Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 12:51 PM   Moonset 12:40 AM

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GMZ657 Expires:202406150300;;003392 Fzus52 Kmfl 141401 Cwfmfl
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service miami fl 1000 am edt Fri jun 14 2024
atlantic coastal waters from jupiter inlet to ocean reef out to 60 nm and gulf coastal waters from east cape sable to chokoloskee out 20 nm and chokoloskee to bonita beach out 60 nm - .including the waters of biscayne bay and lake okeechobee.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz656-657-676-150300- coastal waters from chokoloskee to bonita beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from east cape sable to chokoloskee fl out 20 nm- waters from chokoloskee to bonita beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- 1000 am edt Fri jun 14 2024
Rest of today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers late in the evening. A chance of tstms through the night. Showers likely after midnight. Sat - S sw winds 5 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers and tstms. Sat night - E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 1 to 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 foot at 3 seconds and sw 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of tstms. Showers likely. Sun night - E ne winds 5 to 10 kt near shore - . Except E ne 10 to 15 kt well offshore. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 1 to 2 ft well offshore. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 3 seconds and sw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Mon - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore - .except E 10 to 15 kt well offshore. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.Mon night - E winds 10 to 15 kt near shore - .except E 15 to 20 kt well offshore. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Tstms likely late in the evening. Showers likely through the night. A chance of tstms after midnight. Tue - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore - .except E 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.

GMZ600 939 Am Cdt Fri Jun 14 2024
Synopsis - A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow prevails through Saturday, with an offshore flow at night into the morning hours and a mostly onshore flow in the afternoon and early evening hours. A light to moderate southeasterly flow is established by Sunday and strengthens on Monday.

FXUS62 KMFL 141455 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1055 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 1034 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

While a frontal boundary remains draped across central Florida, the plume of enhanced moisture which sat over South FL for the past couple of days has shifted southward this morning, with the main bulk of it now sitting over the FL Straits and the Keys. At the same time, drier mid-level air has filtered in over the area as shown by the ACARS and 12Z MFL soundings. As a result, much of the convection early this morning has been confined to the FL Keys/Straits and southern portions of the CWA

This will be the prevailing pattern of behavior for the rest of the day as additional showers and thunderstorms drift in from the Gulf waters and move across Monroe and Miami-Dade counties.
Coverage looks to be more scattered this afternoon, but increased daytime heating as a result of decreased cloud coverage could destabilize the atmosphere enough to support thunderstorm development and heavy downpours. Guidance suggests some areas could see between 1-2" of rain, with locally higher 2-4" possible through the day, which could trigger concerns for flash flooding especially for areas still experiencing residual flooding and areas that received several inches of rain over the past several days. With this in mind, kept PoPs in the 50-60% range, with chances for thunder capped at 50%.

High temperatures could reach the upper 80s areas across the northern CWA where cloud coverage will be most limited, with temperatures further south where the rain chances are maximized reaching the mid 80s.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The mid level shortwave trough does not move much today and remains over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as well as South Florida. At the surface, an area of low pressure will push further northeastward in the western Atlantic off of the Carolina Coastline. This will allow for a moisture rich southwesterly wind flow to remain in place through today. Deep tropical moisture will continue to funnel into the region during this time. With the mid level trough in place, this will provide enough lift an instability once again to support more rounds of showers and thunderstorms as the day progresses. With the area of low pressure pulling away from the region, the latest hi- res guidance shows the focus of convection over the southern third of the region as the moisture tail associated with the low shifts southward. Convection coverage will still be high over the region especially across southern areas this afternoon, however, it will not be as widespread as it has been over the past several days especially across the Lake Okeechobee region. In any event, with the abundance of tropical moisture still remaining in place, heavy downpours will still be possible with showers and thunderstorms that push through the region. With the possibility of multiple rounds of heavy downpours setting up once again in already saturated areas as well as locations with ongoing flooding, there remains the potential for additional significant flooding to develop especially along and south of Alligator Alley. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will remain possible today with localized higher amounts possible especially across the southern areas. Because of this, the Flood Watch will remain in effect across all of South Florida through this evening.

Heading into Saturday, the mid level trough axis will remain near the region throughout most of the day and not move very much during this time frame. At the surface, while the area of low pressure will move further away to the northeast in the western Atlantic, South Florida will still be close enough to the moisture tail to support higher end chances of showers and thunderstorms. The latest guidance still shows PWAT values ranging between 2.0 and 2.3 inches throughout the day on Saturday. This is more than enough moisture to support shower and thunderstorm development as the day progresses. The highest chances will remain in the afternoon hours and heavy downpours will still be possible with the strongest thunderstorms. This would create the potential for additional flooding concerns depending on where the stronger storms set up.
This will continue to be monitored as the day progresses. High temperatures today and Saturday will generally remain in the mid to upper 80s across most areas.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

This weekend: An upper level trough will still be the dominant synoptic feature over the area and it will come into phase with an amplifying trough over the eastern United States and Canada. As the surface low off the Southeast United States moves to the northeast, surface flow across South Florida will become easterly by Sunday afternoon which will be the start of a return to normalcy. Modeled PWATs will still remain at or above 2 inches Saturday and Sunday, which is at or above the 90th percentile for this time of year. It is possible we remain in the 'moisture tail' of the surface low through the weekend, with the most enhanced moisture draped across far southern portions of the area. Showers and storms are likely each day through the weekend before drier air finally begins to filter across the area on Monday. As the low continues to push further and further away from South Florida, the coverage of showers and storms is not expected to be as widespread or numerous as what we experienced earlier this week. Still, given the extremely wet conditions this week, the Flood Watch may need to be extended into the weekend.

Early next week: Surface high pressure will build across the region again late Sunday into Monday which should return us to a more typical summertime easterly regime. This will allow the eastern sea breeze to progress relatively far inland and keep the best chances for showers and storms across interior South Florida and Southwest Florida each afternoon.

Highs through the period will be in the upper 80s with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s. With the return of the easterly regime, Southwest Florida will experience slightly warmer

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Generally VFR conditions through the morning hours. Scattered SHRA/TSRA could lead to sub-VFR conditions this afternoon, but confidence is too low as of this cycle to include TEMPOs in the forecast. Light and variable winds will become more southwesterly this morning.

MARINE
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A moderate to fresh southwesterly wind flow will remain in place across the local waters through today. These winds will become gentle to moderate for the upcoming weekend and they will gradually shift and become east northeasterly on Sunday. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the upcoming weekend. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will still be possible today and into the upcoming weekend. Winds and waves may be locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 86 77 86 78 / 60 40 60 30 West Kendall 86 74 88 75 / 60 30 60 30 Opa-Locka 87 76 89 78 / 60 40 60 20 Homestead 85 76 87 77 / 60 30 50 30 Fort Lauderdale 86 77 85 78 / 60 40 60 30 N Ft Lauderdale 87 77 86 78 / 60 40 60 30 Pembroke Pines 88 77 89 78 / 60 40 60 20 West Palm Beach 88 75 87 76 / 60 40 60 20 Boca Raton 87 76 87 78 / 60 40 60 30 Naples 87 78 87 77 / 50 60 60 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Chatham River entrance
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Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 01:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:04 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:10 AM EDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:35 PM EDT     1.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:59 PM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chatham River entrance, Florida, Tide feet

Chokoloskee
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 01:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:19 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:20 AM EDT     2.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:20 PM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:04 PM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chokoloskee, Florida, Tide feet

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