Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 3:23 PM   Moonset 1:59 AM

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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1001 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning - .
Rest of today - E ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: E ne 4 ft at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Tonight - E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 5 seconds and nw 1 foot at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Tue - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 5 seconds and N nw 1 foot at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue night - E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft. Wave detail: E 6 ft at 6 seconds and N nw 1 foot at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. A chance of showers and tstms. Wed - E ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft. Wave detail: E ne 5 ft at 6 seconds and N nw 2 ft at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. A chance of showers and tstms. Wed night and Thu - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 6 seconds and N nw 2 ft at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Thu night and Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1001 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
Synopsis -
building high pressure from the western north atlantic into florida will lead to moderate to fresh easterly winds across the local waters through the middle of the week. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will be possible each day this week across the area waters. Winds and waves could be locally higher and in and around showers and storms.
gulf stream hazards: seas building to 5 to 7 feet Tuesday night and Wednesday.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jun 13, 2024 at 12 utc - .
9 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 9 nautical miles east of port everglades. 10 nautical miles northeast of lake worth. 13 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 171310 AAA AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 910 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 857 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A band of showers on the leading edge of a westward moving low- mid level shortwave trough will continue to move onshore primarily across Miami-Dade County this morning, then over the Everglades and portions of Collier County this afternoon. Drier air depicted in derived GOES Total Precipitable Water data (values less than 1.5 inches) over the Bahamas this morning will move across the southern Florida peninsula area on the back side of the shortwave trough, leading to a decrease in precipitation from east to west as the day progresses. Rainfall amounts generally from a quarter to a third of an inch can be expected, with localized amounts of a half-inch or slightly higher. A few thunderstorms are also expected, mainly later this morning through the afternoon, with enough diurnal instability characterized by CAPE values around 2000 j/kg.

Forecast PoPs have been updated through early afternoon to reflect higher rain chances across Miami-Dade County, Mainland Monroe, and Collier counties.

Breezy east winds today will lead to a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic beaches today (and likely for most of the week).

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

As we move into the new week, the ridging and surface high to our north will expand and strengthen. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the southern FL Peninsula leading to breezy easterly winds in the region as we move into the day, Monday. Additionally, this will usher some drier air in the mid-levels which will bring a decrease in PWAT values (~1.2-1.6). There is potential for isolated to scattered showers (20%) across the eastern coast late this morning, before movement inland and to the Gulf as the easterly winds strengthen throughout the day. The best chance for showers, and an isolated thunderstorm, will be across the interior and SW Florida (30-40%). Tuesday will be heavily influenced by high pressure's influence, leading to the drier air and strong easterly winds all day Tuesday. The potential for light showers and an isolated thunderstorm will continue during the day with the best chance for rain to occur near the coast lines and over the open waters.

During the short term period, temperatures will follow a typical easterly regime, ranging from the upper 80s near the immediate east coast, to the low to mid-90s over the interior and southwest Florida.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the middle to the end of the week, a strong mid to upper level ridge will remain parked over the Mid-Atlantic states. At the same time, a mid level inverted trough will try to close off into a low in the western Atlantic as it moves west northwestward. At the surface, a broad area of low pressure may try to develop north of the Bahamas as it pushes west northwestward. The National Hurricane Center currently gives this disturbance a 30 percent chance of development as it moves towards the Southeastern coast.

Forecast uncertainty remains very high for this part of the forecast as the mid level ridge and surface high pressure centered off to the north will play an important role in steering this disturbance. The guidance still remains in disagreement as far as where this system will track and if it actually develops or not. Regardless of development, deep layer tropical moisture will begin to spread back into the region beginning on Wednesday and lasting through the end of the week. This will increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide during this time frame. While the exact details still remain very uncertain due to differences in guidance, the potential for heavy downpours for the middle to the end of the week will lead to the potential for localized flooding concerns to return to portions of South Florida. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures for the middle to the end of the week will generally remain in the upper 80s across the east coast to the lower 90s across Southwest Florida.

Heading into the upcoming weekend, uncertainty will still remain very high as this is towards the end of the forecast period and will remain dependent on the track and timing of the tropical disturbance in the western Atlantic. Chances of showers and thunderstorms may still remain elevated during this time frame with the potential for deep tropical moisture to remain over the region. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures for the weekend will remain in the upper 80s along the east coast to lower 90s across the interior sections.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Scattered SHRA moving onshore SE Florida in moderate E winds will likely lead to brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities for some east coast TAF sites, with short-duration TEMPO groups possibly required. Most of the SHRA will shift to interior and SW Florida after 18z, possibly approaching KAPF during this time frame. TSRA chances are too low to mention in TAFs at this time. Winds 080-090 degrees near 15 knots with gusts over 20 knots through about 00z.

MARINE
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Moderate easterly wind flow across the local waters become moderate to fresh as we head into the start of the new week. Easterly wind flow will continue to strengthen heading into the middle of the week which could lead to the potential for hazardous marine conditions during this time frame across the Atlantic and Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Atlantic Waters today through Tuesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day. Winds and seas could be locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms.

BEACHES
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A high risk of rip currents is in effect for the Atlantic coast beaches through mid-week due to onshore easterly flow. The risk remains low for the Gulf beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 89 79 88 80 / 40 20 40 50 West Kendall 91 76 90 77 / 30 20 40 40 Opa-Locka 89 79 90 79 / 40 20 40 50 Homestead 89 79 89 79 / 30 20 40 40 Fort Lauderdale 88 80 87 80 / 20 20 40 50 N Ft Lauderdale 89 79 87 79 / 20 20 40 50 Pembroke Pines 89 80 91 80 / 30 20 40 50 West Palm Beach 90 78 88 77 / 20 20 50 50 Boca Raton 90 79 88 79 / 20 20 40 50 Naples 94 76 94 77 / 40 10 40 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.

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Ocean Ridge
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Mon -- 01:30 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:50 AM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:47 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:41 PM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ocean Ridge, ICWW, Florida, Tide feet

Lake Worth Pier
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Mon -- 02:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:52 AM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:09 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:42 PM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:53 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lake Worth Pier, Florida, Tide feet

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