plains. Breezy but a little cooler Tuesday.
- Chance of showers and storms for Monday night
- Return to more normal temperatures and a chance of storms towards next weekend
UPDATE
Issued at 657 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Latest radar and satellite imagery shows a QLCS moving across NE/KS, bending back to the SW into extreme eastern Colorado along I-70 in Kit Carson County. Weak showers have redeveloped in the post-convective airmass across the northeast corner of Colorado. The post-convective airmass is quite cool, with temperatures in the 60s across northeast Colorado and dry with dewpoints in the 30s, and thus stable enough that no further thunderstorms are expected across the plains. We cancelled the severe thunderstorm watch as a result. However, despite the dry air in place, there is still enough instability that a few showers are possible, especially across the northern mountains and the Palmer Divide through about 10 PM. We don't expect any further showers after 10 PM across the area. Though a few isolated thunderstorms will continue across the Front Range mountains through 10PM, the main impacts from any showers should be gusty winds.
In the wake of the convection, northern Colorado, especially closest to Wyoming across Larimer and Weld Counties, continues to see strong north winds via evaporative cooling. These winds may gust over 40 mph until 9 PM. The forecast has been updated to reflect the latest trends in temperature, wind, and PoP.
SHORT TERM /Through Monday/
Issued at 231 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Lift from the wave tracking across the region is producing strong to severe thunderstorms over southern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Additional thunderstorms extend west-southwest into north central Colorado. As these storms progress eastward, they will encounter a more moist and unstable airmass. MLCAPE has climbed to 1000-2000J/kg over the northeast plains and as storms move into and/or form over the area, they should become severe with large hail (tennis ball size) and damaging winds. Easterly winds are prevailing across much of northeast Colorado and are helping to retain low level moisture. Earlier model runs showed dry gusty west winds for most of the area and not these northeast winds, thus forecast confidence is on the low side and expect convection a little more south. The 18Z NAM shows 400-800 J/kg with upper 30s dew points, so we could see some stronger storms as far south of I-70. By mid to late evening, expect the storms to progress east of the area with dry conditions then in place for the night.
For Monday, weak ridging in the westerly flow will prevail. It will be a warm day with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s across northeast Colorado. With dew points in the 30s and CAPE less than 300 J/kg, expect dry conditions, though there should be high-based cumulus clouds with virga and perhaps dry microbursts.
Better chance for showers and storms will come Monday night as a short wave trough tracks across the region.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Models have a weak upper trough move across the CWA Monday night into Tuesday morning. This feature looks a bit stronger than it did yesterday. The QG fields show weak upward vertical velocity for the CWA Monday night, then weak downward motion Tuesday.
There is neutral energy progged Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The low level pressure and wind fields show downsloping surface winds to dominate both Tuesday and Wednesday, with drainage patterns during the nights.
For moisture, precipitable water values are in the 0.50 to 1.10 inch range over the CWA Monday night. CAPE is just fair Monday evening, and mainly just over the eastern half of the plains. The northern half of the CWA will have the highest pops, with 30-50%s in the mountains and 30-40%s over the northeast corner. For Tuesday through Wednesday night, moisture dries out and there is no CAPE progged. Will keep those periods dry. Of note, cross sections show a bit of a mountain wave set-up later Monday night into Tuesday after the upper trough passes, so I will make sure to beef-up the downsloping winds a bit along and east of the divide in the mountains and foothills.
For temperatures, Tuesday's highs are a tad cooler than Monday's, but Wedensday's highs are 1-4 C warmer. So "now" it looks like the first Denver 90 degree F reading will be on Wednesday?
For that later days, Thursday through Sunday, models have upper ridging in control of Thursday's weather. By Friday, continuing through the weekend, the upper ridge gets pushed a bit west, at least enough to allow for cooler air to get into the CWA
Precipitable water values and surface dew points are pretty high.
Instability is decent too. Scattered pops seem reasonable; perhaps even higher, but that is still quite a few days away. Temperatures could cool to below seasonal normals for highs on Saturday and Sunday.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday/
Issued at 614 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
VFR conditions through Monday. There is a huge line of storms exiting Colorado to the east. At the terminals, convective potential is essentially 0 for the remainder of the evening. Weak showers along the Wyoming border continue to generate strong north winds to the north of the terminals. Another gust front from the north is not out of the question, but if one occurs it would just prolong the north winds this evening. From now until about 02Z, north winds should weaken, gusting 25-30 kts now, down to 10-20 kt by 02Z. By 06-08Z, drainage winds out of the SSW should go 8-12 kts all night long, becoming WSW after 14Z. Wind direction might be a challenge from midday to the afternoon hours, as some guidance has WNW winds, others an east wind. Either way, winds will be under 10 kts until virga showers form after 20Z. Then gusty winds to 25 kt from any direction are possible. For now, we will handle the potential from gusty winds from weak convection with a tempo group. Rain is not expected to reach the ground at near any of the terminals Monday afternoon.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Pueblo, CO,
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