Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:01 AM   Moonset 4:06 PM

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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 329 Am Cdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Today - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers. Tonight - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 329 Am Cdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
weak high pressure builds in from the west which will result in continued south to southeast winds around 10 knots across the coastal waters. Showers and Thunderstorms will increase in coverage somewhat today. Any stronger Thunderstorms could produce gusts up to gales and large hail.

FXUS64 KLIX 021132 AAA AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 632 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

NEW AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The somewhat active pattern continues into Sunday with the region remaining under a northwesterly flow aloft on the northeast side of a rather strong H5 ridge centered over Mexico. Within this flow (very reminiscent of summer) some rather robust impulses have been sliding through the region and this should continue again today and into the start of the new workweek. Initially, this morning an impulse has helped develop some isolated but rather strong T'storms just west of the Atchafalaya. These storms are elevated in nature given the LCH and LIX 00z RAOBs depicting low level inversions at the surface. Still, a strong wind gust, heavy rain and hail (some could be large) will be possible with this activity as it moves southeast. The best potential at the moment early this morning seems to be along and west of the Mississippi River or more specifically Terrebonne Parish and the near shore gulf waters/Terrebonne Bay.

As this initial short wave continues downstream there may be a bit of a break later this morning. This break will allow conditions to destabilize and allow for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop once again as yet another ripple within the flow moves overhead. CAMs are NOT performing the greatest at the moment so we did do a broad brush with POPs today and tried to get timing down, but at this juncture POPs are based on timing of the individual impulses as well as the diurnal cycle. With cloudiness around, insolation looks to be limited, but a break in showers/convection with the strong sun angle will still provide enough surface heating to destabilize. Since CAMs are struggling, followed the globals lead for both QPF/POPs generally across the board through today. By Monday, we'll need to watch a potential MCS to our northwest, however, guidance isn't very aggressive at least not for our area. The synoptic pattern begins a very subtle change allowing for the more intense mid level shortwave to become negatively tilted and shifts the upper flow to a more zonal flow keeping most of this activity to the north. Still, with very subtle ripples within this flow and again diurnal processes, rain chances are NOT zero, but should be quite a bit lower than today with generally 20/30 POPs across the board. Consequently, temperatures begin to rebound with MaxTs approaching the 90F mark once again. (Frye)

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A bit less active going into the long term as the zonal mid and upper level flow continues across the region. Upper level ridging will slide eastward across more of the central Gulf. With the lower POPs and less cloudiness, temperatures will be increasing into the 90s for most of the CWFA. By Wednesday, a surface front and parent trough begin to slide southward from the Missouri Ozarks and eventually winding up across the mid south. The zonal flow quickly evolves by Wednesday and Thursday back to a northerly flow. This will help bring the front southward toward the northeast Gulf. With the upper trough moving south and eastward, most of the best upper level support will miss our region to the east, but the eastern third of the CWFA will have a shot of showers/convection. As this first frontal boundary moves south and east, surface high pressure develops/centers across the northern Gulf. This will limit winds and overall will suppress rain chances. Again, consequently, strong insolation will help max temps climb into the 90s just about everywhere.

By Friday, a second front will be sliding southward from the Ohio/TN River Valleys. Globals are a bit (or a lot) off with the GFS being the slower of the solutions with the front draped across our area a full 24 hours or more after the ECM. So, needless to say confidence isn't quite high in the timing. But, with the broad- scale trough setting up across the east and the front making it this far south, think rain chances will be there and should gradually increase in time as confidence in when and exactly where the better support will be aloft going into the start of next weekend. (Frye)

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Unfortunately, short fused AMDs may be necessary through this cycle, especially during the day today as timing of convection is still a bit questionable. Made an attempt to use TEMPOs vs VCs to try to hammer down timing with this mornings convection having the best confidence. In the heaviest convection expect brief IFR drops, otherwise VFR outside of convection will continue to be possible. Overnight tonight, convection should decrease with a few lingering -SHRAs around. Cannot rule out CIG/VIS drops, especially for MCB by the end of this cycle. (Frye)

MARINE
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The main concerns going into the start of the new workweek and beyond will be the potential for convection across the local waters. In and around the local Gulf Waters and tidal lakes.
Surface winds eventually shift to a more southerly direction and will generally range between light to moderate (some winds up to 15kts not out of the realm of possibility Tue/Wed), but high pressure builds right back across the Gulf, which should help relax surface winds and seas. Again, higher winds and seas can be anticipated in convection. (Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 82 68 87 70 / 50 10 20 10 BTR 87 73 91 74 / 60 10 20 0 ASD 85 72 89 74 / 50 10 20 0 MSY 84 75 89 76 / 50 20 20 0 GPT 85 73 87 75 / 50 20 10 0 PQL 85 71 89 72 / 50 20 10 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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