Sunrise 5:18 AM   Sunset 9:10 PM Moonrise 7:06 AM   Moonset 11:25 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 205 Pm Pdt Sun Jun 9 2024
In the main channel -
General seas - 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft Monday evening.
First ebb - Ebb current of 2.78 kt at 755 pm Sunday. Seas to 8 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 5.39 kt at 754 am Monday. Seas to 6 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 2.7 kt at 844 pm Monday. Seas to 5 ft.

PZZ200 205 Pm Pdt Sun Jun 9 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pressure will strengthen over the coastal waters Sunday evening into Monday morning before a weak cool front moves through early Tuesday morning. High pressure returns Wednesday with gusty north winds developing.

FXUS66 KPQR 092133 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 232 PM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024

SYNOPSIS
Generally pleasant and benign weather is on tap for the next few days. The weak upper trough responsible for areas of drizzle along the coast earlier today will move east across the Cascades tonight. High pressure will follow with warm temperatures and plenty of sunshine for Monday. Another weak system may clip mainly the north coast with drizzle or light rain Tuesday, then high pressure brings a return to warmer and drier weather Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures may dip below normal next weekend as most forecast models bring an upper trough onshore - potentially strong enough to bring more widespread rain to the region.

SHORT TERM
Now through Wednesday...A weak upper trough deepened the marine layer enough for some measurable drizzle along the coast north of Manzanita this morning. The ASOS at Astoria airport reported the most precip with 0.05". Based on area webcams and the latest reports, it appears the drizzle has mostly come to an end. The marine layer should become shallower as the upper trough moves east of the Cascades and higher pressure in the mid-levels assists subsidence.
The coast should see stratus either persist or return overnight, but the inland intrusion should be considerably less robust Monday morning. Any morning clouds inland will quickly give way to sunshine and a warm afternoon. With 850 mb temps likely to reach +10 to +12 deg C by Monday afternoon, most of our interior lowlands should climb into the 80s. NBM probabilistic guidance tends to agree with general 40-70% chances of reaching 80 deg F in the Willamette and Hood River Valleys Monday afternoon. A greater northerly component to the low-level flow should lead to drier conditions as well.

The NE Pacific remains more active than usual for June, and this will continue to be the case Monday night/early Tuesday as another upper trough moves into British Columbia, pushing the tail end of its cold front into the Pac NW. This looks like a similar situation as today, where mainly north coastal zones may get brushed with some drizzle or light rain. PoPs remain low, except perhaps in the Willapa Hills where most guidance has a little QPF Tuesday morning. High pressure quickly returns Tuesday afternoon, drying things out and leading to a fairly seasonable and pleasant day Wednesday. Weagle

LONG TERM
Thursday through Sunday...By Thursday, ensemble members agree on shortwave ridging over the region, supporting drier and warmer conditions. Our forecast undercuts NBM MinRH both Wednesday and Thursday as northerly flow should cause dewpoints to dip well into the 40s or possibly even the 30s as temperatures warm up under the upper ridge. Essentially, our forecast used a MOS blend for dewpoints then calculated the MinRH for both days. By Friday, the upper ridge begins to shift eastward as another trough near the Gulf of Alaska dips southward toward the Pacific Northwest. By Saturday, most ensemble members (65%) agree on troughing entering the region with below-average 500 mb heights. If this scenario pans out, then we would see increasing chances for widespread precipitation along with potentially below average temperatures. For now, the NBM's 15-45% chance of PoPs across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington at the end of the week look reasonable. -Alviz/Weagle

AVIATION
At 21z Sunday, satellite and surface weather observations depicted mostly clear skies across the area. The exception was along and near the coast from KONP to KAST where a marine stratus deck continued impacting flight conditions. Cigs were ranging between 400-700 ft at KONP and 1000-1500 ft at KAST.

The central OR coast (including KONP) will likely see a very brief improvement to VFR conditions by 22z Sunday before a marine stratus deck redevelops towards 01z Monday. Chances for any substantial clearing at KAST are much lower (<25%) where MVFR cigs are likely to continue through the day before lowering to IFR Saturday night. Periods of light drizzle will also be possible at KAST Monday morning, similar to what was observed Sunday morning.

Models still show a chance for an MVFR stratus deck to develop near the mouth of the Columbia River Gorge and backbuild into KTTD and KPDX towards 12z Monday. Probabilities for this to occur have increased to nearly 50% and forecast confidence has increased from low to medium. As such, have decided to include broken cigs around 1800-1900 ft at KTTD and KPDX beginning at 12z.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Expect VFR flight conditions for the rest of the day and evening. However, probabilities for MVFR cigs around 2000 ft have increased Saturday night, peaking near 50% towards 12z Sunday. This stratus deck will likely develop over/near KTTD first before quickly backbuilding westward towards KPDX. Expect northwest surface winds between 5-10 kt Sunday afternoon/early evening with light and variable winds Sunday night/Monday morning.
-TK

MARINE
Buoy observations from early Sunday afternoon showed significant wave heights at 9 to 10 ft with a dominant wave period around 13 seconds. This is a foot or two higher than what the latest model guidance suggests. As such, the forecast has been updated to increase wave heights for the rest of Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening to better reflect observations. These observations also meet criteria for a marginal small craft advisory. In addition, northerly winds were gusting up to 20 kt.
Therefore have decided to issue a small craft advisory for the inner and outer waters through 11 PM Sunday. Seas should fall back below 10 ft thereafter as high pressure strengthens and northerly winds weaken. High pressure will strengthen even more Monday morning, bringing seas down to 4 to 6 ft.

Still expecting a weak cool front to move eastward over the coastal waters early Tuesday morning, bringing a brief shift to southerly winds. This front looks to be weak, only producing wind gusts up to 15-20 kt. That said, westerly swell will increase behind the frontal passage Tuesday afternoon/evening, likely pushing seas back up to 9 to 10 ft and producing marginal small craft advisory conditions.

Small craft advisory conditions become even more likely on Wednesday as a thermal trough deepens along the south Oregon coast and helps increase northerly winds over the waters. Currently expecting wind gusts up to 25-30 kt on Wednesday (95% chance). In fact, cannot completely rule out marginal gale force gusts up to 35 kt over the southern waters (40-60% chance). -TK

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ251>253-271>273.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Naselle River
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:03 AM PDT     10.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:05 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:02 AM PDT     -1.92 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:47 PM PDT     8.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:06 PM PDT     3.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Naselle River, 4 miles above swing bridge, Willapa Bay, Washington, Tide feet

Paradise Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:54 AM PDT     9.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:05 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:41 AM PDT     -1.83 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:38 PM PDT     8.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:07 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:45 PM PDT     3.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paradise Point, Long Island, Willapa Bay, Washington, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Langley,Hill/Gray,Harbor,WA