Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Home, KS
June 2, 2024 5:05 PM CDT (22:05 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:59 AM Sunset 8:49 PM Moonrise 2:20 AM Moonset 3:46 PM |
FXUS63 KTOP 021942 AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Periodic thunderstorm chances remain through Tuesday night with severe weather potential
- Quiet stretch from Wednesday into late week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Central portions of Kansas and Nebraska have seen several rounds of high-based showers and thunderstorms in the past 10-15 hours. Recent rounds have resulted from persistent mid-level warm-air advection over outflow boundaries from previous convection. Outside of this region, destabilization has occurred with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg in eastern Kansas and 3000 J/kg in far western Kansas where dewpoints in the lower 60s were common in a well mixed boundary layer under mid- level lapse rates of 9 C/km. Some convective inhibition remains in both areas though scattered convection has already formed in western Nebraska and southeast Colorado.
The latter areas should be the main regions to monitor in the coming hours where a modest mid-level wave will approach this evening.
Forcing for ascent locally is rather unorganized though some convergence has materialized downstream of where daytime mixing has taken place. 12Z models have had little handle on the nearby precipitation today, but even the few 12Z and more recent runs that have some semblance of it continue to form convective complexes upstream this evening and traverse them in to near the local area.
Local mid-level lapse rates should be around 8 C/km with MUCAPE falling from around 2000 J/kg west to 1000 J/kg east, and with a low- level jet around 40 knots the support for severe convection remains in place, still mainly a hail and wind threat, with diminishing support with eastward extent, though the aforementioned precipitation has impacted continues between the High Plains and here.
Have left small precipitation chances going for Monday into Monday night with at least small potential for more outflow boundaries lingering. The next greatest thunderstorm chances come Tuesday afternoon and evening as the northern Plains shortwave shoves a cold front into the region. Modest upper level support continues to be forecast this far south. Instability parameters showing around 2500 J/kg MLCAPE with little CIN with dewpoints around 70 (though there will be some low stratus potential) and deep-layer shear around 30 knots to support severe weather, with a hail and wind concern.
A drier 48 hours or so continue to be anticipated from Wednesday into Thursday night with a less humid airmass followed by a more modified Canadian airmass in the latter portions of this period.
Precipitation chances return late in the week into the weekend with moisture increasing under the continued northwest flow aloft.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
VFR conditions are expected through at least 05Z, but chances for showers and thunderstorms increase around this time.
Confidence in the evolution of this activity remains low but enough model agreement and observational information remains to go with a PROB30 group. Minor wind gusts should develop shortly in decent afternoon insolation and mixing. Could see gusts after sunset as a moderate low-level forms.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Periodic thunderstorm chances remain through Tuesday night with severe weather potential
- Quiet stretch from Wednesday into late week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Central portions of Kansas and Nebraska have seen several rounds of high-based showers and thunderstorms in the past 10-15 hours. Recent rounds have resulted from persistent mid-level warm-air advection over outflow boundaries from previous convection. Outside of this region, destabilization has occurred with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg in eastern Kansas and 3000 J/kg in far western Kansas where dewpoints in the lower 60s were common in a well mixed boundary layer under mid- level lapse rates of 9 C/km. Some convective inhibition remains in both areas though scattered convection has already formed in western Nebraska and southeast Colorado.
The latter areas should be the main regions to monitor in the coming hours where a modest mid-level wave will approach this evening.
Forcing for ascent locally is rather unorganized though some convergence has materialized downstream of where daytime mixing has taken place. 12Z models have had little handle on the nearby precipitation today, but even the few 12Z and more recent runs that have some semblance of it continue to form convective complexes upstream this evening and traverse them in to near the local area.
Local mid-level lapse rates should be around 8 C/km with MUCAPE falling from around 2000 J/kg west to 1000 J/kg east, and with a low- level jet around 40 knots the support for severe convection remains in place, still mainly a hail and wind threat, with diminishing support with eastward extent, though the aforementioned precipitation has impacted continues between the High Plains and here.
Have left small precipitation chances going for Monday into Monday night with at least small potential for more outflow boundaries lingering. The next greatest thunderstorm chances come Tuesday afternoon and evening as the northern Plains shortwave shoves a cold front into the region. Modest upper level support continues to be forecast this far south. Instability parameters showing around 2500 J/kg MLCAPE with little CIN with dewpoints around 70 (though there will be some low stratus potential) and deep-layer shear around 30 knots to support severe weather, with a hail and wind concern.
A drier 48 hours or so continue to be anticipated from Wednesday into Thursday night with a less humid airmass followed by a more modified Canadian airmass in the latter portions of this period.
Precipitation chances return late in the week into the weekend with moisture increasing under the continued northwest flow aloft.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
VFR conditions are expected through at least 05Z, but chances for showers and thunderstorms increase around this time.
Confidence in the evolution of this activity remains low but enough model agreement and observational information remains to go with a PROB30 group. Minor wind gusts should develop shortly in decent afternoon insolation and mixing. Could see gusts after sunset as a moderate low-level forms.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMYZ MARYSVILLE MUNI,KS | 7 sm | 10 min | S 10 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Lt Rain | 79°F | 68°F | 70% | 29.79 |
Topeka, KS,
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