Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Belle Fontaine, AL
June 16, 2024 6:29 AM CDT (11:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:48 AM Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:06 PM Moonset 2:00 AM |
GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay-southern Mobile Bay-mississippi Sound- 312 Am Cdt Sun Jun 16 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Showers with Thunderstorms likely.
Tonight - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A moderate chop. Thunderstorms likely. Showers.
Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. Choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Choppy. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. Choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday - East winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. Choppy. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 312 Am Cdt Sun Jun 16 2024
Synopsis - A light to moderate southeasterly flow will persist through the remainder of the weekend. A moderate to strong east to southeasterly flow is anticipated Monday through Wednesday, along with building seas. Small craft advisories may become necessary during the early to middle part of next week.
Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 160900 AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
The summer rainy season is about to kick it off this week as a rather active pattern sets up as early as this morning. The high pressure that has given us the heat and drier conditions this week will quickly translate east into the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a series of inverted troughs will work their way around the northern periphery of a larger gyre centered over central America.
This semi-persistent feature is know as the Central American Gyre and typically set up around this time of year and can be the spawning grounds for some early season tropical mischief. The good news is for our area that while a few weak systems could be possible in the coming weeks there are no signs that any of these areas of interest will impact us directly. The bad news is that we will be in a bit of a funnel of deep Gulf moisture that will setup between the Gyre and the large upper ridge to our east. In this channel of moisture, PWATS will range from 2 inches to as high as 2.5 inches or more. With this sort of moisture and pattern in place, its almost always a good bet on a rather soggy week.
Rain chances will begin this morning and only increase through the period. Current radar shows showers already developing over the marine waters and those are only expected to expand in coverage later this morning as they approach the coast. The best rain chances today will be along the coast and then expanding across southwestern Alabama and into southeastern Mississippi. Areas more east of I-65 will still see rain but could be more scattered in nature given the proximity to the upper ridge. Rain chances relax during the overnight hours as the first wave pushes through.
By Monday the next wave will enter the area bringing widely scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for rain will continue to be across southeastern Mississippi into coastal southwestern Alabama where better low level convergence will be present. The biggest issue will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall given the rather deep tropical moisture. Storms will be highly efficient in producing heavy rainfall; however, nebulous forcing, dry antecedent conditions and no true low level focus for storms will likely keep any flooding localized at least for now.
While some localized flooding cannot be ruled out, it will likely be confined to poor drainage areas and urban zones. Along with the increased rain chances, waves will be on the general increase leading to a HIGH risk of rip currents beginning today and eventually large breaking waves at the beaches leading to a high surf advisory. BB/03
SHORT TERM
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
An upper ridge centered mostly over the easternmost states builds into the forecast region which allows for progressively drier air to flow into much of the area, which tempers pops compared to the NEAR TERM period. Precipitable water values of initially around 2 inches Monday evening gradually trend through Tuesday night to 1.35-1.5 inches over much of the area, except for portions of southeast Mississippi and coastal Alabama which manage to hang on to the best deep layer moisture. A combination of a surface ridge strengthening over the mid Atlantic coast into the southeast states along with a western Gulf system tends to promote a mainly easterly flow over interior areas with an east to southeast flow near the coast. This sets up a modest low level convergent zone near the coast which along with a modest sea breeze aids in precipitation development. For Monday night and Tuesday night, will have slight chance to chance pops near the coast. For Tuesday, with daytime heating aiding development, have gone with chance pops for roughly the southern half of the area with lesser pops further inland. Lows Monday night and Tuesday night range from the lower 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s at the coast.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A High Risk of rip currents and a High Surf Advisory are in effect through the period. /29
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
An upper ridge over the region is deflected away from the area Thursday into Friday by an easterly wave which advances from near the Florida peninsula to across the eastern half of the Gulf along with the adjacent coastal areas. The sea breeze will support chance pops over much of the coastal counties and extreme southeast Mississippi on Wednesday and Thursday while further inland dry conditions are expected. It's possible that a surface low will develop with the easterly wave and progress across the region on Friday, but even if this does not occur the convective environment will become more favorable with the departure of the upper ridge along with much better deep layer moisture flowing into the area. For now have gone with chance to good chance pops for much of the area on Friday, but there is the potential for higher rain chances depending on how the pattern plays out. Plenty of deep layer moisture remains in place over the area on Saturday and have opted for chance to likely pops. A High Risk of rip currents and a High Surf Advisory will be in effect until 7 am Thursday morning. /29
MARINE
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
A light to moderate southeasterly flow will established today and strengthens as low pressure develops in the southwestern Gulf.
