Sunrise 5:15 AM   Sunset 8:57 PM Moonrise 1:34 AM   Moonset 2:11 PM

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LSZ147 Expires:202310052341;;564170 Fzus73 Kdlh 052332 Mwsdlh
marine weather statement national weather service duluth mn 632 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
lsz121-147-052341- /o.can.kdlh.ma.w.0035.000000t0000z-231005t2345z/ 632 pm cdt Thu oct 5 2023
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Chequamegon bay-bayfield to oak point wi - . Sand island to bayfield wi - .
the showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
lat - .lon 4673 9060 4674 9068 4687 9063 4695 9044 4713 9035 4714 9013 4672 9040 time - .mot - .loc 2331z 263deg 31kt 4709 9022 4693 9031 4678 9056

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 010527 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1227 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms expected to build in this afternoon and evening, primarily over Northwest Wisconsin. Showers depart through Saturday morning.

- More potent system arrives Sunday afternoon/evening in Monday, bringing an isolated chance of a severe storm and flash flooding.

- Temperatures continue to be around to slightly above normal.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A lethargic cold front continues to work across the Northland today, leading to areas of clouds and light rain showers primarily over Northwest Wisconsin, and a secondary area over the Brainerd Lakes.
With afternoon heating we should see some redevelopment in those two areas, leading to more widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms. There is still some uncertainty on just how far west any showers will be able to develop with variances amongst CAM guidance. Because of much drier air at the surface over much of north-central and northeast Minnesota, any showers that do develop may struggle to moisten the column enough for any appreciable rain.
Over NW WI however, a much more moisture rich environment will stick around along the cold front, allowing for ample shower redevelopment, with some embedded thunderstorms. Some training could lead to up to an inch falling over portions of Sawyer, Ashland, Iron, and Price Counties by midday Saturday. Much of the area should see rain-free conditions by tomorrow morning, but some cloudiness and isolated showers may stick around the tip of MN Arrowhead and eastern portions of NW WI through Saturday afternoon.

A shortwave is still expected to move across the Dakotas and into northern Minnesota Sunday afternoon into Monday. There has been a northward and westward shift with placement of the attending surface low pressure, which pulls the best parameter space for severe weather Sunday evening and overnight further out of the Northland.
We may find ourselves in a warm sector Sunday, leading to some cloudiness and showers, as suggested by some deterministic guidance.
But the primary low pressure and attendant cold front are expected to sweep across the Northland overnight into Monday morning, bringing some stronger storms and a possible severe storm or two across the region. Should current timing trends continue, these storms would have little instability to work with, but would still benefit from the frontal forcing and up to 40knots bulk shear, along with some extra support form a LLJ. Ensembles continue to suggest a very moist environment, with PWATs of 1-2". Heavy rain is likely out of storms and showers that develop. There is still disagreement however on where exactly the heaviest rain in excess of 1" may fall.
Take your pick of ensemble members and nearly any city in the CWA could become the recipient of 1.5" if the solution was correct. Will continue to settle on a marginal chance for flash flooding across the Northland, with hopefully more agreement on potential hot spots as we get closer. Across the area, soil are saturated and streamflow are normal to far above normal, so any heavy rain could be impactful.

A breif lull into Tuesday before guidance continues to hone in on and agree on yet another stout shortwave that could pull up another round of moist air and some severe potential, should the timing and placement line up correctly. Will keep our eyes on this secondary disturbance for any severe or flash flooding risks.

Outside of rain chances, expected fairly seasonable to just above normal temperatures with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Rain showers continue overnight as a stalled out frontal boundary lingers over NW WI. Thunderstorms chances have quickly taper off this evening with no observed ltg in the past 2.5 hours. Rain will linger this longest over NW WI before tapering off by late morning.
Ceilings will also improve to VFR as the rain dissipates. A small cold front will move in from the northwest today and could generate some isolated showers and storms in the afternoon. Additionally, look for winds to swing to out of the west as the front passes.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Breezy southwest winds continue into Saturday, strongest in the afternoon with some gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible, particularly along the North Shore. Expect some showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight tonight, but no severe weather is anticipated. Winds turn from being light southwesterly Sunday morning to breezy northeasterly by Sunday afternoon, again with some 15-20 knot gusts possible, particularly near the head of the lake.
Overnight into Monday, expect widespread heavy rain showers and thunderstorms, some of which could bring strong gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours. Lingering moist air could lead to some marine dense fog Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

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