Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 9:24 PM Moonrise 2:10 AM   Moonset 2:46 PM

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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 357 Am Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
Today - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Light winds. Slight chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - Light winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday night - Light winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 010755 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 355 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Threat for mostly light rain showers later today and tonight.

- Chances for showers with possible thunderstorms Tuesday

- Cooler temperatures and a wet patter likely for the end of the work week

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 352 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Apex of sharp mid level trough axis centered south to north across Lake Huron early this morning...resulting in dry conditions across northern Michigan. Active weather remains displaced well to our west and southwest, the former driven by decaying cold front and shearing mid level trough axis...with the latter a product of a convective agitated shortwave trough and its attendant weak surface reflection.

Ridge axis will continue to move east into tonight, allowing upstream waves to move into the Great Lakes region...bringing a shower threat along with them.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Cloud/temperature trends and addressing shower potential.

Details:

Upstream cold front expected to wash out on its journey into the northern Great Lakes this morning as parent mid level trough continues to shear off to the northeast. Convectively agitated wave to our southwest continues to move off to the northeast, gradually losing some definition as it runs into retreating ridge axis.
Primary moisture advection/forced moisture convergence largely remains centered with that southern wave, with moisture profiles steadily thinning along that decaying cold front. Corridor of enhanced moisture convergence/isentropic ascent looks to target the southeast third of our area...with better juxtaposition of moisture and deep layer forcing expected to remain across the southern Great Lakes later today into this evening
Upshot to the above
expect dry conditions this morning to give way to an increasing shower threat later this afternoon into tonight...again with best shower coverage expected across the southeast third of the area.
Instability remains limited at best, so not expecting much in the way of any thunder threat. Highs today ranging through the 70s, with lows tonight in the lower to middle 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 352 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: An upper level short wave will exit the state as it continues east Sunday. Rain chances will diminish through Sunday morning. Surface high pressure builds in through Sunday, keeping winds near the surface light and squashing any chances for afternoon convective showers. MUCAPE of around a few hundred j/kg max could linger near Saginaw Bay in the afternoon hours, however chances remain low for anything to come from that.
Upper level ridging will breifly move overhead Monday, leading to afternoon temperatures warming to around 5 to 10 degrees above average through Tuesday. Winds will turn south to southeasterly Monday afternoon as the next upper level wave and surface boundary approach the Great Lakes Region. Winds will be breezy at times, but on the lighter side as the surface low will reach up into northern Ontario (most ECMWF and GFS ensemble members). More moisture and rain chances will move in Monday night into Tuesday. At this time, global deterministic and ensemble guidance has a decent spread on what happens next. The leading solution is to deepen an area of lower heights over Manitoba CA and extend a wave down into the Great Lakes Region Wednesday. This solution would likely harbor some instability with widespread rain chances most of Wednesday. Global deterministic models coverage Thursday, closing the upper low off over southern Ontario CA. Cooler temperatures, clouds and rain would linger through the end of the work week with this solution.
Ensembles paint a different story, showing larger spread in solutions.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: There is some uncertainty with storm chances Tuesday afternoon. Various deterministic models still resolve the details of upper level support differently, with some (like the GFS) quickly deepening a shortwave over southern MN late Tuesday. This additional amplification to the flow would tighten gradients aloft, adding to possible dynamics as well as lowering heights (and cooling temps) aloft. All of this resulting in more instabilty to work with Tuesday afternoon. This could result in widespread rain and clouds with embedded minor thunderstorms in a few spots. The other scenario would be that more of the forcing remains to our north and west, resulting in mostly cloud cover with some light rain.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Large area of strong high pressure currently centered over much of the Eastern US will push eastward off of the Atlantic Coast over the next 24 hours. An upstream cold front will push into the Western Great Lakes region on Saturday...bringing a chance of showers to Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan by Saturday evening. Light southerly winds overnight will strengthen to around 10 kts on Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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