Seas are also expected to increase as we head into early next week. Small craft will need to exercise caution by Monday and conditions will likely exceed Small Craft Advisory criteria by the middle of the week. Conditions will also need to be monitored for potential gale conditions as the low strengthens. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the forecast.
BB/03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 88 74 88 74 87 74 89 73 / 80 40 70 40 50 30 40 20 Pensacola 89 77 90 78 89 77 89 75 / 80 40 70 40 50 40 40 20 Destin 87 77 90 78 89 77 90 75 / 70 30 60 40 40 40 30 30 Evergreen 93 72 92 71 91 70 91 69 / 60 20 40 20 20 10 10 10 Waynesboro 93 72 89 71 87 71 90 70 / 60 30 70 30 40 20 20 10 Camden 94 73 93 71 90 72 91 70 / 40 20 40 10 20 10 10 0 Crestview 92 72 93 71 93 71 93 69 / 70 20 40 20 30 20 20 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Thursday morning for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Thursday morning for FLZ202-204-206.
High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
The summer rainy season is about to kick it off this week as a rather active pattern sets up as early as this morning. The high pressure that has given us the heat and drier conditions this week will quickly translate east into the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a series of inverted troughs will work their way around the northern periphery of a larger gyre centered over central America.
This semi-persistent feature is know as the Central American Gyre and typically set up around this time of year and can be the spawning grounds for some early season tropical mischief. The good news is for our area that while a few weak systems could be possible in the coming weeks there are no signs that any of these areas of interest will impact us directly. The bad news is that we will be in a bit of a funnel of deep Gulf moisture that will setup between the Gyre and the large upper ridge to our east. In this channel of moisture, PWATS will range from 2 inches to as high as 2.5 inches or more. With this sort of moisture and pattern in place, its almost always a good bet on a rather soggy week.
Rain chances will begin this morning and only increase through the period. Current radar shows showers already developing over the marine waters and those are only expected to expand in coverage later this morning as they approach the coast. The best rain chances today will be along the coast and then expanding across southwestern Alabama and into southeastern Mississippi. Areas more east of I-65 will still see rain but could be more scattered in nature given the proximity to the upper ridge. Rain chances relax during the overnight hours as the first wave pushes through.
By Monday the next wave will enter the area bringing widely scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for rain will continue to be across southeastern Mississippi into coastal southwestern Alabama where better low level convergence will be present. The biggest issue will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall given the rather deep tropical moisture. Storms will be highly efficient in producing heavy rainfall; however, nebulous forcing, dry antecedent conditions and no true low level focus for storms will likely keep any flooding localized at least for now.
While some localized flooding cannot be ruled out, it will likely be confined to poor drainage areas and urban zones. Along with the increased rain chances, waves will be on the general increase leading to a HIGH risk of rip currents beginning today and eventually large breaking waves at the beaches leading to a high surf advisory. BB/03
SHORT TERM
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
An upper ridge centered mostly over the easternmost states builds into the forecast region which allows for progressively drier air to flow into much of the area, which tempers pops compared to the NEAR TERM period. Precipitable water values of initially around 2 inches Monday evening gradually trend through Tuesday night to 1.35-1.5 inches over much of the area, except for portions of southeast Mississippi and coastal Alabama which manage to hang on to the best deep layer moisture. A combination of a surface ridge strengthening over the mid Atlantic coast into the southeast states along with a western Gulf system tends to promote a mainly easterly flow over interior areas with an east to southeast flow near the coast. This sets up a modest low level convergent zone near the coast which along with a modest sea breeze aids in precipitation development. For Monday night and Tuesday night, will have slight chance to chance pops near the coast. For Tuesday, with daytime heating aiding development, have gone with chance pops for roughly the southern half of the area with lesser pops further inland. Lows Monday night and Tuesday night range from the lower 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s at the coast.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A High Risk of rip currents and a High Surf Advisory are in effect through the period. /29
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
An upper ridge over the region is deflected away from the area Thursday into Friday by an easterly wave which advances from near the Florida peninsula to across the eastern half of the Gulf along with the adjacent coastal areas. The sea breeze will support chance pops over much of the coastal counties and extreme southeast Mississippi on Wednesday and Thursday while further inland dry conditions are expected. It's possible that a surface low will develop with the easterly wave and progress across the region on Friday, but even if this does not occur the convective environment will become more favorable with the departure of the upper ridge along with much better deep layer moisture flowing into the area. For now have gone with chance to good chance pops for much of the area on Friday, but there is the potential for higher rain chances depending on how the pattern plays out. Plenty of deep layer moisture remains in place over the area on Saturday and have opted for chance to likely pops. A High Risk of rip currents and a High Surf Advisory will be in effect until 7 am Thursday morning. /29
MARINE
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
A light to moderate southeasterly flow will established today and strengthens as low pressure develops in the southwestern Gulf.
