Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 3:10 AM   Moonset 5:26 PM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 319 Pm Edt Mon Jun 3 2024
Tonight - E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 2 seconds. Wed - S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Showers likely with chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening. Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.Fri night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Sat - W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sat night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 319 Pm Edt Mon Jun 3 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure gradually builds down from new england through Wednesday, then moves into the atlantic Wednesday night. A series of frontal system then approaches from the west Thursday through next weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 032346 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 746 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure gradually builds down from New England through Wednesday, then moves into the Atlantic Wednesday night. A series of frontal system then approaches from the west Thursday through next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Only made minor changes to hourly temperatures, dew points, and winds, for the current conditions and trends into late this evening.

High pressure builds into the area from the north tonight. A weak SE-E flow is expected later tonight. Some of the guidance is hinting at some stratus moving into the area off the ocean waters, mainly along the coast. Not sure how much, if any cloud cover we see. It may be hard to get the clouds with the high building in from the south. Looks like the better chance will be Tuesday night. Lows tonight will range from the middle 50s to middle 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Ridging aloft continues to shift east on Tuesday and Wednesday with surface high pressure situated off to the north.

Tuesday will be dry with high pressure remaining off the New England coast. An onshore flow will keep coastal locales a bit cooler than recent days, with highs likely in the low to mid 70s during the afternoon. Away from this influence, mainly the far interior and areas west of the Hudson River, lower 80s is where temperatures top out.

Conditions remain dry Tuesday night, however with the second night of onshore flow, expect a better chance of stratus and/or fog to develop. Lows will be in the 50s and lower 60s.

High pressure starts to shift eastward Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile, a vigorous shortwave rounding the base of a large upper low over Central Canada will move into the Midwest. This will bring an end to the relatively quiet pattern that has been in place. Rain chances increase Wednesday afternoon and evening with the approach of an associated warm front from the south and west. While the bulk of the day appears dry, global ensembles have trended a bit quicker with this WAA, and will need to continue to monitor these trends. It's just as possible however any wet weather holds off until later Wednesday night.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be held down some by the increasing cloud cover and persistent onshore flow, with highs in the 70s to near 80 for most.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Main points

* Heavy showers and thunderstorms looking likely for Wednesday night into Thursday. Possibility for mainly minor flooding. See hydro section for more details.

* Periodic shower activity for Friday and into upcoming weekend.
Possible thunderstorms at times as well.

* Temperatures will not depart much from normal values this time of year.

Synoptic pattern shows a transition from mid level ridge to a longwave mid level trough that eventually closes off. The mid level cutoff low then moves towards the local region towards the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. The base of the trough and its axis potentially get within the local region by Sunday night. This analysis is from the LREF grand ensemble.

Here is how the forecast changed compared to the previous forecast:

Temperatures no significant changes. Max temperature forecast lower 80s NYC and locations N&W Thursday and Friday. Min temperatures forecast mid 50s to around 60 for much of area Friday night and Saturday night, lower 60s for NYC.

POPs trended up Wednesday night, overnight, now into likely NYC and locations N&W, overnight Wed night into early Thursday AM, 6-12Z Thursday, likely POPs all forecast region 12-18Z Thursday, just about entire area 18Z Thursday - 00Z Friday. Otherwise no significant changes.

Despite marginal elevated instability in the Thursday into Friday timeframe, there is potential for some low to mid level omega to aid in vertical lift, so that is why there are higher chances of thunderstorms and wanted to have higher than slight chance thunder.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure along the New England coast strengthens tonight and builds into the area by Tuesday morning. The center of the high will remain offshore of Cape Cod through Tuesday evening.

VFR. There is a chance that shallow low-level moisture moves in from the east overnight with the possibility of a short period of IFR/LIFR ceilings at the coastal terminals. However, confidence remains low and plan to keep out of the forecast at this time.

A weak S to SE flow remains into early this evening as sea breezes weaken and end. Winds likely become light and variable for a few hours before a light east flow develops late/toward Tuesday morning. Winds will then veer to the ESE during Tuesday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence of brief IFR/LIFR late tonight/early Tuesday morning at KJFK.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night: VFR. Chance of IFR/LIFR in low clouds and fog late.

Wednesday: VFR during the day. MVFR or lower possible late day into the night with chances of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the daytime hours.

Friday: Chance of MVFR with showers and possible thunderstorms.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through late week with seas on the ocean generally 3 ft or less.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through Wednesday.

With precipitable waters potentially approaching near 2 inches Wednesday night into Thursday, some showers and especially any thunderstorms could have heavy downpours. The potentially torrential rain could cause minor flooding in low lying, urban and poor drainage areas. With sufficient movement to showers and thunderstorms, would think much of the flooding potential would be minor.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The high tide cycle along the south shore bays has passed and no flooding was observed. The coastal flood statement has been cancelled for Southern Nassau. With high tides in the western Sound later this evening, the coastal flood statement remains in effect for Southern Westchester NY, Southern Fairfield CT until 12AM tonight.

Guidance all points to statement level events for the next few evenings as tides increase astronomically. Most locations need a 1/2 to a 1 foot to reach minor coastal flood benchmarks. The existing background anomaly looks to be sufficient enough to get some of the more vulnerable locations across western LI Sound and the south shore bays of LI right around these levels.
A few spots may also go 1 to 2 tenths above.

With the approach of a new moon this week, astronomical levels will be on the rise. With winds becoming more southerly and eventually southeasterly, this will allow for increasing surge this week. This could lead to a bit more coverage as the week hoes on.

There is a low rip current risk through Wednesday due to low seas on the ocean and winds mainly 10 kt or less.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Black Rock Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:04 AM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:08 AM EDT     6.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:15 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:28 PM EDT     8.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Black Rock Harbor entrance, Connecticut, Tide feet

Bridgeport
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:07 AM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:12 AM EDT     6.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:18 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:32 PM EDT     7.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bridgeport, Connecticut, Tide feet

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