Seas are also expected to increase as we head into early next week. Small craft will need to exercise caution by Monday and conditions will likely exceed Small Craft Advisory criteria by the middle of the week. Conditions will also need to be monitored for potential gale conditions as the low strengthens. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the forecast.
BB/03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 88 74 88 74 87 74 89 73 / 80 40 70 40 50 30 40 20 Pensacola 89 77 90 78 89 77 89 75 / 80 40 70 40 50 40 40 20 Destin 87 77 90 78 89 77 90 75 / 70 30 60 40 40 40 30 30 Evergreen 93 72 92 71 91 70 91 69 / 60 20 40 20 20 10 10 10 Waynesboro 93 72 89 71 87 71 90 70 / 60 30 70 30 40 20 20 10 Camden 94 73 93 71 90 72 91 70 / 40 20 40 10 20 10 10 0 Crestview 92 72 93 71 93 71 93 69 / 70 20 40 20 30 20 20 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Thursday morning for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Thursday morning for FLZ202-204-206.
High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MBPA1 | 3 mi | 71 min | 83°F | 80°F | ||||
| MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL | 6 mi | 59 min | ESE 9.9G | 87°F | 29.95 | |||
| PTOA1 | 8 mi | 71 min | 82°F | 78°F | ||||
| OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL | 10 mi | 59 min | 85°F | 29.98 | ||||
| EFLA1 | 11 mi | 71 min | 82°F | 78°F | ||||
| WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL | 17 mi | 104 min | 0 | 76°F | 29.98 | 76°F | ||
| DILA1 | 22 mi | 59 min | SE 14G | 85°F | 29.93 | |||
| GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS | 23 mi | 104 min | ESE 12 | 85°F | 29.95 | 77°F | ||
| FRMA1 | 24 mi | 59 min | ESE 11G | 29.94 | ||||
| PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS | 29 mi | 59 min | 88°F | |||||
| PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS | 33 mi | 59 min | SE 8.9G | 29.93 | ||||
| 42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy | 45 mi | 49 min | SE 12G | 83°F | 86°F | 29.95 | 78°F | |
| PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL | 48 mi | 59 min | SSE 7G | 87°F | 29.96 |
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Wind History graph: BFM
(wind in knots)Fowl River
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:00 AM CDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:50 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:10 AM CDT 1.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:05 PM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 07:56 PM CDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:22 PM CDT 0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:00 AM CDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:50 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:10 AM CDT 1.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:05 PM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 07:56 PM CDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:22 PM CDT 0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Fowl River, Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0.8 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.2 |
| 8 am |
| 1.2 |
| 9 am |
| 1.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.3 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Mobile Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:00 AM CDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:03 AM CDT 0.43 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:50 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:09 AM CDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:29 PM CDT -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:04 PM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 07:55 PM CDT Sunset
Sun -- 07:59 PM CDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:00 AM CDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:03 AM CDT 0.43 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:50 AM CDT Sunrise
Sun -- 09:09 AM CDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:29 PM CDT -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:04 PM CDT Moonrise
Sun -- 07:55 PM CDT Sunset
Sun -- 07:59 PM CDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Mobile Bay Entrance, Alabama Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.2 |
| 2 am |
| 0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.4 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0 |
| 10 am |
| -0.2 |
| 11 am |
| -0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Mobile, AL,
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